How Hun Sen Vaccination Programme Leaves Millions Exposed

 

“We really don’t know what the real number [of the population] is [for a herd immunity]. I think the real range is somewhere between 70 to 90 percent. But, I’m not going to say 90 percent.”

 

White House Chief Medical Advisor to Trump and Biden Administration, 24 December 2020, The New York Times

 

Hun Sen does not say why he concludes only two thirds of Cambodians needs vaccination against Covid-19. He is to acquire a mere 20 million doses of vaccines, which is enough for 10 million out of the 16.7 million people (60%).

Assuming all vaccines coming to Hun Sen have a high efficacy and/or effectiveness of 79%, which is as much as what Sinopharm claims for their vaccine, the total “protected” population is a mere 47%. Hence, more than half of the population remains exposed.

The protected population is likely far less though, as the above assumption is unrealistic. The average efficacy/effectiveness of vaccine mix for Cambodians is far less than the 79%. Hun Sen, who boasts he has billions worth of gold bars and cash in reserves, says he cannot afford any vaccine that costs more than $4 a shot. That is, only AstraZeneca vaccine whose efficacy/effectiveness is as low as 62% fits the bill. He rules out a Pfizer option, which is 95% efficacious/effective, due to its high cost of $20 per dose and technical complexities for the vaccine storage, transportation, and distribution that requires an extremely low temperature of -70C. Thus, the protected population will fall below 47%.

This 47% or less protection is far cry from a level necessary to achieve a herd immunity that could make all Cambodians safe. Herd immunity occurs when a significant part of a population becomes immune to an infectious disease, limiting further disease spread for the benefit of all. Dr Fauci reckons over 70% of the population would need to be effectively protected, or vaccinated, for the herd immunity to take hold. Hun Sen’s vaccination programme will thus fail the Fauci test.

There are further complications with the Hun Sen vaccination programme. First, the rollout is sluggish. There are only 7,091 persons receiving their first jab in the first six days. At this rate, it will take almost 17 months to administer all the first batch of 600,000 doses of Sinopharm vaccines Hun Sen has received from China. Whether by design or sheer incompetence, he seems unhurried to secure the protection, while other governments are rushing to make their citizens resistant to Covid-19.

Second, the vaccination programme can only become less effective with an arrival in Cambodia of the UK Covid variant. Early reports suggest only Pfizer vaccine, which Hun Sen rules out, is useful against the variant, albeit with less degree.

Though the vaccination programme may be ineffective, Hun Sen still gets his priority right, in terms of whom his programme is protecting. While other rollouts give importance to frontline health workers and elderly, Hun Sen’s target groups to get the first jabs include his families, top minions, and a few journalists who are not in jail. Half of the first batch of the Chinese vaccines goes to armed forces that Hun Sen is grateful for keeping him in power.

Thus, while the select groups will enjoy some level of immunity from Covid-19, at least eight million Cambodians will not.

Ung Bun Ang

21ii21

Fake News You Can Trust

So, Hun Sen refuses to comment on internal affairs of Myanmar after a successful military coup on 1 Feb 2021 that sweeps winners of their general election on 8 November 2020 out of power. Senior leaders of victorious National League for Democracy are arrested.

The refusal would be a noble political posturing if it were not so hypocritical and inconsistent.

He has meddled in Myanmar internal affairs after the election, at least in the eyes of Myanmar military chief Min Aung Hlaing. The chief says it is unlikely the military, which has had a full control over the country for decades, will accept the election outcomes claiming widespread election frauds.

Nevertheless, Hun Sen’s embassy in Yangon certifies the election to be “free and fair” and reiterates his support for Myanmar’s democratic process. Hun Sen follows up a few days later with a congratulatory letter to State counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi for her party’s overwhelming election victory. General Min Aung Hlaing would want Hun Sen to explain if that is not an interference into Myanmar affairs, what is.

Then again, the man just wants to be nice to whoever wins, never mind hypocrisy.

 

“For the time being, in Yangon [and Myanmar] it is happening. The President and the State Counsellor are arrested and detained… But Cambodia shall not make any comments on the internal affairs of any countries regardless if they are within the framework of ASEAN as member states or outside.”

Prime Minister Hun Sen, 2 February 2021, VOA Khmer

 

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Why CNRP Return Plans Omit Sea Option

 

It surprises nobody outside the CNRP leadership that they fail again in their plan to enter Cambodia. Despite Hun Sen’s court summons for them to appear in court to answer treason charges, Hun Sen refuses them entry visas. He prefers them in exile where they are less disruptive to his peace.

The interesting question is why the CNRP repeats the same thing and expect a different outcome. They claim that they have learned a lot from the first failure in November 2019. For the second attempt, they beg the King to intervene while insulting him. They tell the court to grow spine and stand up to Hun Sen. They send in a genteel vice-president instead of a rough and tumble acting president. They promise no more pre-announcement of dates and itineraries for the second trip, only to break it.

Actually, they have not learned much. Both return plans in essence still depend on a naive belief that Hun Sen respects his own law, or is stupid, or democratic enough to let them in, or all the above.

This leads to fascinating questions on a real intention of the CNRP return plans. Are they fearful of Hun Sen as much as they say Hun Sen fears them? Are they committed, as much as they claim they are, to rescuing the nation when they have already secured a comfortable lifestyle in exile? Why have they deprived themselves of lateral or creative thinking that extends beyond entering Cambodia either by air or land? Or would thinking outside the box involve too much risk?

A simple truth is that they would be able to enter Cambodia any time. Anyone can enter a country without either passport or visa, or both, if they are committed to their goal and ready for any consequences. Drug traffickers, trade smugglers, and others do it all the time. Even Ying Lak Shinawatra sneaks out of Thailand by boat into Sihanoukville to escape from a Thai court summon in 2016. She then receives an instant Khmer passport and flies out of Phnom Penh for Hong Kong along with Hun Sen’s compliments.

It is certain the CNRP leadership could, by boat, land anywhere on the 443 km stretch of Cambodia’s coastline after leaving from a beach in Malaysia or Thailand. The Cambodian coastline security is most likely lax because Hun Sen’s coastline patrol system cannot be so well-resourced. Coastguards are either corrupt, or susceptible to taking bribes. Should the CNRP local networking in Sihanoukville be effective, some of those guards could well be their supporters or sympathisers and even facilitate their arrival.

Indeed, this is a viable option for a third attempt, if there is one, to enter Cambodia. Indeed, the CNRP leadership may have already considered and discarded it, due to a bankrupt notion that they would not risk doing it without Hun Sen’s passport and visa. Or, have they outsourced their thinking to the man whose sole aim is to ensure they cannot rescue themselves, let alone the nation? 

Ung Bun Ang

21i21

 

Fake News You Can Use

It may be a bit late, but as they say it is better late than never. The CNRP Youth Movement in South Korea has blurted out in public their frustration and criticism of Sam Rainsy’s behaviours. They say he acts on impulse putting their followers at risk. They ask him to be responsible and stop behaviours that are destructive to the party and national interests.

Now it is clear why Sam Rainsy and the leadership do not want to have anything to do with succession planning that nourishes and grows their successors. They simply cannot manage different ideas of their followers.

Many in the party leadership share the youth’s sentiment, but they are not willing to speak out even in private. They say they would do so when they are in power. This is a crooked thinking that overestimates their influence over the acting president; if they do not dare have a quiet word with him now, how they believe he would care when he is in power.

 

“ក្នុងនាមជាថ្នាក់ដឹកនាំនៃគណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិ លោក​សម​រង្ស៊ី ត្រូវបង្ហាញនូវការទទួលខុសត្រូវខ្ពស់ចំពោះជោគវាសនារបស់គណបក្សនិងសកម្មជនអ្នកគាំទ្ររាប់លាននាក់ដែលកំពុងជ្រកក្រោមដំបូលរបបរាជានិយមអាស្រ័យរដ្ឋធម្មនុញ្ញ​និងប្រជាធិបតេយ្យសេរីនិយមពហុបក្ស។ លោកសម​ រង្ស៊ី ក៏មិនត្រូវនិយាយអ្វីតាមតែអារម្មណ៍នឹកឃើញផ្ទាល់ខ្លួន ផ្ទុយពីគោលការណ៍ និងគោលជំហរបស់គណបក្ស ហើយដែលធ្វើអោយប៉ះពាល់ដល់ប្រយោជន៍ជាតិ​ កិត្តិយសបុគ្គល និងសន្តិសុខរបស់អ្នកគាំទ្ររាប់លាននាក់នោះទេ។”

សេចក្តីថ្លែងការណ៍របស់ចលនា​យុវជន​​គណបក្ស​សង្រ្គោះជាតិ​ប្រចាំ​នៅ​ប្រទេស​កូរ៉េ​ខាង​ត្បូង ទំព័រហ្វេសប៊ុក ថ្ងៃ​ទី១១ ខែ​មករា ឆ្នាំ​២០២១

 

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Pseng-Pseng in Khmer: Super Tax Collector?

 

Pseng-Pseng in Khmer: Gambling Den Sharing Their Loots

 

2020 Annual Awards

 

The year 2020 may see the unusual become usual and the extraordinary turn ordinary. Yet, Covid-19 has not deterred some lucky few from their well-deserved Pseng-Pseng Annual Awards.

Money Spinner Award – NagaWorld (Naga Corp Ltd)

NagaWorld has for years secured from Hun Sen a monopoly to run a gambling den in Phnom Penh. For three years to 2019, it amasses a staggering net profit of US$1.167 billion. The lucrative license to print money has been extended for another 10 years to 2045.

Now, Hun Sen throws in another cash cow to the NagaWorld pot. It is to build modern entertainment centre and hotel concrete jungles only 500 metres from Angkor Wat park ground. Expect this sacred icon to become a part of the theme park like a Disneyland development. Never mind that the Naga concretes will destroy serendipity, serenity, and aesthetic of the Angkor awe.

Yet, there is no free lunch. Grand benefactor Hun Sen must earn a chunk of cash under the table from these money printing permits. He cannot be as stupid as his opponents say he is.

  

Super Tax Collector Award – Kong Vibol

Director-General of Tax Department Kong Vibol claims 2020 tax revenue will be about 1% higher than that of the previous year’s collection. This means, in defiance of Covid trade restrictions and havoc, there are more taxpayers in 2020, or the same or smaller number of taxpayers together pay more tax. How impressive… if the 2020 tax collection were true.

The tourism sector that contributes 32.7% to the 2019 GDP claims there is no cashflow to pay for their tax liabilities this year. The Cambodia Association of Travel Agents President Chhay Sivlin is now asking for a cancellation of all outstanding tax liabilities for the sector. Unless she is a whinger-for-nothing type, the plea makes the super tax collector a liar. The Covid-19 may also send the garment industry that contributes about 16% to the GDP into a similar predicament.

Double-Talk Award – Premier Hun Sen

Hun Sen says his government has kept under control what he refers to as the 28 November Community Outbreak Incident. Covid-19 has sent CPP high-profilers into quarantine in droves.

But he says he cannot yet close the case due to the following five reasons. First, health officials do not know all locations the infected have been 14 days before the outbreak. Second, many potential infected have not come forward to report on their contacts or for testing for fear of being placed under quarantine. Third, those who are in contact with the infected have not complied with the testing regime. Fourth, it is unclear if those under the quarantine have undertaken a required number of tests to verify they are negative. Fifth, the health officials are uncertain about the number of those who have come to contact with the infected in regional and provincial areas.

Thus, if there are still so many unknown and uncertainty according to his statement, how can Hun Sen conclude that he has the Covid spread under control? His double-talk is almost an art form.

 

Enjoy 2021, anyhow. The Huns and their mob will.

 

Ung Bun Ang

27xii20

 

Honourable Mention

 

Copycat – Sam Rainsy

Well, it is said if you cannot beat them, join them. After years of concealing frustrations, Sam Rainsy is coming out with guns blazing. The unrefined language he recently uses again and again to deride Hun Sen and the King may make Hun Sen, who is a master of brutish language proud; they say imitation is the best form of flattery, is it not?

Then again, it may also stuff up Mu Sochua’s plan to return to Cambodia on 4 January, unless it is all along meant to be a mere political posturing for point scoring.

 

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Hun Sen Sets Up a Blame Game

 

«ដូចនេះ​ខ្ញុំ​សុំ​អំពាវនាវ​ចាប់ពី​ថ្ងៃ​នេះ​ទៅ​រយៈពេល​ ១៥ ថ្ងៃ​យ៉ាង​តិច គឺជា​ដំណាក់កាល​សាកល្បង​ដ៏ធំ​បំផុត​​របស់​កម្ពុជា​ ឆ្លង​រួច​ ឬ​មិន​រួច​គឺ​វា​នៅ​ក្នុង​ពេល​នេះឯង។ បើប្រឹង​តែ​រដ្ឋ ប្រជាពលរដ្ឋ​មិន​ប្រឹង​ទេ មិន​ចូលរួម​ទេនោះ​គឺ​មិន​ជោគជ័យ​ទេ។​»

​នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុន សែន ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍ ថ្ងៃ​ទី១ ខែ​ធ្នូ ឆ្នាំ២០២០

 

«ប៉ុន្តែ​មក​ដល់ខែ​១១​នេះ ប្រែ​ប្រួល​បន្តិច ដោយសារមាន​រដ្ឋមន្រ្តី​ក្រសួង​ការ​បរទេស​មួយ​ប្រទេស​មួយ គឺ​ ​ហុងគ្រី។ គាត់​មាន​ជំងឺ​ហ្នឹង តែ​គាត់​មក​កម្ពុជា។ ដល់​ពេល​អញ្ចឹង អ្នក​ធ្វើ​ការ​ជាមួយ បាន​ឆ្លង​មួយ​ចំនួន។ ប៉ុន្តែ​មួយ​ចំនួន​ទៀត​អត់​ឆ្លង​ទេ។»

រដ្ឋមន្រ្តី​ក្រសួង​មហាផ្ទៃ ស ខេង សំឡេង​វីអូអេខ្មែរ ថ្ងៃ​សុក្រ ទី១៣ វិច្ឆិកា២០២០

 

“It is very clear the diplomat [in Bangkok Hungarian embassy] was infected by the Hungarian minister [Péter Szijjártó]. The infection happened in Thailand. We have evidence to say so.”

 

Sophon Iamsirithavorn, chief of the Communicable Diseases Division, Thailand Department of Disease Control, Khmer Times, 11 November 2020

 

«ប៉ុន្តែ ឥឡូវនេះ ប្រសិនបើអ្នកទាំងអស់គ្នាពាក់ម៉ាស់ តើខ្ញុំត្រូវពាក់អ្វីទៀត? »

នាយករដ្ឋមន្រ្តី ហ៊ុន សែន ខ្មែរថែមស៏ ២៦ ខែវិច្ឆិកា ២០២០

 

«ពេលវេលា​នេះ​មិនមែន​ជា​ពេលវេលា​ស្តី​បន្ទោស​គ្នា ហើយ​ក៏មិនមែន​ជា​ពេលវេលា​ទម្លាក់​​កំហុស​ឱ្យ​អ្នក​នេះ​ឱ្យ​អ្នក​នោះ​ទេ តែ​ជា​ពេលវេលា​ត្រូវ​សាមគ្គីភាព​គ្នា។ »​

នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុន សែន ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍ ថ្ងៃ​ទី១ ខែ​ធ្នូ ឆ្នាំ២០២០

It seems Covid-19 community infections Hun Sen dubs as “incidents” have taken off with vengeance. They send many anxious government elites including Hun Sen himself into quarantine. Hun Sen warns the first half of December 2020 is a critical period for Cambodia. He says if the community outbreaks are not contained, it will be disastrous.

It is not a surprise that the elites ignite the outbreaks. After all, Hun Sen has perfected a regime of privileges and entitlements for themselves riddled with recklessness and double standard. It is conducive to a perfect storm.

First, the recklessness is mind-boggling. Prak Sokhon says visiting Hungarian Peter Szijjarto has been certified Covid-free before he lands in Phnom-Penh. Sar Kheng says he has not. Only one of these two deputy premiers knows what he talks about. Prak Sokhon is happy to let loose Szijjarto to rub shoulders with his local cohorts. Sar Kheng prefers to whine post-factum. Thailand claims Szijjarto has infected others after arriving in Bangkok from Phnom-Penh.

Second, the double standard is astounding. Hun Sen calls for a public cooperation to quell the transmission, yet he says he does not have to wear a mask because everyone has already done so. He exercises the elite privilege of being special, arrogant, and above all rules. While they can take a comfort refuge in home quarantine, garment workers are packed like sardines in their truck transports to and from work, and on factory floors, risking community infections.

Hun Sen must feel the Covid heat and plans to deflect any blame. He is setting up a blame game, while saying it is not time to condemn each other. He asks for a full co-operation from the public warning their commitment and effort will determine a success or failure of his outbreak response. He holds them responsible.

He must know a chunk of the public will breach health guidelines for curbing the community infections. In his crosshairs are communities that are too poor to follow them. For instance, a recent survey by Professor LeBaron of University of Sheffield shows some 88 percent of Cambodian garment workers have been forced to reduce food consumption due to lower incomes. Then there are over a million of migrant workers who are travelling back and forth to Thailand looking for work. The destitute will risk anything by going anywhere to secure incomes and food. It is inconceivable that adequate benefits from Hun Sen’s economic measures during Covid pandemic, like cash distributions, will reach the poor in a regime riddled with corruption and nepotism.

Thus, Hun Sen has secured a perfect scapegoat for his potential Covid disaster. He is smart to quickly rule out his initial plan to declare a state of emergency, which would deprive him of blaming anyone else for his fiasco. This could become another Hun Sen’s legacy: the CPP elites keep their privileges and entitlements without taking any responsibility for their Covid outbreaks and blame others for their inability to put the genie back into the bottle.

 

Ung Bun Ang

10xii20

 

Fake News You Can Laugh At

In what sounds like a beggar-tone, Sok Eysen virtually bends his knees and beg Joe Biden for the US debt forgiveness. He stoops so low as he asks for what he says only a tiny sum.

Yes, Biden, who calls Xi Jing Ping a thug, may just do that for the sake of, as Eysan says, “collecting friends” like Hun Sen and “ease the political tension in the world” that Sok Eysan implies Hun Sen has created. How grandiose his master has been.

“When he won the election, Joe Biden gave hints that he will collect friends and ease the political tension in the world…Meanwhile, I think Cambodia’s debt [to the US] is very small. Therefore, I think there is a possibility that the US may cancel the debt or use it to help build and develop Cambodia. I think it is a good thing.”

Cambodian People’s Party spokesman Sok Eysa, Khmer Times, 30 November 2020

 

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