Sunday, 15 April 2018



Happy New Year



How Hun Sen Secures New Government Legitimacy


«អត្រានៃការចូលរួមបោះឆ្នោត ទោះជាមិនដល់៣០ភាគរយក៏ដោយ អត់មានសិទ្ធិបដិសេធទេ។ អ៊ីចឹង ច្បាប់ស្រុកយើងទាំងរដ្ឋធម្មនុញ្ញមិនមានចែងពាក់ព័ន្ធនឹងរឿងហ្នឹងទេ។»

ប្រធានគណៈកម្មាធិការជាតិរៀបចំការបោះឆ្នោត ស៊ិក ប៊ុនហុក ​ថ្ងៃ​ទី​១១ ខែ​មេសា ២០១៨  ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍​ 


អ៊ីចឹង​ហើយ​បើ​ការបោះឆ្នោត​នោះ មិន​មាន​ការ​ចូលរួម​ពី​គណបក្ស​សង្គ្រោះជាតិ​ទេ ខ្ញុំ​សូម​អំពាវនាវ​ឱ្យ​ប្រជាពលរដ្ឋ​ខ្មែរ កុំ​ចូលរួម​នៅ​ក្នុង​ការបោះឆ្នោត សូម​ធ្វើ​ពហិការ​ការបោះឆ្នោត​នោះ ហើយ​សូម​អំពាវនាវ​ឱ្យ​អ្នកសង្កេតការណ៍​ទាំង​ជាតិ និង​អន្តរជាតិ កុំ​ទៅ​ចូល​សង្កេតការណ៍​អី ព្រោះ​វា​គ្មាន​បានការ​អ្វី​នោះ​ទេ​ចំពោះ​ការសង្កេត​ការណ៍​បោះឆ្នោត​ដែល​គេ​ដឹង​លទ្ធផល​មុន​ថ្ងៃ​បោះឆ្នោត​ទៅទៀត ទៅ​សង្កេតការណ៍​គ្រាន់តែ​ប្រថាប់ត្រា​ទទួលស្គាល់​ការបោះឆ្នោត​ទេ។ សូម​កុំ​ទទួលស្គាល់​ការបោះឆ្នោត​លេងសើច​បែបនេះ»

អតីត​ប្រធាន​គណបក្ស​សង្គ្រោះ​ជាតិ លោក សម រង្ស៊ី  ថ្ងៃទី មេសា​ ២០១៨  អាស៊ីសេរី


ចំណុចដែលពាក់ព័ន្ធទៅនឹងប្រព័ន្ធបោះឆ្នោត... គណបក្សប្រជាជនមិនជំទាស់ទេ នៅពេលដែលឧកាសបានហុចមកដល់ ហើយប្រព័ន្ធបោះឆ្នោតវាសមស្រប ដើម្បីឲ្យយើងប្រើប្រាស់សិទ្ធិរបស់ពលរដ្ឋនៅក្រៅប្រទេស ប៉ុន្ដែត្រូវមានលក្ខខ័ណ្ឌច្បាប់របស់វាច្បាស់លាស់អំពីបញ្ហានេះ។

នាយក​រដ្ឋមន្ត្រី​ហ៊ុនសែន ថ្ងៃទី ១៦​ មិនា​ ២០១៨ ទូរទស្សន៍អប្សារា 


Amid calls for the July elections boycott, the NEC Chairman is right that even less than 30% (maybe zero) voter turnout will still be legal. Everything in Cambodia is so legalistic that it puts the rest of world to shame.

It may be legal, but Hun Sen knows a low turnout will put a huge question mark over his next government. Only those who have rocks in their head will ever doubt whether Hun Sen will win the July elections. Given the 86% turnout for the 2017 commune elections, which can be one of the legitimacy benchmarks, Hun Sen must realise he has an uphill legitimacy battle on his hand. It will be an incredible legacy if he can succeed here after decimating a formidable opposition.

Hence, the main challenge for Hun Sen now is to secure a high voter turnout. He has done his almost to ramp it up. His frequent rants to garment workers and new graduates have intensified and are unlikely to fizzle out between now and the elections. Never mind if factory owners cannot be impressed with extensive down-times when their workers are at Hun Sen’s monologues.

And he has two more options. One is to resuscitate the CNRP for the elections. Hun Sen will need to work out an optimum timing for them to come in – not so soon that they can cause irritations, not so late that they will make no difference to the legitimacy. This option is easy because the opposition is ready to be sucked in. Sam Rainsy boasts he will need only one day before the elections to beat Hun Sen. Yet, he has not revealed a practical power grab strategy after his elections victory; he must be either ingenious in strategic planning, or naïve to expect Hun Sen to just walk away from power.

Another major option is to allow voting by more than a million migrant workers and overseas Cambodians whose voting rights are already enshrined in the Constitution. With all pork-barrelling he has showered local garment workers and a planned minimum wage system for all, the migrant workers can, not only vote, but vote for him as well. Moreover, the overseas Cambodians who are keen voters can also boost the turnout. If Hun Sen is right that 90% of them are his supporters, it will be another win-win for him.

Anyhow, Hun Sen has already discarded these two groups of potential turnout enhancers saying they cannot vote because of the current election laws and technicality. He might want to reconsider if these were the problems. He must know his minions in the three branches of government will piss in whatever direction he tells them to. Legal and technical hindrances have not stopped him, for instance, from dissolving his formidable opponent and re-allocating their parliamentary and commune seats to his party and elections losers.

Still, the easiest option for Hun Sen is to let CNRP help for a higher turnout in the July elections that he has already won.

Ung Bun Ang
15iv18


By the Way

Now it is clear why CNRP’s recent requests for a negotiation with Hun Sen end in failure every time. They have no idea what they have that they can force Hun Sen’s hand.

CNRP stalwart and CNRM co-founder Eng Chhai Eang is dead right that every conflict ends only with negotiations. He is dead right again that successful negotiations require concessions from all conflicting parties – sort of gives and takes.

However, when asked what CNRP can offer as concessions in a negotiation with Hun Sen, Eng Chhai Eang says they have nothing – they are just a victim suffering from Hun Sen’s wrong doings. It is not clear whether the co-founder understands his own statements on the art of negotiations and conflict resolutions.

But they are lucky that Hun Sen is smarter and may decide they can be of service to him, again. This time will be to help legitimise his new government after the July elections. And it is possible that they will dive head first into an empty pool when Hun Sen invites them to the elections they are going to lose.


“[​ក្នុង​ការ​ចរចា ​ដើម្បី​បញ្ចប់​ជម្លោះ​នេះ] យើងត្រូវតែឈរនៅលើគោលការណ៍មួយ គឺគោរពគ្នា ឲ្យតម្លៃគ្នា ហើយយើងអាចធ្វើសម្បទានគ្នាទៅវិញទៅមក ដើម្បីផល ប្រយោជន៍ជាតិ និងផលប្រយោជន៍ប្រជារាស្រ្ដខ្មែរ... គណបក្សប្រឆាំងអត់មាន សម្បទានអីទេ ព្រោះគណបក្ស ប្រឆាំងជាគណបក្សប្រឆាំង ដែលរងគ្រោះ រងគ្រោះ ដោយសារគណបក្សកាន់ អំណាចរំលោភបំពាន ព្រោះយើងអត់មានអីខុសទេ។”

អ្នក​ដឹក​នាំចលនាសង្គ្រោះជាតិ អេងឆៃអ៊ាង  ថ្ងៃទី៤ មេសា​២០១៨  វិទ្យុបារាំងអន្ដរជាតិ




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Pseng-Pseng is published irregularly. Previous issues are archived at pseng-pseng.blogspot.com


Friday, 30 March 2018



A Post-Mortem: Hun Sen’s Dishonour



“The summit will be used for the [Australian] prime minister and ministers actually to engage their counterparts or aspects of our relationship, including the matter [Hun Sen’s threat of violence] that you [Australian senator Penny Wong] have raised today.”

Australian Foreign Affairs Secretary Frances Adamson, 5 March 2018, The Phnom Penh Post



«… រឿង​អី​ដែល​ [​យើង​] ​ត្រូវ​ហោះ​ពី​កម្ពុជា​ទៅ​ឲ្យ​គេ​ស្ដី​ឲ្យ​នៅ​ប្រទេស​អូស្ត្រាលី?អូស្ត្រាលី​គួរ​តែ​អរគុណ​កម្ពុជា ​មិនមែន​ហៅ​កម្ពុជា​ទៅ​ស្ដី​ឲ្យ​នោះ​ទេ កុំ​ច្រឡំ។​»​

នាយក​រដ្ឋមន្ត្រី​ហ៊ុនសែន  ថ្ងៃទី២២ កុម្ភ: ២០១៨  ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍​ 



According to Hun Sen, his trip to Australia is a resounding success. Among other claimed achievements, he boasts an Australian official development assistance (ODA) of A$87.40 million; he brags about travelling with a motorcade escort and a small Cambodian flag flying on an official car. He flatters himself that his visit is an honour for Australia.

Yet, the success seems far from being resounding. Hun Sen may not realise Australia has pulled a fast one on him. The ODA amount is already in the Australian May budget last year for 2017-18 handout to Cambodia. This means, whether he turns up or not, Cambodia has already secured it. Moreover, if he must know, the amount is few million dollars less than that of the previous year. This is not something Hun Sen should brag about unless he intends to mislead his supporters.

The ODA stunt allows PM Malcom Turnbull, who insists on “frank engagement” with all ASEAN countries, to rein in Hun Sen and take him to task behind closed door on his violence threat to Australian citizens, democracy, human rights, and the July elections. Hun Sen must be satisfied with the Australian trick as he does not carry out his threat to use his ASEAN veto to block the Sydney Declaration at the end of the ASEAN-Australia Special Summit. He has been prepared to be the Summit spoiler. Incidentally, it does not seem a great begging year for Hun Sen. The US announces cut to an aid they have already cut; now Australia approves the aid that they have already committed.

Furthermore, at the Sydney Summit Hun Sen is treated as if he is an ASEAN leader of no significant consequence. While those leaders are courteous to each other with polished and respectable manners, they appear to marginalise his presence. First, at a group photo of the leaders with an Opera House background, they choose to ignore Hun Sen; he says he has been busy in the toilet. Some would quip he must be suffering the effect of the dummy burnings – more severely than he has anticipated.

Second, on a Sydney Harbour ferry trip, the ASEAN leaders congregate leaving Hun Sen alone on front row seats. As there is no published reason for the isolation, public speculations abound. Perhaps they do not wish to be associated with him when they see protest photos and negative headlines in local newspapers about him annihilating his political oppositions. They may think the Cambodian premier needs to do some serious thinking and leave him to it. They may be right as Hun Sen does not look lonely, but being in deep thought, perhaps working out how to pursue those dummy burners home to beat them up.

While Hun Sen may be right that he is not flying all the way to Sydney to be lectured on sensitive issues, he may not learn from Australia that his absolute power is limited to Cambodia. Outside his comfort zone, he can be dishonourable and humiliated, can’t he?


Ung Bun Ang
30iii18


By the Way


The crack within CPP is becoming clearer with a leak from senior CPP figures. Stay tuned – more leaks will come out unless there is a CPP implosion.


“<Hun Sen was told by the Vietnamese very bluntly that he’d been in power too long and it was time to go,> the insider with close ties to senior figures in the premier’s ruling Cambodia People’s Party (CPP), which is believed to be divided over his tactics to sideline the main opposition party, told Asia Times.”

Reporter Alan Parkhouse, Hun Sen Willing to Risk Losing his Oldest Ally, 27 March, 2018, Asia Times







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Pseng-Pseng is published irregularly. Previous issues are archived at pseng-pseng.blogspot.com


Thursday, 15 March 2018



How Hun Sen Widens his Power Base Cracks



“Due to an important personal issue, I delegate full power as chief of joint staff to Lieutenant General Hun Manet to assume the duty as of the date of signature [21 February 2018].”


Chief of Joint Staff General Kun Kim, 2 March 2018, Khmer Times



“I am a law enforcer, and the armed forces defend the government. Provided that there are orders, I must enforce, I must defend the government. Even… if we expend flesh and blood, we must enforce the law.”


RCAF Deputy Commander-in-chief General Kun Kim, 31 August 2016, The Phnom Penh Post



A battle line has been drawn within the CPP. Hun Sen fires the first shot by replacing four-star general Kun Kim with his son Manet for the top job. Pseng-Pseng’s 24 March 2017 edition expounds four indications of a CPP crack.

General Kun Kim was once a Hun Sen’s dutiful minion; in any autocracy, none will move to the top without earning trust. He is prepared to shed Khmer blood for Hun Sen, and vows to arrest the two opposition leaders on order. He has done his duty so well Human Right Watch labels him as Hun Sen’s axe man.

Besides the resignation, Hun Sen demands the general sort out the “important personal issue” soon or facing imprisonment on criminal charges. Hence, what is this “issue” that enrages Hun Sen?

There could be two major possibilities: Hun Sen may suspect Kun Kim of being one of generals who are no longer interested in being a trigger-happy on his command; or, Kun Kim may be one of landowners who are indiscreetly disgruntled by Hun Sen’s new mega-airport project in Kandal that will damage their land interests.

First, with the latest round of promotions, the number of Cambodian generals is estimated to exceed 3,000, though an official number remains a top secret. It may be too embarrassing to disclose there are enough stars to lit up a whole town. However, Hun Sen has been worried that his wishes are no longer their commands. He reacts intensely to Sam Rainsy’s persistent appeals to the armed forces not to shoot dissenting citizens. Hun Sen needs as many trigger-happy generals as he can muster.

Fast promotions of his sons to top jobs over veteran and more experienced generals could do much to disquiet his top brass. It has become very awkward for some of them to look up to their junior officers for guidance and approvals on major decisions.

Second, Kun Kim is among those minions who own, or claim to own, some land in the area earmarked for the airport and airport-city project that covers 2,600 hectares. They must know project developer Overseas Cambodia Investment Corporation (OCIC) is a mere front for Hun Sen’s business interests. A source in the Hun Sen inner circle claims OCIC caps their land compensations even though market prices have skyrocketed by at least three-times since the project’s announcement in January. Essentially, Hun Sen reaps most benefits for himself and his family – by squeezing his minions; the greed may disgust Kun Kim. Nevertheless, it is ironic that many of these minions who are used to screwing over vulnerable villagers, become victims themselves.

Hun Sen must know the grumbling within the CPP, and hence the need to keep the lid on his generals. The source claims the only way Kun Kim could “sort out this issue” is to lay bare his cohort network. It seems the general is only the first of many to come, unless his cohorts strike Hun Sen in response now with a colour revolution he deserves.


Ung Bun Ang
15iii18



By the Way

There has been a frantic mobilisation of the 90% of diaspora in Australia that Hun Sen says are his supporters to welcome him in Sydney this weekend.

Ambassador Kuy Kuong drafts into the 90% all students from Cambodia by their names, literally ordering them to go see Hun Sen.

For others, especially those in Melbourne, there is an offer on the table from a promoter by the nickname of Yeay Chab for those who volunteer to go. For the insignificant ones, there is a minimum one-off payment of $300; for the significant ones, like those in business or high-profiles in the community, the lumpsum cash offer is up to $1,500 plus airfare and accommodation in Sydney. Excellent deal for a holiday.

By the way, when Hun Manet was in Australia, a similar cash incentive deal (smaller amount, of course) for a restaurant dinner party in his honour was offered. As it turned out, he must have been half-broke as he could afford only the food bills, not the cash incentives, which was a real disappointment for many.




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Pseng-Pseng is published irregularly. Previous issues are archived at pseng-pseng.blogspot.com


Friday, 2 March 2018


Hun Sen Says He is a Dummy



“We didn’t plan to burn Hun Sen’s effigy, but he is the one who reminded us yesterday.”


Melbourne resident Va Malina, 23 February 2018, The Phnom Penh Post


សុំផ្ដាំទៅអាអ្នកត្រៀមធើបាតុកម្ម មុខរបស់លោកឯងត្រូវចាំ [ចង្អុលម្រាមដៃ] ជាកិតិ្ដយសនៃរដ្ឋាភិបាលរបស់លោកឯង ប៉ុន្ដែអ្នកឯងហ្នឹង ជាសេរីភាពរបស់អ្នកឯង តែអ្នកឯងកុំភ្លេចថា ខ្ញុំក៍មានប្រជាជននៅខាងក្រៅប្រទេសគាំទ្រ ហើយជួបរាប់រយនាក់ច្រើនជាង។ ជានិច្ចជាកាល ខ្ញុំទៅណាក៍ដោយ អ្នកធើបាតុកម្មមានប្រមាណជា១០ភាគរយនៃអ្នកដែលមានជួបខ្ញុំតែប៉ុណ្ណោះ ... ស្រែកទៅ ធើទៅ ស្រែកទៅ​ ស្រែកទៅ ប៉ុន្ដែសុំផ្ដាំ កុំដុតរូបអោយសោះ។ ដុតរូប អញតាមដល់ផ្ទះ ប្រាប់អោយហើយ។ ជំនាន់ធ្វើបាតុកម្ម២០១៣ អត់ហ៊ានដែរ សម្ដេចក្រឡាហោមប្រាប់ទៅទូតអាមេរិកាំងថា ឯកឧត្ដម ប្រាប់ពួកអ្នកធើបាតុកម្ម ស្រុកខ្មែរអប្បីយជំនឿ ស្រុកខ្មែរអប្បីយជំនឿ បើហ៊ានតែធើរូប ហើយដុតរូប ច្បាស់ជាមានរឿងហើយ។ ខ្ញុំប្ដូរផ្ដាច់ពេលហ្នឹង បើហ៊ានតែធើរូប​អាស្អី ទីញមោងរូបខ្ញុំយកទៅដុត អញតាមវ៉ៃដល់ផ្ទះអ្ហែង ប្រាប់អោយហើយ។ ហ៊ីស អានេះ និយាយអោយច្បាស់ សិទ្ធិរបស់ឯងមាន បើសិទ្ធិអ្នកឯងមានសិទ្ធិដុតគេ គេមានសិទ្ធិវ៉ៃអ្នកឯង មានទាស់ខុសអី? អាហ្នឹងសិទ្ធិទៅ​ សិទ្ធិមក។ អ្នកឯងដល់ហឹង្សាលើរូបកាយគេ ហើយអ្នកឯងចាត់ទុកថា អាហ្នឹងរូបហ៊ុនសែនយកទៅដុត តាមដល់ផ្ទះ អត់ទេ ក្របួចយកតែម្ដង។

នាយក​រដ្ឋមន្ត្រី​ហ៊ុនសែន    ថ្ងៃទី២១ កុម្ភ: ២០១៨   វិទ្យុអាស៊ីសេរី


«​ខ្ញុំ​សូម​ផ្ដាំ​ទៅ​ស្គាល់​ពី​អាស៊ាន​ឲ្យ​ច្បាស់​បន្តិច​។ អាស៊ាន​ បើ​អត់​ ហ៊ុន សែន អត់​មាន​ន័យ​ថា​អាស៊ាន​ទេ​។ ហ៊ុន សែន អាច​ជំទាស់​មិន​ឲ្យ​ចេញ​សេចក្ដី​ថ្លែងការណ៍​ណា​មួយ​រួច ​រវាង​អាស៊ាន និង​អូស្ត្រាលី​។ សាកល្បង​លមើល​ទៅ​ មិនមែន​ត្រឹម​តែ​អូស្ត្រាលី​ អាច​គាប​សង្កត់​កម្ពុជា​ទេ ហ៊ាន​មើល​ កម្ពុជា​សូម​ដាក់​បញ្ហា​ទុក​ជា​មុន បើ​សិន​ជា​អ្នកឯង​ហ៊ាន​ផ្ដេសផ្ដាស​។ កម្ពុជា​តែ​ម្នាក់​អាច​នឹង​ធ្វើឲ្យ​គាំង​ទាំងអស់​នៃ​ការ​ចេញ​សេចក្ដី​ថ្លែងការណ៍​ព្រោះ​របៀបរបប​ការងារ​របស់​អាស៊ាន វា​ត្រូវ​តែ​មាន​កុង​សង់ស៊ីស រឿង​អី​ដែល​ [​យើង​] ​ត្រូវ​ហោះ​ពី​កម្ពុជា​ទៅ​ឲ្យ​គេ​ស្ដី​ឲ្យ​នៅ​ប្រទេស​អូស្ត្រាលី​។​»

នាយក​រដ្ឋមន្ត្រី​ហ៊ុនសែន  ថ្ងៃទី២២ កុម្ភ: ២០១៨  ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍​ 



“Cambodians have always thought their country is more important than it is.”

Professor David P. Chandler, 16 May 2016, Voice of America Khmer



Now, why does Hun Sen raise his dummy burning in Australia on the eve of his visit to that country, especially when no-one is thinking of it?  Whatever the reasons, he must want to test his absolute authority beyond the border of Cambodia. The authority he wields to terrorise his critics at home moves into another jurisdiction.

In a crude language that makes gangsters proud of him, Hun Sen has succeeded in inciting Cambodian overseas to torch his dummies despite his threats to have torchers beaten up. Diasporas in Australia and Canada have taken up the Hun Sen dare, and burnt his dummies.

How Hun Sen responds may largely depend on what the burning does to his body and ego.

He says the burning is an act of violence on his body. He equates himself to the dummy, to which he refers in Khmer as “Ting-Moung”. He should know by now what the burning has done to his body. Unless it has turned into ashes like the torched “Ting-Moung”, he ought to re-assess his primitive supernatural belief.

Hun Sen worships a Neak Ta he keeps at his city residence in a shrine well-decorated and maintained 24/7. All glass windows of the residence and all mirrors within are scribbled with shell lime powder to keep evil spirits away.

He may indeed have a phantom pain in his egoistic head though – any absolute authoritarians would. If so, he may want to consult his fortune-teller or psychologist to manage his anxiety; there is little he can do now to stop the burning of his Ting-Moung.

Still, there are obstacles for him to alleviate the anxiety. First, despite persistent claim of upholding rule of law, Hun Sen does not practice it. Rather than trying to prosecute Ting-Moung burners in court, Hun Sen takes the law into his own hands. He must know he has no control over independent courts.

Second, authoritarian Hun Sen is not satisfied with the 90% support he says he has among the overseas diaspora. Any politicians would kill for the popularity level. Yet, he allows the 10% to drive him around the bend – perhaps straight into his early grave with his current high blood pressure and diabetes.

Third, if David Chandler is correct, Hun Sen is suffering from a severe case of an exaggerated sense of his own importance. While on paper he can stuff up any Asean consensus, the plain truth is that often consensus statements are merely a public relations icing-on-the-cake exercise. There are bilateral dealings between Australia and each of the Asean nations to well serve their respective interests.

Fourth, there seems to be a slight psychopathic trait in Hun Sen’s character. While delivering threats to beat up Australian citizens in Australia, Hun Sen claims his visit bestows honour to the country. Australians would have rocks in their head, if they agreed with him.

Then again, Hun Sen may choose to stay home to nurture the phantom pain inflicted by the current bout of the Ting-Moung burning.


Ung Bun Ang
2iii18



By the Way


Pseng-Pseng has learned Cambodian ambassador Koy Kuong in Canberra has shifted into overdrive to protect Hun Sen from all evil spirits, and to ensure that he will not suffer any voodoo effect or turn into dust like his Ting-Moung they are burning and are going to burn.

Pseng-Pseng understands Koy Kuong has difficulties in securing a service of monks in Sydney to perform blessing chanting and rituals. He may have to import monks from Cambodia. In case he could not secure any locals to do the beating and go to jail for Hun Sen, he may as well arm these imported monks with baton, if not gun.




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Pseng-Pseng is published irregularly. Previous issues are archived at pseng-pseng.blogspot.com

Friday, 2 February 2018



A New Year Gift Hun Sen Does Not Deserve



“We must acknowledge that CNRP supporters and activists in Cambodia are facing difficulties. They find it hard [to carry out their activities]. They are really concerned. They get lost and get confused about the future of the party.”

CNRM co-founder Sam Rainsy, 16 January 2018, Radio Free Asia



ចលនាសង្គ្រោះជាតិ សម្រួលច្រើនណាស់ ខុសគ្នាឆ្ងាយណាស់ពីគណបក្សនយោបាយ ព្រោះចលនា ជាក្របខ័ណ្ឌថ្មីមួយ ក្នុងនោះ អាចធ្វើការបាន ដោយគ្មាននរណាអាចប៉ះពាល់ឬ រំលាយចលនាបាន សូម្បីតែលើក្រដាសក៏មិនអាចរំលាយបានដែរ មិនចាំបាច់ទៅចុះឈ្មោះ ទៅសុំច្បាប់ក្រសួងមហាផ្ទៃ ។

អតីតប្រធានគណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិ សម រង្ស៊ី ខែ​ ធ្នូ ២០១៧   ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍​ 


បើគ្រាន់តែខ្ញុំចូលទៅ ចាំតែបាញ់សម្លាប់ខ្ញុំ ចាំតែចាប់ខ្ញុំ ដាក់គុក តើបាន ប្រយោជន៍អ្វី? ខ្ញុំ អត់ចង់ធ្វើ វីរបុរសស្លាប់ វាអត់ប្រយោជន៍ ដូចលោក កែម ឡី គេបាញ់សម្លាប់ទៅ យើងស្រឡាញ់គាត់ យើងគោរពវិញ្ញាណក្ខ័ន្ធគាត់ ប៉ុន្តែ វាអត់ប្រយោជន៍។ ខ្ញុំជឿថា ស្លាប់ឥឡូវនេះ វាអត់ប្រយោជន៍ ជាប់គុកវាអត់ប្រយោជន៍។ ប៉ុន្តែបើយើងទុកសមត្ថភាពរបស់យើង ធ្វើការជាក់ស្តែង ជាវិជ្ជមាន ដើម្បីបម្រើប្រទេសជាតិ វាមានប្រយោជន៍ជាង។ ដូច្នេះ ខ្ញុំរង់​ចាំឲ្យមានការបើកផ្លូវ។

អតីតប្រធានគណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិ សម រង្សី វិទ្យុបារាំងអន្តរជាតិ ថ្ងៃទី២ ខែកក្កដា ឆ្នាំ២០១៧



“He [Kem Sokha] cannot express his support for, and even less join, the Cambodia National Rescue Movement ... It would be very dangerous for him to do so given the fact that he is in [Prime Minister] Hun Sen’s hands while the CNRM’s declared objective is to bring an end to Hun Sen’s authoritarian rule.”

CNRM co-founder Sam Rainsy, 21 January 2018, The Phnom Penh Post




There are a few worrisome indications that a new opposition offshoot called CNRM is ill-conceived and ineffective, if not killed off first by Hun Sen’s generals. It is effectively to replace the CNRP its former president claims to be defunct with confused and disoriented followers. It appears that he and Hun Sen can only build up an organisation that lasts only when they are in charge. Hun Sen says without him at the helm, Cambodia will have civil wars.

Anyhow, the decision-making process to establish the Movement is exclusive. The Movement is announced on 14 January, yet co-founder Eng Chhai Eang says a committee meeting about it takes place only five days later – perhaps after a backlash from other prominent CNRP members including the jailed president. It is rather baffling that while the co-founder dismisses the president’s objection as a decision not based on sufficient information due to his imprisonment, the Movement is founded without canvassing opinions of all CNRP quarters, especially the president.

Given the Movement’s five-point mission plan, the CNRP could perhaps execute it more successfully – without the internal conflicts the Movement has whipped up. After all, prominent activists would remain the same and followers would not be confused and divided, which would help recruit fresh ones.

The founders say the Movement has no organisational structure. If this means it has neither chiefs nor Indians, all activists – incognito or otherwise – will become solo performers without on-the-ground leadership or coordination. It will be like letting headless chooks running around, giving Hun Sen’s trigger-happy generals and courts a field day.

The unstructured Movement offers no security to its activists, particularly those in Cambodia, despite its claim that they will enjoy a full right and freedom. Of course, it will be unregistered in Cambodia; but a non-registration or registration elsewhere does not mean its activists will be free from Hun Sen’s persecution. His generals have already come out in droves to denounce the Movement as a terrorist group. Yet, Sam Rainsy is certain that “no-one will dare to take actions against us”. Thus, activists inside Cambodia responding to his calls must hope he is dead right.

The Movement says it is committed to non-violence in their activism to follow footsteps and struggles of Gandhi, Luther-King, and Mandela. Somehow, it ignores the fact that Gandhi is jailed 13 times, Luther-King 29 times before both are assassinated; and Mandela is jailed for 27 years. Meanwhile, the Movement co-founders duck their jail terms and jail prospects, opting instead for a remote control from their exile comfort. They are very critical of those who sacrifice their life, like Kem Ley, in their struggle for justice and freedom; they denigrate Kem Sokha’s objection to the Movement as a mere selfish act to avoid pressures in jail.

Overall, Hun Sen must thank his lucky star for the surprise New Year gift that inevitably incapacitates his formidable opposition. He may reward losers with royal pardons so that they can help legitimise the July elections that he will win.


Ung Bun Ang
2ii18


By The Way,


How would a psychopath respond to the following fervid plea? By clinical definition, a psychopath is someone who enjoys a thrill of witnessing or inflicting pains on their weak prey and victim.

As expected, CPP stalwart Chheang Vun wastes no time in stepping up his attacks on former commune chief Sin Chanpeou Rozet. He links her small food stall business to CNRM – a spin-off of Rozet’s disbanded CNRP.

Any kind of plea to any psychopath will fail as they see it as a weakness. The psychopaths understand only the power of strength. Will they see any strength in the new Movement that splits the CNRP right in the middle?


« ការ comment របស់លោកអ៊ុំ (ឈាង វុន) នេះ ពិតជាមានបំណងចង់បិទហាងខ្ញុំ ឬមួយធ្វើមិនឲ្យមានភ្ញៀវ ហ៊ានចូលហាង ឬមិនចង់ឲ្យខ្ញុំរស់នៅចិញ្ចឹម អ្នកម្តាយជរាម្នាក់បានទេ ។ តើលោកអ៊ុំ អាចអនុគ្រោះ ឲ្យក្មេងស្រីម្នាក់នេះ រស់នៅជាមួយអ្នកម្តាយចាស់ជរាម្នាក់ផងបានទេ? ឬត្រូវឲ្យនាងខ្ញុំរត់ទៅណាទៀត ? លោកអ៊ុំអើយ! ក្មេងស្រីម្នាក់នេះមាន បន្ទុកធ្ងន់ណាស់! បើខ្ញុំចេញទៅណាចោលអ្នកម្តាយ គឺស្មើនឹងខ្ញុំសម្លាប់អ្នកម្តាយខ្ញុំ ដោយដៃនាងខ្ញុំ ។»

អតីតចៅសង្កាត់អូរចារពីគណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិ កញ្ញាស៊ិន ចាន់ពៅរ៉ូហ្សេត  ២៩ ខែ​មករា ឆ្នាំ​២០១៨ ភ្នំពេញ ប៉ុស្ដិ៍



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Sunday, 31 December 2017


Hun Sen’s Risky Challenges



កុំធើជាសត្វឆ្កែ គ្រាន់តែដើម្បីជាមួយនិងឆ្អឹងសាច់មួយដុំ វាមិនថ្លៃថ្នូរទេ។ ឧទាហរណ៍ បើមិនធើតាមអញ អញនឹងកាត់ផ្ដាច់នេះ កាត់ផ្ដាច់នោះ កាត់ទៅ។ លោកឯងជ្រើសរើសមនុស្សប៉ុន្មាននាក់ រឺជ្រើសរើសប្រជាជន១៥លាននាក់? លោកឯងជ្រើសរើសទំនាក់ទំនង ជាមួយបុគ្គលមួយក្រុម រឺ ក៏ហ្អែងជ្រើសរើសទំនាក់ទំនងរវាងប្រទេសនិងប្រទេស?

នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុនសែន ថ្ងៃទី ១៧ ធ្នូ​  ២០១៧វិទ្យុអាស៊ីសេរី


«ប្រជាពលរដ្ឋអត់ខ្វល់ទេ ខ្វល់បំផុតរបស់គាត់ គឺអញមានបាយឲ្យកូនស៊ីឬអត់? តើអញមាន សម្លៀកបំពាក់ឲ្យកូនចៅគ្រប់គ្រាន់ឬអត់? អញមានមុងភួយគ្រប់គ្រាន់ឬអត់?»

នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុនសែន ថ្ងៃទី ២១ ធ្នូ​  ២០១៧   ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍​ 


«ពូចង់ឃើញប្រទេសនេះ អត្រានៃភាពក្រីក្រនៅទាបបំផុត ហើយប្រាក់ចំណូលពលរដ្ឋរបស់យើង មិនមែនគ្រាន់តែ១៥០០ដុល្លារសម្រាប់មនុស្សម្នាក់ដូចថ្ងៃនេះទេ ក៏ប៉ុន្តែពូចង់ឃើញថា នៅពេលដែលពូចាកចេញពីតំណែង ប្រាក់សម្រាប់ពលរដ្ឋម្នាក់ៗមិនតិចជាង៣០០០ដុល្លារសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិក។»

 

នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុនសែន ថ្ងៃទី ២១ ធ្នូ​  ២០១៧   ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍​ 



Hun Sen sets up two interesting challenges for himself: goading the West into imposing sanctions on garment imports, and doubling the Cambodian average income before he retires.

Facing the potential trade sanctions, Hun Sen sounds proud when he tells Cambodian people not to be a dog that is satified with a meaty bone – there is no dignity in it, he says. He means the dog deserves much more, just like he and his minions who have been dogging truckloads of cash. Ironically, he also claims all the people need are sufficient food, clothes, mosquito nets, and blankets – just bare necessities, nothing more than the meaty bone.

However, an interesting question remains: can Hun Sen really manange any fallouts from the sanctions? He can, judging by the way he goads the West into implementing them. His dare makes some minions apprehensive; the Commerce Minister sombrely urges him to sweet-talk EU member states to avoid the bans. But his trump card is China, despite his rhetoric that foreigners keep out of his domestic affairs.

China may choose to pay for the Cambodian garment exports under sanctions. If the West merely removes the tariff-free status, a total cost will be about USD686 a year, which is peanuts relative to the Chinese GDP of USD11.2 trillion. If the exports are banned altogether, China can even buy the whole USD6.2 billion garment production, and dump it as land reclamation in Xisha island of the South China Sea.

Then, what can Hun Sen offer in return for the Chinese easy cash? There is no free lunch. The risk is that Cambodia may run out of what China wants. It has already controlled a vast territory in Cambodia’s north-eastern region for exploitations of local natural resources, and a large chunk of national economic activities. Then again, a shrewd Hun Sen may come up with something enticing.

A China deal will make Hun Sen’s second challenge less taxing. It may be just a matter of time for him to double the people’s average income before retiring. If he plans to retire in 10 years, the annual average rate of income increase would be about 7.2%, which is possible. If he hangs around for 25 years, the double income becomes inevitable with a relaxing rate of 2.8%.

However, if the santions are on and there is no China deal, consequences may be ugly. The people’s income will drop, impacting millions. Many will struggle to have even the bare-bones necessities Hun Sen recommends. Given an unprecendent and extensive pork-barrelling Hun Sen has recently been promising garment workers, he must know they could give him an authentic colour revolution – not a fabricated one he has used to persecute political opponents.

Still, as Hun Sen has proved he is prepared to get the country to pay any price for his victory, the likelihood is that he will somehow secure the China deal. Hence, it is not what Hun Sen can do for the country, but what Cambodian losers can do for him.


Ung Bun Ang
31xii17



By The Way

There seems to be a collaboration between Hun Sen and China to evade EU tariffs on Chinese exports of food additive citric acid to Europe. EU claims to have sufficient evidence to launch a rigorous investigation to determine if the Chinese exports goes to EU via Cambodia.

Hun Sen may do the same thing in the Cambodia’s garment exports to Europe. While Commerce Minister Pan Sorasak recognises only about 400,000 garment workers, employer association GMAC claims the total workforce is about 700,000. If both statements are correct, then the difference relfects the number of garment workers in China. Furthermore, a source in the Hun Sen inner-circle admits to a collaborative transshipment between China and Cambodia to export Chinese garment products to the EU.

This collaborative theft of the EU tariff and duties may just throw a spanner into the works. It may escalate the Hun Sen’s challenges from a low-risk to a high-risk one, unless China still sees the overall merits of taking on the EU sanction threats against the Cambodia garment exports.


“[EU investigation] takes place each time there is a suspicion that goods are transhipped from a country under anti-dumping measures (in this case China) through a third country (in this case Cambodia) in order to avoid the payment of the relevant duties… If the investigation finds that such transhipment [sic] is taking place, anti-dumping measures [in the form of] duties would be extended to cover these exports from Cambodia.”

EU ambassador to Cambodia George Edgar, 26 December 2017, The Phnom Penh Post




Pseng-Pseng is published irregularly. Previous issues are archived at pseng-pseng.blogspot.com

Friday, 22 December 2017


2017 Annual Awards


 There is so much excitement in 2017 that award winners for this year should not be a surprise to anyone unless they have just woken up from a coma.


Law-Abiding Autocrat Award – Hun Sen

Persistent assertions by Hun Sen and his minions give an impression that Cambodia has the best rule of law on earth. Every move to persecute opponents is so legalistic that they may think spirit of the law is a liquor’s brand name. Hun Sen instigates specific laws to prosecute certain opponents; he redefines legal terms, like “in flagrante delicto” to mean an exact moment he wants someone arrested. Treason, incitement, terrorism, subversion, revolution, etc… becomes their words in vogue. To them, being “legal” is being “just”.


Panic-Driven Action Award - Hun Sen

This year is perhaps the most taxing year for Hun Sen, who has burnt his candle on both ends and the middle, highlighting an intense anxiety and fear of losing power.

Outcomes of a comprehensive public opinion research conducted for Hun Sen in 2016 by Shaviv Strategy & Campaigns indicate he would inevitably lose the 2018 elections. Voting intention for CNRP improves from 36% in May to 44% in September 2016 while CPP’s drops from 46% to 35%. Sixty-four percent believe legal processes against Kem Sokha and Sam Rainsy are unfair. For their credibility, Shaviv claims, “Dr Thaksin will passionately endorse the quality and efficiency of my work…”

Hun Sen considers two main strategic responses to the expected loss: renege on power handover after the elections, or removal of CNRP from the election process. With a solid inroad the opposition makes in the 2017 commune elections, Hun Sen becomes hysterical; he opts for the second option. CNRP is now disbanded.

Yet, the premier trusts none outside his inner-circle. Despite his close generals’ repetitive assurance that their troops are always behind him, Hun Sen still questions their loyalty. He establishes a new military brigade of up to 10,000 troops that Defence spokesman Oum Socheat assures “will listen to the government’s orders”. He creates a new spy school to be controlled by his son Manith, who already heads the military’s intelligence department.


Thick Skin Award – Norodom Ranariddh, PhD

No award is more suitable for this holder of PhD in law who applauds Hun Sen for allocating to his party 44 parliamentary seats for, he says, “doing absolutely nothing”. His well-trained legal mind succumbs to the rule that Hun Sen laws always override justice and morality. It does not matter how these seats become vacant so long as he gets some. Ranariddh must be very thick-skinned to sit in parliament without getting elected. What other elected representatives may think of him and his unelectable cohorts is irrelevant. Then again, the other elected members who are so servile to Hun Sen’s rule may not be sensitive enough to feel any different in their parliamentary façade. Birds of a feather flock together.


Well, 2017 has almost gone; and some piles of cash are stashed away in foreign lands with a prayer that they will not be frozen for whatever reasons in the New Year. Keep praying.


Ung Bun Ang
22xii17



By The Way


« បើអ៊ីចឹង ដើម្បីបានជំនួយទាល់តែឱនក្បាល ថា បាទៗ អ៊ីចឹងហើយ ហើយជាតិមួយ ធ្វើអ៊ីចឹង តើយើងទៅរួចទេ? សុំទោស ខ្ញុំមិនអាចតំណាងជាតិសាសន៍មួយនេះ ធ្វើអ៊ីចឹងបានទេ ។ មិនថាបរទេសហ្នឹងជាប្រទេសណាទេ ខ្ញុំធ្វើមិនរួចដោយសារ តែ ខ្ញុំស្អប់ខ្ពើមនូវការឈ្លានពានរបស់បរទេស ដោយសារឪពុកម្តាយ ជីដូនជីតា ស្អប់ ខ្ពើមនូវការឈ្លានពានរបស់បរទេសបំពានលើឯករាជ្យអធិបតេយ្យភាពរបស់ កម្ពុជានោះហើយ បានជា ប្រទេសយើងត្រូវតស៊ូងើបឈរឡើង ដើម្បីឯករាជ្យ អធិបតេយ្យភាពរបស់ជាតិ ។»


នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រីហ៊ុន សែន ថ្ងៃទី ១៨ ធ្នូ​  ២០១៧ The Phnom Penh Post (Khmer Edition)

What a music to one’s ears. Hun Sen does know how to hit the right notes. But who is he trying to kid, besides himself and the gullible? Others are incredulous.

For a person who seeks help from Vietnam to remain in power for decades and builds Vietnam-Cambodia Friendship monuments throughout Cambodia as a reminder of his eternal gratitude to the foreigner, he must be either lying, or have a death wish, or have a permission from Vietnam to sing the tune that the latter may be offended.

He says he is against foreign interference into Cambodia’s domestic affairs, yet he asks visiting Vietnam deputy minister for Defence Nguyen Chi Vinh for advice on how to fight a colour revolution, which is a domestic issue that has consumed him. He has indeed bowed to China for easy cash.


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Pseng-Pseng is published irregularly. Previous issues are archived at pseng-pseng.blogspot.com