How Hun Sen Vaccination Programme Leaves Millions Exposed
“We really don’t know what the real number [of the population] is [for a herd immunity]. I think the real range is somewhere between 70 to 90 percent. But, I’m not going to say 90 percent.”
White House Chief Medical Advisor to Trump and Biden Administration, 24 December 2020, The New York Times
Hun Sen does not say why he concludes only two thirds of Cambodians needs vaccination against Covid-19. He is to acquire a mere 20 million doses of vaccines, which is enough for 10 million out of the 16.7 million people (60%).
Assuming all vaccines coming to Hun Sen have a high efficacy and/or effectiveness of 79%, which is as much as what Sinopharm claims for their vaccine, the total “protected” population is a mere 47%. Hence, more than half of the population remains exposed.
The protected population is likely far less though, as the above assumption is unrealistic. The average efficacy/effectiveness of vaccine mix for Cambodians is far less than the 79%. Hun Sen, who boasts he has billions worth of gold bars and cash in reserves, says he cannot afford any vaccine that costs more than $4 a shot. That is, only AstraZeneca vaccine whose efficacy/effectiveness is as low as 62% fits the bill. He rules out a Pfizer option, which is 95% efficacious/effective, due to its high cost of $20 per dose and technical complexities for the vaccine storage, transportation, and distribution that requires an extremely low temperature of -70C. Thus, the protected population will fall below 47%.
This 47% or less protection is far cry from a level necessary to achieve a herd immunity that could make all Cambodians safe. Herd immunity occurs when a significant part of a population becomes immune to an infectious disease, limiting further disease spread for the benefit of all. Dr Fauci reckons over 70% of the population would need to be effectively protected, or vaccinated, for the herd immunity to take hold. Hun Sen’s vaccination programme will thus fail the Fauci test.
There are further complications with the Hun Sen vaccination programme. First, the rollout is sluggish. There are only 7,091 persons receiving their first jab in the first six days. At this rate, it will take almost 17 months to administer all the first batch of 600,000 doses of Sinopharm vaccines Hun Sen has received from China. Whether by design or sheer incompetence, he seems unhurried to secure the protection, while other governments are rushing to make their citizens resistant to Covid-19.
Second, the vaccination programme can only become less effective with an arrival in Cambodia of the UK Covid variant. Early reports suggest only Pfizer vaccine, which Hun Sen rules out, is useful against the variant, albeit with less degree.
Though the vaccination programme may be ineffective, Hun Sen still gets his priority right, in terms of whom his programme is protecting. While other rollouts give importance to frontline health workers and elderly, Hun Sen’s target groups to get the first jabs include his families, top minions, and a few journalists who are not in jail. Half of the first batch of the Chinese vaccines goes to armed forces that Hun Sen is grateful for keeping him in power.
Thus, while the select groups will enjoy some level of immunity from Covid-19, at least eight million Cambodians will not.
Ung Bun Ang
21ii21
Fake News You Can Trust
So, Hun Sen refuses to comment on internal affairs of Myanmar after a successful military coup on 1 Feb 2021 that sweeps winners of their general election on 8 November 2020 out of power. Senior leaders of victorious National League for Democracy are arrested.
The refusal would be a noble political posturing if it were not so hypocritical and inconsistent.
He has meddled in Myanmar internal affairs after the election, at least in the eyes of Myanmar military chief Min Aung Hlaing. The chief says it is unlikely the military, which has had a full control over the country for decades, will accept the election outcomes claiming widespread election frauds.
Nevertheless, Hun Sen’s embassy in Yangon certifies the election to be “free and fair” and reiterates his support for Myanmar’s democratic process. Hun Sen follows up a few days later with a congratulatory letter to State counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi for her party’s overwhelming election victory. General Min Aung Hlaing would want Hun Sen to explain if that is not an interference into Myanmar affairs, what is.
Then again, the man just wants to be nice to whoever wins, never mind hypocrisy.
“For the time being, in Yangon [and Myanmar] it is happening. The President and the State Counsellor are arrested and detained… But Cambodia shall not make any comments on the internal affairs of any countries regardless if they are within the framework of ASEAN as member states or outside.”
Prime Minister Hun Sen, 2 February 2021, VOA Khmer
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