Hun Sen’s Risky Challenges

“កុំធើជាសត្វឆ្កែ គ្រាន់តែដើម្បីជាមួយនិងឆ្អឹងសាច់មួយដុំ វាមិនថ្លៃថ្នូរទេ។ ឧទាហរណ៍ បើមិនធើតាមអញ អញនឹងកាត់ផ្ដាច់នេះ កាត់ផ្ដាច់នោះ កាត់ទៅ។ លោកឯងជ្រើសរើសមនុស្សប៉ុន្មាននាក់ រឺជ្រើសរើសប្រជាជន១៥លាននាក់? លោកឯងជ្រើសរើសទំនាក់ទំនង ជាមួយបុគ្គលមួយក្រុម រឺ ក៏ហ្អែងជ្រើសរើសទំនាក់ទំនងរវាងប្រទេសនិងប្រទេស? ”

នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុនសែន ថ្ងៃទី ១៧ ធ្នូ​  ២០១៧ ​ វិទ្យុអាស៊ីសេរី

«ប្រជាពលរដ្ឋអត់ខ្វល់ទេ ខ្វល់បំផុតរបស់គាត់ គឺអញមានបាយឲ្យកូនស៊ីឬអត់? តើអញមាន សម្លៀកបំពាក់ឲ្យកូនចៅគ្រប់គ្រាន់ឬអត់? អញមានមុងភួយគ្រប់គ្រាន់ឬអត់?»

នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុនសែន ថ្ងៃទី ២១ ធ្នូ​  ២០១៧   ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍​ 

«ពូចង់ឃើញប្រទេសនេះ អត្រានៃភាពក្រីក្រនៅទាបបំផុត ហើយប្រាក់ចំណូលពលរដ្ឋរបស់យើង មិនមែនគ្រាន់តែ១៥០០ដុល្លារសម្រាប់មនុស្សម្នាក់ដូចថ្ងៃនេះទេ ក៏ប៉ុន្តែពូចង់ឃើញថា នៅពេលដែលពូចាកចេញពីតំណែង ប្រាក់សម្រាប់ពលរដ្ឋម្នាក់ៗមិនតិចជាង៣០០០ដុល្លារសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិក។»

 

នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុនសែន ថ្ងៃទី ២១ ធ្នូ​  ២០១៧   ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍​ 

Hun Sen sets up two interesting challenges for himself: goading the West into imposing sanctions on garment imports, and doubling the Cambodian average income before he retires.

Facing the potential trade sanctions, Hun Sen sounds proud when he tells Cambodian people not to be a dog that is satified with a meaty bone – there is no dignity in it, he says. He means the dog deserves much more, just like he and his minions who have been dogging truckloads of cash. Ironically, he also claims all the people need are sufficient food, clothes, mosquito nets, and blankets – just bare necessities, nothing more than the meaty bone.

However, an interesting question remains: can Hun Sen really manange any fallouts from the sanctions? He can, judging by the way he goads the West into implementing them. His dare makes some minions apprehensive; the Commerce Minister sombrely urges him to sweet-talk EU member states to avoid the bans. But his trump card is China, despite his rhetoric that foreigners keep out of his domestic affairs.

China may choose to pay for the Cambodian garment exports under sanctions. If the West merely removes the tariff-free status, a total cost will be about USD686 a year, which is peanuts relative to the Chinese GDP of USD11.2 trillion. If the exports are banned altogether, China can even buy the whole USD6.2 billion garment production, and dump it as land reclamation in Xisha island of the South China Sea.

Then, what can Hun Sen offer in return for the Chinese easy cash? There is no free lunch. The risk is that Cambodia may run out of what China wants. It has already controlled a vast territory in Cambodia’s north-eastern region for exploitations of local natural resources, and a large chunk of national economic activities. Then again, a shrewd Hun Sen may come up with something enticing.

A China deal will make Hun Sen’s second challenge less taxing. It may be just a matter of time for him to double the people’s average income before retiring. If he plans to retire in 10 years, the annual average rate of income increase would be about 7.2%, which is possible. If he hangs around for 25 years, the double income becomes inevitable with a relaxing rate of 2.8%.

However, if the santions are on and there is no China deal, consequences may be ugly. The people’s income will drop, impacting millions. Many will struggle to have even the bare-bones necessities Hun Sen recommends. Given an unprecendent and extensive pork-barrelling Hun Sen has recently been promising garment workers, he must know they could give him an authentic colour revolution – not a fabricated one he has used to persecute political opponents.

Still, as Hun Sen has proved he is prepared to get the country to pay any price for his victory, the likelihood is that he will somehow secure the China deal. Hence, it is not what Hun Sen can do for the country, but what Cambodian losers can do for him.

Ung Bun Ang

31xii17

By The Way

There seems to be a collaboration between Hun Sen and China to evade EU tariffs on Chinese exports of food additive citric acid to Europe. EU claims to have sufficient evidence to launch a rigorous investigation to determine if the Chinese exports goes to EU via Cambodia.

Hun Sen may do the same thing in the Cambodia’s garment exports to Europe. While Commerce Minister Pan Sorasak recognises only about 400,000 garment workers, employer association GMAC claims the total workforce is about 700,000. If both statements are correct, then the difference relfects the number of garment workers in China. Furthermore, a source in the Hun Sen inner-circle admits to a collaborative transshipment between China and Cambodia to export Chinese garment products to the EU.

This collaborative theft of the EU tariff and duties may just throw a spanner into the works. It may escalate the Hun Sen’s challenges from a low-risk to a high-risk one, unless China still sees the overall merits of taking on the EU sanction threats against the Cambodia garment exports.

“[EU investigation] takes place each time there is a suspicion that goods are transhipped from a country under anti-dumping measures (in this case China) through a third country (in this case Cambodia) in order to avoid the payment of the relevant duties… If the investigation finds that such transhipment [sic] is taking place, anti-dumping measures [in the form of] duties would be extended to cover these exports from Cambodia.”

EU ambassador to Cambodia George Edgar, 26 December 2017, The Phnom Penh Post

Pseng-Pseng is published irregularly. Previous issues are archived at pseng-pseng.blogspot.com

2017 Annual Awards

 There is so much excitement in 2017 that award winners for this year should not be a surprise to anyone unless they have just woken up from a coma.

Law-Abiding Autocrat Award – Hun Sen

Persistent assertions by Hun Sen and his minions give an impression that Cambodia has the best rule of law on earth. Every move to persecute opponents is so legalistic that they may think spirit of the law is a liquor’s brand name. Hun Sen instigates specific laws to prosecute certain opponents; he redefines legal terms, like “in flagrante delicto” to mean an exact moment he wants someone arrested. Treason, incitement, terrorism, subversion, revolution, etc… becomes their words in vogue. To them, being “legal” is being “just”.

Panic-Driven Action Award - Hun Sen

This year is perhaps the most taxing year for Hun Sen, who has burnt his candle on both ends and the middle, highlighting an intense anxiety and fear of losing power.

Outcomes of a comprehensive public opinion research conducted for Hun Sen in 2016 by Shaviv Strategy & Campaigns indicate he would inevitably lose the 2018 elections. Voting intention for CNRP improves from 36% in May to 44% in September 2016 while CPP’s drops from 46% to 35%. Sixty-four percent believe legal processes against Kem Sokha and Sam Rainsy are unfair. For their credibility, Shaviv claims, “Dr Thaksin will passionately endorse the quality and efficiency of my work…”

Hun Sen considers two main strategic responses to the expected loss: renege on power handover after the elections, or removal of CNRP from the election process. With a solid inroad the opposition makes in the 2017 commune elections, Hun Sen becomes hysterical; he opts for the second option. CNRP is now disbanded.

Yet, the premier trusts none outside his inner-circle. Despite his close generals’ repetitive assurance that their troops are always behind him, Hun Sen still questions their loyalty. He establishes a new military brigade of up to 10,000 troops that Defence spokesman Oum Socheat assures “will listen to the government’s orders”. He creates a new spy school to be controlled by his son Manith, who already heads the military’s intelligence department.

Thick Skin Award – Norodom Ranariddh, PhD

No award is more suitable for this holder of PhD in law who applauds Hun Sen for allocating to his party 44 parliamentary seats for, he says, “doing absolutely nothing”. His well-trained legal mind succumbs to the rule that Hun Sen laws always override justice and morality. It does not matter how these seats become vacant so long as he gets some. Ranariddh must be very thick-skinned to sit in parliament without getting elected. What other elected representatives may think of him and his unelectable cohorts is irrelevant. Then again, the other elected members who are so servile to Hun Sen’s rule may not be sensitive enough to feel any different in their parliamentary façade. Birds of a feather flock together.

Well, 2017 has almost gone; and some piles of cash are stashed away in foreign lands with a prayer that they will not be frozen for whatever reasons in the New Year. Keep praying.

Ung Bun Ang

22xii17

By The Way

« បើអ៊ីចឹង ដើម្បីបានជំនួយទាល់តែឱនក្បាល ថា បាទៗ អ៊ីចឹងហើយ ហើយជាតិមួយ ធ្វើអ៊ីចឹង តើយើងទៅរួចទេ? សុំទោស ខ្ញុំមិនអាចតំណាងជាតិសាសន៍មួយនេះ ធ្វើអ៊ីចឹងបានទេ ។ មិនថាបរទេសហ្នឹងជាប្រទេសណាទេ ខ្ញុំធ្វើមិនរួចដោយសារ តែ ខ្ញុំស្អប់ខ្ពើមនូវការឈ្លានពានរបស់បរទេស ដោយសារឪពុកម្តាយ ជីដូនជីតា ស្អប់ ខ្ពើមនូវការឈ្លានពានរបស់បរទេសបំពានលើឯករាជ្យអធិបតេយ្យភាពរបស់ កម្ពុជានោះហើយ បានជា ប្រទេសយើងត្រូវតស៊ូងើបឈរឡើង ដើម្បីឯករាជ្យ អធិបតេយ្យភាពរបស់ជាតិ ។»

នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រីហ៊ុន សែន ថ្ងៃទី ១៨ ធ្នូ​  ២០១៧ The Phnom Penh Post (Khmer Edition)

What a music to one’s ears. Hun Sen does know how to hit the right notes. But who is he trying to kid, besides himself and the gullible? Others are incredulous.

For a person who seeks help from Vietnam to remain in power for decades and builds Vietnam-Cambodia Friendship monuments throughout Cambodia as a reminder of his eternal gratitude to the foreigner, he must be either lying, or have a death wish, or have a permission from Vietnam to sing the tune that the latter may be offended.

He says he is against foreign interference into Cambodia’s domestic affairs, yet he asks visiting Vietnam deputy minister for Defence Nguyen Chi Vinh for advice on how to fight a colour revolution, which is a domestic issue that has consumed him. He has indeed bowed to China for easy cash.

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Hun Sen’s Colour Revolution Illusion May Come True

“… the Secretary of State will restrict entry into the United States of those individuals involved in undermining democracy in Cambodia. In certain circumstances, family members of those individuals will also be subject to visa restrictions.”

US Department of State spokesperson Heather Nauert, Press Statement, 6 December 2017

“Banning visas will not make people in Cambodia die by having their children not [being allowed to] visit there. They can visit their parents [here] – there is no problem.”

CPP Spokesman Sok Eysan, 8 December 2017, The Phnom Penh Post

«យ៉ាង​ណា​វា​ប៉ះពាល់​សតិ​អារម្មណ៍​ដែរ សូម​សហរដ្ឋអាមេរិក​មេត្តា​ពិចារណា​ផង ព្រោះ​ថា​ប្រទេស​តូច​កុំ​ថា​ឡើយ​កម្ពុជា​ដល់​ទៅ​អាវុធ​នុយក្លេអ៊ែរ សូម្បី​អាវុធ​ប៉ុន​កូន​ដៃ​ក៏​គ្មាន​ដែរ។ សូម​ឲ្យ​លោក​ជា​មហាយក្ស​សូម​ឲ្យ​ជួយ​ពិនិត្យ​មើល និង​សូម​ឲ្យ​ប្រទេស​កម្ពុជា​ដែល​ជា​ប្រទេស​តូច​មួយ​ហ្នឹង​រស់​បាន​ដោយ​សុខ​សន្តិភាព​ផង។»

អ្នក​នាំ​ពាក្យ​គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជន​កម្ពុជា សុខ ឥសាន ថ្ងៃ​ទី​១០ ខែ​មីនា ឆ្នាំ​២០១៦ វិទ្យុ​អាស៊ីសេរី

Hun Sen finally tones down his rhetoric against the US when a limited US sanction hits the CPP’s raw nerves. He now agrees to again accept deported Cambodian ex-criminals from the US because of the visa restriction the US has imposed on Ministry of Foreign Affairs top officials. Rather than lifting it as a reward for the backdown, the US up the ante, extending the restriction to those who undermine Cambodian democracy, and their families.

The expanded sanction makes the CPP’s head spin. Initially, Sok Eysan sees no problems. He is right though that the visa restriction will not kill Cambodians. Most do not have enough to send their children for education or buy real estates in the US. Indeed, only children of those who can afford can visit their parents in Cambodia to circumvent the sanction.

On second thought forty-eight hours later, Eysan realises those children may not be allowed back to the US after the visit to their parents who are in the sanction list. He whines, and begs for a US reconsideration. He becomes delusional when he infers that the sanction is due to nuclear weaponry he claims the CPP do not have.

The US will not reveal the list. Hun Sen would certainly want to know who are, or are not, in it to confirm or disprove any doubt he may ever have on loyalty of any of his minions.

Meanwhile, this becomes a real predicament for his fawning dependants: to be or not to be in the list. Being in it proves to Hun Sen their loyalty and service effectiveness; but it also means they are putting at risks their wealth and their children overseas. If they are not in, however, they will arouse, or confirm, Hun Sen’s suspicion on their loyalty.

They may not have any choice though when the sanction drags on. Hun Sen will know whose visa applications are being rejected, and who have not travelled to the US as often as they used to.

To rein Hun Sen in, nevertheless, visa bans from other countries that are preferred destinations of his minions’ wealth may be necessary. Furthermore, an ultimate effectiveness is a freeze on their assets abroad. It is impossible for them to justify their ill-gotten wealth with their legitimate incomes under those foreign jurisdictions’ anti-money laundering and corruption laws.

Impacts of such targeted sanctions on the Hun Sen’s rule will be huge, leaving the general population largely untouched. The rule lasts so far mainly because of his support base consisting of intellectuals and armed officers who carry out his orders so diligently. The surgical sanctions inflict damages only on the support base’s private interests, which must be severe enough to embolden a political defiance within. This means they could inconspicuously execute orders that will damage the democracy with less effectiveness. They could also make Hun Sen’s illusion a reality – a colour revolution.

Many of Hun Sen’s wishes have come through with flying colours, and a colour revolution could be next.

Ung Bun Ang

11xii17

By The Way

According to the following gangster-like language, Hun Sen, who boasts he has eyes like pineapple’s, does not really have everything in the CPP under his control. Someone in his support base that closely monitors his opponents’ activities fails either to discover the 29 November plot Hun Sen claims to overthrow his regime, or to inform him about it. Why?

Maybe they do not want him to murder more than what he does on Veng Sreng Street. Maybe there is no such plot. Maybe it is only a Hun Sen’s hallucination.

Whatever the reasons, his support base can also be his Achilles’ heel. This is particularly so when this support base is driven by their personal interest and wealth stashed overseas.

“ បើខ្ញុំដឹងរឿងហ្នឹង តាំងពីណុង ប្រហែលជាចុងឆ្នាំ២០១៣ និងដើមឆ្នាំ២០១៤ គឺពួក

នេះងាប់អស់ហើយ ងាប់អស់ហើយ។ គេកំណត់យកថ្ងៃទី២៩ ខែធ្នូ ២០១៣ ជាថ្ងៃផ្ដាច់

ព្រ័ត្ររំលំយើង។ បើខ្ញុំឃើញពីពេលណុងនោះណា៎ អ្នកទាំងនោះងាប់តាំងពីណុង ពេល

នេះជាពេលបុណ្យខ្មោចពួកហ្នឹងទៀត ស្ដាយណាស់។ សំណាង ដែលខ្ញុំអត់បានមើល

ឃើញ បើសិនបានមើល……  ថ្ងៃដែលគេប្រកាសណុង ប៉ុន្មានម៉ោងក្រោយ គឺវ៉ៃសង្គ្រប់

យកតែម្ដង​​​.......” ។

នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រីហ៊ុនសែន  ថ្ងៃទី ១៩ វិច្ឆិកា​  ២០១៧   ​ វិទ្យុអាស៊ីសេរី

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CNRP Plan B

“Hun Sen has them (CNRP) right where he wants them.”

Author Sebastian Strangio, 29 August 2017, The Cambodia Daily

“No matter what, the CNRP has prepared a non-violent policy toward the election. We will do everything to make sure the political climate becomes regular for the 2018 election.”

CNRP Spokesman Yim Sovann, 31 August 2017, The Cambodia Daily

Sebastian Strangio may be correct that the CNRP is right where Hun Sen wants them to be – seemingly at a dark corner, confused, and bewildered. The more interesting question is whether the CNRP is capable of being somewhere else. Maybe.

The CNRP’s commitment to making sure the political climate becomes “regular” for the 2018 election is admirable, but their regular election is likely to be just another regular nightmare. They may need Plan B.

The fact is that Hun Sen has already taken measures to make the 2018 election another regular victory for himself. His current assaults on anything he regards as standing between him and his power show he leaves nothing to chance. The leaked CPP confidential manifesto, “The Introduction of Measures for Strategic Implementation: One member, One Vote” is to ensure that every member delivers their vote for the CPP. Hun Sen must be flabbergasted when his opponents win more commune seats, including commune chiefs, in Phnom Penh where there is a high concentration of the CPP members and public servants. A reliable CPP source indicates one of the tactics is to get the members to take a video tape of themselves marking the CPP on ballot paper when voting in 2018.

The Plan B would recognise that Hun Sen will not relinquish his power when he loses the election, and that no foreigner power is committed sufficiently to the CNRP beyond their lip service to make Hun Sen accept a change of government. Several CPP commune chiefs who lose the June commune elections refuse to hand over and/or vacate their office. The Ministry of Interior, which oversees commune administrations, takes no action besides advising incoming and outgoing commune chiefs to sort out their “dispute”. Hun Sen will refuse to move out of the Peace Palace. The armed forces that are bloated with sycophantic generals swearing allegiance to Hun Sen and his family will smash any protesters’ teeth. No matter what, Hun Sen will stay put; there are too much personal interests at stake.

The crux of the Plan B is a political defiance that calls for a CNRP boycott of the 2018 election. Indeed, no victory is sweeter than beating formidable archrivals, and Hun Sen would be deprived of that joy. If the boycott came with an effective campaign for a low voter turnout, Hun Sen would find the absence of glory excruciating. While Hun Sen agonising over his imaginary win in the vacuum, the CNRP might enjoy a well-deserved reprieve from Hun Sen’s all out assaults from now on.

Of course, the CNRP would pay dearly for the political defiance. Their professional parliamentarians would likely lose their jobs and salaries, and the party might be crumbling.

However, they must decide if they are to save their parliamentarians, or the nation. They may opt for the former, renewing Hun Sen’s legitimacy, and live miserably ever after. The arrest of Kem Sokha earlier today ought to convince them that their aim for a regular election is hopelessly naïve.

Ung Bun Ang

3ix17

By The Way

Now that Hun Sen opens his big mouth, everyone knows – The Cambodia Daily owner is a lead thief.

As they say, it takes one to know one. So, is Hun Sen a lead thief too? [Just look at his wealth and his family’s treasure and compare them to his declared incomes, even though Om Yen Tieng can’t connect the dots].

Hun Sen must know Al Capone tactic well enough to pull the same stunt on the Cambodia Daily in a pretence that he and his henchmen are so law abiding. If they are, how much tax have he, his children, and their accomplices paid to the State?

As thieves usually lie, only those with their head in the sand believe Hun Sen that his attack on the Cambodia Daily is anything but political.

“អាមេចោរ [ខេមបូឌា ដេលី] អត់បង់ពន្ធឱ្យរដ្ឋ១០ឆ្នាំ។ អានេះតាំងពីកើតចេញជារូបរាងមក មិនដែលបង់ពន្ធឱ្យរដ្ឋទេ។ បង់ពន្ធឱ្យរដ្ឋមក បើចង់នៅតទៅទៀត។ បើមិនបង់ពន្ធឱ្យរដ្ឋទេ វេចបង្វិចចាកចេញទៅ។ អាហ្នឹងនិយាយគ្នាឱ្យច្បាស់ៗ ហើយគ្មានរឿងនយោបាយនៅក្នុងហ្នឹងទេ។”

នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុន សែន, ថ្ងៃពុធ ទី ២៣ ខែសីហា ឆ្នាំ២០១៧, ខេមបូឌា ដេលី

Pseng-Pseng

In Brief

In the Kingdom of Beasts

It is so ironic. They do not like being referred to as a beast regime, yet they treat each other like beasts. And it is public insults that bring out the beast in Hun Sen.

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ហ៊ុនសែន​ វិទ្យុអាស៊ីសេរី ថ្ងៃទី​ ១៨​ សីហា​ ២០១៧

Now Hun Sen is demanding a moral authority in Buddhist teachings by claiming even Buddha would not be forgiving when insulted. This means, with this newly-claimed moral authority, it will be appropriate for Hun Sen to persecute his critics and opponents, perceived or otherwise.

It is not certain if Hun Sen knows, but contrary to his claim, Buddha is far more forgiving than any soul on Earth. However, he is certain his supporters and apologists will swallow whatever he throws at them.

Ung Bun Ang

19viii17

  

Hun Sen Facing CPP Implosion

«សូម​ផ្ដាំ កុំ​ថារង្ស៊ីមួយ ១០០រង្ស៊ី ហើយ​ហៅ​ទាំង​ខ្មោច សម សារី ដែល​ជា​ឪ​លោក​ឯង​ក្បត់​ជាតិ​មក​ទៀត ក៏ ហ៊ុន សែន មិន​ខ្លាច​ដែរ។ សូម​ផ្ដាំ​ទៅ​លោក​ឯង ខ្ញុំ​មិន​ដែល​ចេះ​ខ្លាច​អ្នក​ណា​ទេ មួយ​ជីវិត​របស់ ហ៊ុន សែន នេះ»។

នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុន សែន [ថ្ងៃ​ទី​៦ ខែ​មីនា] ថ្ងៃ​ទី​១១ ខែ​មីនា ឆ្នាំ​២០១៧ វិទ្យុ​អាស៊ីសេរី 

“In recent days, I have seen the media has published that the government decided to withdraw 3 billion riel of the state budget for organising the [Sok An] funeral… I have conducted a meeting of the CPP’s Standing Committee of the Central Committee. The session agreed I should ask for the money to be returned to the state budget so the CPP can handle all the costs of the funeral…”

CPP Vice-President Say Chhum, 20 March 2017, The Phnom Penh Post, Khmer Times

“We now launch a campaign for a whole year, so all media outlets need to broadcast and say, ‘All microfinance institutions are private, not state-owned,’ starting from tomorrow.”

Premier Hun Sen, 23 February, 2017, The Cambodia Daily

“If we run it too much, too long, it will become boring."

Information Minister Khieu Kanharith, 6 March 2017, The Cambodia Daily

“No drug criminals are sentenced to life. They are all sentenced to 10 years, 15 years. Sometimes the sentence is reduced to only three years and then they come out again to traffic. The law is strict, but the people passing sentences are not strict.”

Deputy Prime Minster Ke Kim Yan, 8 March 2017, The Phnom Penh Post

“I guess before going public about it, Dty [Deputy] PM KKY [Ke Kim Yan] would have certainly consulted Samdech SK [Sar Kheng]. So when I read the statement in the press, my question was not about drug, which is nothing new, but "why" and "why now"? If Dty PM KKY believes in the effectiveness of the ACU [Anti-Corruption Unit] he would already bring the case to ACU... he [Sar Kheng] certainly knows [about impacts on family of drug issues]. If he or KKY could do something they already would. If they don't, it means they just could not.”

Ouk Serei Sopheak, 13 March 2017, Campro (Cambodian Professionals) Network

“He [the King] was away [in Beijing] for both. The King signed the royal decree for Sok An even though he was absent. So, the King could have signed the party law as well.”

Prince Sisowath Thomico, 17 March 2017, The Phnom Penh Post

“The June 4, 2017, election is a secret, general election on the principles of liberal democracy and pluralism and therefore do not be concerned about oppression, threats or intimidation by anybody or any political party at all… I would like all compatriots, brothers, sisters to exercise your right to vote at your will, with your conscience that trusts any candidate, any political party.”

King Norodom Sihamoni, [20 February 2017] 21 March 2017, The Cambodia Daily

Premier Hun Sen lately displays awesome fear of no enemies, dead or alive. He challenges his main adversary Sam Rainsy to call upon another 100 of himself and the ghost of his late father Sam Sary. He says he fears nothing.

He may sound fearless, but a source in his inner circle claims the premier is worried – not about the enemies in front of him – but those in the CPP who profess to support him. After all, he must know only those standing behind him could stab him in the back. They say he trusts very few.

There are several indications of Hun Sen’s worry. First, Sok An’s funeral expenses are now paid for by the CPP, not by the State as per the premier’s order. The CPP Standing Committee meets – the president is not invited – to cancel it. Say Chhum prefers to formally write to the president about the resolution, rather than an informal chat that usually occurs among close colleagues to iron out any issue. A friction-free committee meeting would include its president who would then have a chance to defend their idea.

Second, Hun Sen’s campaign to blanket mobile users with audio and text messages that the government does not own microfinance institutions fails to impress at least one of his CPP colleagues. Hun Sen demands the campaign last twelve months, but Khieu Kanharith finds it boring 10 days after the launch; and it is killed off within a month. Hun Sen may or may not be fuming, but he must be apprehensive.

Third, it is a wide-spread drug problem, or rather the authority’s inability to control it, that brings out CPP high profiles’ irritation and frustration. Recent public outbursts by Ke Kim Yan against corrupt court and prison systems that make his policing job ineffective indicate something is brewing within the CPP. According to Ouk Serei Sopheak, who is known to be close to Sar Kheng, the two deputy premiers are at the end of their tether. One of their forward options may be not to let Hun Sen’s rule continue to worsen.

The fourth is an emergence of King Sihamoni for the very first time in politics. For the King who has been a rubber stamp in silence for Hun Sen’s every whim since ascending the throne in 2004, he must either suddenly acquire a dangerous taste of not being a Hun Sen’s minion, or have support from a CPP faction that is no longer impressed with Hun Sen’s capricious performances. King Sihamoni now begins to select where to put his signature. He appeals to all to vote freely without fear, when Hun Sen has been instilling fear into the voters’ psyche with his constant threat of war and instability almost every time he reaches a microphone. There must be an internal struggle surrounding the appeal that takes a month to release after the King signs it.

Hun Sen is watching his back, nervously. The likelihood is that he will stumble towards a CPP implosion.

Ung Bun Ang

24iii17

By The Way

Hun Sen may share a sentiment like that of the following landlord Thy. The premier would say, “80% of CPP do not support me, but pretend otherwise in public… They express their support to me, but in my mind, I don’t trust them.”

For strongman Hun Sen who instils fear in others, his strategy works only half of the time. When it works, people says they are behind him. When it does not work, they stab him in the back. The intrigue is that Hun Sen does not know when it works or when it does not. He may also have no idea about the other 20%.

“80% of my neighbours support the opposition, but pretend otherwise in public… We expressed our support [for the CPP], but in our mind, we don’t trust them.”

Phnom Penh landlord Thy, 17 March 2017, The Cambodia Daily

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Hun Sen – 15 Years Later…

Fifteen years ago today, the Cambodia Daily published my letter-to-editor, below, discussing many interesting points Hun Sen had made in his in-depth interview with the newspaper. 

Hun Sen then promised reforms, within 10 years, of armed forces, public administration and finance, and judicial system. If by reform he means making all State institutions pander to his every whim, then he is successful. Otherwise, he fails. He has proved he is incapable of building institutions that would serve the nation, not him and his personal interest groups.

Anyhow, he has delivered a lower-middle-income status as promised when Cambodia’s gross national income (GNI) per capital hits $1,070 in 2015. Phnom Penh is flooded with SUVs, high-rise buildings, and infrastructures.

However, given a laissez-faire approach Hun Sen has adopted, the achievement that is inevitable comes with great costs to environment and people’s livelihood: deforestation, sand dredging, river ecosystem and fishery disruptions, insidious evictions, labour exploitations, food poisoning, traffic deaths and congestions, and increasing income inequalities between the well-connected and others.

It is the progress that only 3% of the population World Bank considers prospers, leaving a majority destitute. About 11.2 million people (72%) survive on a maximum daily income of $2.60; among them, 3.1 million struggle with less than $1.26. They would need a Thy Sovantha wonder to get off the Hun Sen poverty trap.

Cambodian people, especially intellectuals who form a pillar of any nation, are fundamentally broken. They coddle Hun Sen’s peace and stability that shoot civilians on the streets, execute, and jail his credible critics at will. Those intellectuals who have benefited from Hun Sen’s corrupt autocracy are at the forefront justifying anything Hun Sen dishes out. Like Hun Sen, they are prepared to pay anything for their peace and personal interests.

Now, Hun Sen says he will hang on for another four decades. Will he? “Yes” is the answer – he will remain premier, even with life support. His followers will keep him in office, or in coma, until they carry him out in a box.

Anyhow, will he achieve by 2030 his aim of an upper-middle-income status that currently requires a GNI per capita of $4,036, and a high-income status (with $12,745 GNI) by 2050?

Unlikely, unless he becomes more ruthless than he has ever been. Between 2010 and 2015 Cambodia’s GNI per capita grows at 9.8% per year. Assuming an annual inflation of 2.50% and population growth of 1.57%, the GNI will need an average yearly increase of 14.6% until 2030. It will be much higher if the status threshold of $4,036 is inflation-adjusted. This means whatever Hun Sen has done to achieve the lower-middle-income status must be escalated for the next target. He must cut down more trees; dredging more sand; begging China for more funds to build infrastructures; exploiting more cheap labour; letting many more of the 72% die from inadequate healthcare and traffic accidents, etc.

Hence, the light at the end of the tunnel Cambodian people have been waiting for is increasingly an oncoming train.

Ung Bun Ang

09i17

Concerning the Hun Sen interview (Cambodia Daily, Jan 1-4): Former French president Charles de Gaulle supposedly once said, “Since a politician never believes what he says, he is surprised when others believe him.”

The interview was impressive from a public relations perspective. The prime minister knows the public relations game well. He should earn significant political points for ingratiating himself with King Norodom Sihanouk. With his long record of abusing the King in the past, his sincerity is open to question. But maybe he has changed.

The Cambodia Daily seemed so impressed with his ideas about liberal democracy that it asked him when he developed such thoughts. A cynic would argue that commune elections could have been held much sooner and without enormous pressure from donor countries to do so.

Given the countless human rights violations inflicted upon his opposition, it is difficult to believe the prime minister was really committed to liberal democracy all those years. If it is a newly acquired idea, then the absence of any violence before the elections would support his claims.

According to the prime minister, in the next 10 years, “We need to reform the armed forces, administration, judicial and court system, as well as public finance.”

A skeptic would question whether reform is possible under the current regime, which for 23 years has been based primarily on the culture of violence and corruption. The current crooked characters of those institutions never have been seriously challenged. Any genuine reform would certainly erode the power base of the current regime.

If only the prime minister had a decent track record of matching his words with deeds, then his words in the interview would be music to all ears.

Unfortunately, his record shows he very often talks of principles, but acts in his personal interest. An optimist would say maybe he has changed.

Hun Sen says another Khmer Rouge-type massacre could not occur because “We have the constitution to prevent it.” The jury is still out on whether the current constitution could prevent such catastrophe. It has been ignored, manipulated, and changed to suit the political expediency. I doubt it is worth the paper it is printed on.

The prime minister claims he supported the 1993 elections, and says he was put under house arrest because elements in the CPP wanted to replace him. Yet those same elements accepted him as second prime minister when that position was created to appease those who were prepared to take up arms again. For the prime minister’s claim to be logical, those CPP elements would have favoured someone else for second prime minister.

It is a clever public relations exercise to say the Throne Council will choose the next king. But impartial observers would say the council, like other state instruments, has been stacked with members under the influence of the prime minister. His assumed modesty on this topic is touching.

When the prime minister vows to spend the second half of his life fighting poverty, it seems his immediate priority is to jointly build a golf course with Thailand and Laos. The poor in that region may take some comfort that their leaders will get rid of land mines first. He says he aims to raise the per capita income to $1,000. He may just do it. As he knows from his 23 years’ experience running the country, per capita income can be increased by substantially raising incomes for the rich and powerful.

Overall, a close scrutiny of the prime minister’s interview reveals that, just as it has been for the past 700 years, Cambodians will have to wait for the light at the end of the tunnel, and hope it is not an oncoming train.

Ung Bun Ang

Melbourne, Australia.

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Pseng-Pseng is published irregularly. Previous issues are archived at pseng-pseng.blogspot.com