Hun Sen Facing CPP Implosion
«សូមផ្ដាំ កុំថារង្ស៊ីមួយ ១០០រង្ស៊ី ហើយហៅទាំងខ្មោច សម សារី ដែលជាឪលោកឯងក្បត់ជាតិមកទៀត ក៏ ហ៊ុន សែន មិនខ្លាចដែរ។ សូមផ្ដាំទៅលោកឯង ខ្ញុំមិនដែលចេះខ្លាចអ្នកណាទេ មួយជីវិតរបស់ ហ៊ុន សែន នេះ»។
នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុន សែន [ថ្ងៃទី៦ ខែមីនា] ថ្ងៃទី១១ ខែមីនា ឆ្នាំ២០១៧ វិទ្យុអាស៊ីសេរី
“In recent days, I have seen the media has published that the government decided to withdraw 3 billion riel of the state budget for organising the [Sok An] funeral… I have conducted a meeting of the CPP’s Standing Committee of the Central Committee. The session agreed I should ask for the money to be returned to the state budget so the CPP can handle all the costs of the funeral…”
CPP Vice-President Say Chhum, 20 March 2017, The Phnom Penh Post, Khmer Times
“We now launch a campaign for a whole year, so all media outlets need to broadcast and say, ‘All microfinance institutions are private, not state-owned,’ starting from tomorrow.”
Premier Hun Sen, 23 February, 2017, The Cambodia Daily
“If we run it too much, too long, it will become boring."
Information Minister Khieu Kanharith, 6 March 2017, The Cambodia Daily
“No drug criminals are sentenced to life. They are all sentenced to 10 years, 15 years. Sometimes the sentence is reduced to only three years and then they come out again to traffic. The law is strict, but the people passing sentences are not strict.”
Deputy Prime Minster Ke Kim Yan, 8 March 2017, The Phnom Penh Post
“I guess before going public about it, Dty [Deputy] PM KKY [Ke Kim Yan] would have certainly consulted Samdech SK [Sar Kheng]. So when I read the statement in the press, my question was not about drug, which is nothing new, but "why" and "why now"? If Dty PM KKY believes in the effectiveness of the ACU [Anti-Corruption Unit] he would already bring the case to ACU... he [Sar Kheng] certainly knows [about impacts on family of drug issues]. If he or KKY could do something they already would. If they don't, it means they just could not.”
Ouk Serei Sopheak, 13 March 2017, Campro (Cambodian Professionals) Network
“He [the King] was away [in Beijing] for both. The King signed the royal decree for Sok An even though he was absent. So, the King could have signed the party law as well.”
Prince Sisowath Thomico, 17 March 2017, The Phnom Penh Post
“The June 4, 2017, election is a secret, general election on the principles of liberal democracy and pluralism and therefore do not be concerned about oppression, threats or intimidation by anybody or any political party at all… I would like all compatriots, brothers, sisters to exercise your right to vote at your will, with your conscience that trusts any candidate, any political party.”
King Norodom Sihamoni, [20 February 2017] 21 March 2017, The Cambodia Daily
Premier Hun Sen lately displays awesome fear of no enemies, dead or alive. He challenges his main adversary Sam Rainsy to call upon another 100 of himself and the ghost of his late father Sam Sary. He says he fears nothing.
He may sound fearless, but a source in his inner circle claims the premier is worried – not about the enemies in front of him – but those in the CPP who profess to support him. After all, he must know only those standing behind him could stab him in the back. They say he trusts very few.
There are several indications of Hun Sen’s worry. First, Sok An’s funeral expenses are now paid for by the CPP, not by the State as per the premier’s order. The CPP Standing Committee meets – the president is not invited – to cancel it. Say Chhum prefers to formally write to the president about the resolution, rather than an informal chat that usually occurs among close colleagues to iron out any issue. A friction-free committee meeting would include its president who would then have a chance to defend their idea.
Second, Hun Sen’s campaign to blanket mobile users with audio and text messages that the government does not own microfinance institutions fails to impress at least one of his CPP colleagues. Hun Sen demands the campaign last twelve months, but Khieu Kanharith finds it boring 10 days after the launch; and it is killed off within a month. Hun Sen may or may not be fuming, but he must be apprehensive.
Third, it is a wide-spread drug problem, or rather the authority’s inability to control it, that brings out CPP high profiles’ irritation and frustration. Recent public outbursts by Ke Kim Yan against corrupt court and prison systems that make his policing job ineffective indicate something is brewing within the CPP. According to Ouk Serei Sopheak, who is known to be close to Sar Kheng, the two deputy premiers are at the end of their tether. One of their forward options may be not to let Hun Sen’s rule continue to worsen.
The fourth is an emergence of King Sihamoni for the very first time in politics. For the King who has been a rubber stamp in silence for Hun Sen’s every whim since ascending the throne in 2004, he must either suddenly acquire a dangerous taste of not being a Hun Sen’s minion, or have support from a CPP faction that is no longer impressed with Hun Sen’s capricious performances. King Sihamoni now begins to select where to put his signature. He appeals to all to vote freely without fear, when Hun Sen has been instilling fear into the voters’ psyche with his constant threat of war and instability almost every time he reaches a microphone. There must be an internal struggle surrounding the appeal that takes a month to release after the King signs it.
Hun Sen is watching his back, nervously. The likelihood is that he will stumble towards a CPP implosion.
Ung Bun Ang
By The Way
Hun Sen may share a sentiment like that of the following landlord Thy. The premier would say, “80% of CPP do not support me, but pretend otherwise in public… They express their support to me, but in my mind, I don’t trust them.”
For strongman Hun Sen who instils fear in others, his strategy works only half of the time. When it works, people says they are behind him. When it does not work, they stab him in the back. The intrigue is that Hun Sen does not know when it works or when it does not. He may also have no idea about the other 20%.
“80% of my neighbours support the opposition, but pretend otherwise in public… We expressed our support [for the CPP], but in our mind, we don’t trust them.”
Phnom Penh landlord Thy, 17 March 2017, The Cambodia Daily
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