Hun Sen’s Successor: Sam Rainsy or Sar Kheng?

​​“This is why I need to say this again and again – while Hun Sen is holding power, a coup will not happen.”

Prime Minister Hun Sen, 25 January 2019, The Phnom Penh Post

«បើខ្ញុំឲ្យហ៊ុនសែនចាប់ខ្ញុំ ខ្ញុំក្លាយ ទៅជាកែមឡី ខ្ញុំក្លាយទៅជាកឹមសុខា។ ឥឡូវកែមឡីជាវីរបុរសមែន ប៉ុន្តែកែមឡីមានបានជួយប្រជាពលរដ្ឋ ឲ្យរំដោះខ្លួនពីរបបផ្ដាច់ការមកដល់ពេលនេះទេ? អត់ទេ។ លោកកឹមសុខាឲ្យហ៊ុនសែនចាប់ ឥឡូវនេះរងការឃុំឃាំងពីពន្ធនាគារ មកឃុំឃាំងក្នុងផ្ទះ អត់មានសេរីភាព តើជួយរំដោះប្រជាពលរដ្ឋ បានទេ? ជួយទៅ បំផុសបំផុលអន្តរជាតិបានទេ?... ខ្ញុំមិនទៅឆោត ឲ្យគេចាប់ងាយៗ ឲ្យគេសម្លាប់ងាយៗ ទេ។ យើងធ្វើអី យើងត្រូវតែលៃលកឲ្យ មានលទ្ធភាពឈ្នះ ឲ្យប្រជារាស្ត្រឈ្នះ យើងរៀបចំផែនការណាមួយដែលជោគជ័យ យើងមិនទៅធ្វើ លេងៗ ឲ្យគេកម្ចាត់យើងងាយៗ អ៊ីចឹងទេ។ បំណងរបស់ខ្ញុំ គឺចង់ឈ្នះដោយសន្តិវិធី។

ប្រធាន​ស្តីទី​គណបក្ស​សង្គ្រោះ​ជាតិ សម រង្ស៊ី ថ្ងៃ​ទី១៨ ខែកុម្ភៈ ​ ឆ្នាំ២០១៩ ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍

“គ្រប់​ជ័យ​ជម្នះរបស់​គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជន​កម្ពុជា មិន​មែន​កើត​ឡើង​ដោយ​សារ​តែអច្ឆរិយ​បុគ្គល​ណា​មួយ​ឡើយ តែ​គឺ​ជា​ការ​ប្រមូល​ផ្តុំ​នូវ​ការ​ខិត​ខំ​ប្រឹង​ប្រែងរបស់ថ្នាក់​ដឹក​នាំ និង​ការ​ចូល​រួម​គាំទ្រ​ពី​ប្រជាពលរដ្ឋ​ ។”

រដ្ឋមន្ត្រី​ក្រសួង​មហាផ្ទៃ ស ខេង ​ថ្ងៃ​ទី១១ ខែកុម្ភៈ ​ ឆ្នាំ២០១៩ វិទ្យុបារាំងអន្តរជាតិ

“គេមិនយកកម្លាំងយោធាទៅអនុវត្តន៍ដីកាទេ... មានអី នឹកយោធា ​ទៅប្រើយោធា  រដ្ឋច្បាស់អន្តរធាន ហើយ... យើងគិតតែមួយជ្រុង ពីយើងកាន់អំណាច ប៉ុន្តែកាន់អំណាច វាមិនមែនអាងទៅលើកំភ្លើង នោះទេ។ វាមិនមែនអញ្ចឹងទេ មិនមែនទេ។ ស្ថានការណ៏ឥឡូវនេះ គឺយើងលេងអញ្ចឹងអត់បាន ហើយទៅមុខនេះ រឹតតែមិនបានទៀត។”

រដ្ឋមន្រ្តីក្រសួងមហាផ្ទៃ ស​ខេង   ថ្ងៃទី១៣​ កុម្ភៈ ២០១៩   វិទ្យុអាស៊ីសេរី

Hun Sen has issued a stern warning: while he is charge, no coup d’état will ever happen, let alone succeed. He may or may not be right. There are two possible sources of a coup: Sam Rainsy revolt or a CPP insider.

The revolt is unlikely, despite a cacophony surrounding Sam Rainsy’s talk of going home. First, he is risk-averse, incapable of capitalising on what usually arises from jailed and/or dead heroes. He claims dead heroes like Kem Ley, cannot help liberating people from dictatorship. He says jailed Kem Sokha cannot and does not influence international opinions or actions.

Obviously, he trivialises impacts of jailed or dead heroes, like Gandhi, Mandela, Luther King, Aquino, etc… that initiate turning points in the world. He fails to fully appreciate why the US and EU currently put pressures on Hun Sen. Then again, for each dead or jailed hero in human history, there are thousands of politicians who are nothing more than just political irritations to their nemesis.

Second, Sam Rainsy still speaks of peaceful means when opposing a mafia-like Hun Sen whose ruthless killing is legendary. He may forget his previous humiliating encounters with Hun Sen when offering his written apologies to his nemesis in exchange for Hun Sen’s peace and mercy.

Sam Rainsy says he is waiting for a right moment to return.

Perhaps, after a CPP implosion that has tormented Hun Sen.

CPP’s Sar Kheng has already opened fires. First, he claims all the CPP victories have not been achieved by any single extraordinary person; they have come from a collective effort of the whole CPP leadership. Sar Kheng must be disgusted with the recently inaugurated Win-Win Monument that glorifies only Hun Sen. He demands the local media refer to the Royal Government of Cambodia, not “Hun Sen” government.

Second, Sar Kheng, who controls the police force, takes a firm stance against military groups that commit violent crackdowns on victims of land disputes in Preah Sihanouk and Kratie provinces. Even though he knows the military is under a full control of Hun Sen’s son and his close cohorts, Sar Kheng pulls no punches when declaring that powerful people cannot use armed forces to serve court orders. He is adamant they cannot rely on their guns, not now, not in the future. He has drawn a line in the sand.

A bad omen for Hun Sen is that Ministry of National Defence spokesman Chhum Socheat comes out to support Sar Kheng’s position. This should not, however, surprise Hun Sen as he knows Sar Kheng is well-connected. A secret ballot Hun Sen conducts in early January reveals the almost 1,000 members of the CPP Central Committee prefer Sar Kheng, not Hun Manet, as their next premier.

Anyhow, while it is uncertain who will be left standing after a duel of the CPP titans, the risk averse Sam Rainsy will miss out. A new Sar Kheng government would be unlikely to welcome him home and his role. He may remain a political outcast.

Ung Bun Ang

22ii19

Fake News You Can Use

After his trip to China, Hun Sen agrees to sit down with Pseng-Pseng Frank Chat.

FC:    According to you, Sire, your recent trip to China is very successful. Congratulations.

HS:   Yes, I rake in the Chinese yuan by the billion, and Xi’s special assurance that China will remain behind me all the way to fight the EU and US nonsensical trade pressures on me.

FC:    How did you convince China to do so much for you?

HS:   I reported to Xi, among other issues, the political situations in Cambodia after the general elections, government reform programs, my determination to prevent external interference into Cambodia’s internal affairs, and my request for more Chinese investors in Cambodia.

FC:    Did President Xi report to you internal political situations in China and his government programs for China?

HS:   No, he didn’t. Why should he? You must know China is a sovereign State adhering to a principle that it allows no foreigners, including me, to meddle in its internal affairs.

FC:    But why do you report Cambodian problems to China if, like you say, Cambodia is a sovereign state?

HS:   Well, you need to put out your dirty linen for your benefactor to see that you really need their assistance and what they can do to help.

FC:    So, when you ask foreigners for help sort out Cambodian internal affairs it is not an interference; otherwise, they are meddling. Is that right?

HS:   Yes, just like when I asked Vietnam to come in. It is a quintessence of my win-win policy – Vietnam wins, and I win.

FC:    Is it true that the CPP Central Committee choose Sar Kheng, not your son Manet, to succeed you?

HS:   Yes, but you know only my opinion counts.

FC:    Sorry, Sire, I must run now. I can hear something ticking…

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Pseng-Pseng is published irregularly. Previous issues are archived at pseng-pseng.blogspot.com

Sar Kheng Standing Behind Hun Sen

«ឥឡូវគាត់លេងផែនការចូលមក ៥០/៥0។ សម រង្ស៊ីអ៊ី ចេះអាចប្រថុយប្រថាន។ ប៉ុន្តែប្រថុយប្រថានពេលហ្នឹងឥឡូវ យើងយ៉ាងម៉េច? គណបក្សនេះ គណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិសព្វថ្ងៃ អត់មានទេ។ អត់មានគណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិទេ ជាផ្លូវច្បាប់។ សម រង្ស៊ី ទៅធ្វើប្រធានស្តីទីគណបក្សដែលអត់មាន នេះ។ អាហ្នឹង យើងយល់ថាម៉េច? គណបក្សវារលាយបាត់ហើយ វាអត់មានគណបក្ស ហ្នឹងទេ។ មានចុះបញ្ជីនៅក្រសួងមហាផ្ទៃឯណាទៀត បើតុលាការលុបបាត់ហើយ។ គាត់ទៅធ្វើប្រធានស្តីទី ជាផ្លូវច្បាប់ អ្នកណាទទួលស្គាល់?។ អត់ទាំងបានចុះបញ្ជីនៅក្រសួងមហាផ្ទៃផង ឲ្យគេទទួលស្គាល់! បើចុះ ក៏យើងមិនចុះឲ្យដែរ។»

រដ្ឋមន្ត្រី​ក្រសួង​មហាផ្ទៃ ស ខេង ​ថ្ងៃ​ទី២៨ ខែ​មករា ឆ្នាំ២០១៩ ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍

Deputy Prime Minister Sar Kheng (SK) agrees to sit down and chat to Pseng-Pseng Frank Chat (FC). The following is an excerpt.

FC: Welcome to Frank Chat.

SK: It’s my pleasure to be frank.

FC: Your statement above shows you are going all out to ensure Sam Rainsy will not return. Why?

SK: There is no need for him to put himself at risk. There will be some changes in Cambodia.

FC: Oh, how so?

SK: Are you aware that the CPP Central Committee chooses me to succeed Hun Sen, not his son Hun Manet?

FC: Yes, but how did you know that when Hun Sen had hijacked the ballot box and counted the votes himself at home?

SK: Of course, one of my narks informed me of the outcome.

FC: Were you surprised that you were the chosen one, not his son?

SK: No.

FC: Why did Hun Sen hijack the ballot box though?

SK: You must understand the man has been worried sick about the current situation, especially an ever-growing frustration within the CPP. He is holding a time bomb close to his chest; and it is ticking.

FC: Why does he hold it close to his chest?

SK: Well, he’s in charge. He has been calling all the shots, hasn’t he?

FC: When do you think it is going to explode?

SK: Not if I can help it. Because if it does, not only Hun Sen and his families that will go into pieces, so too will the whole CPP including me. I must take charge to defuse it.

FC: Many people believe you are standing behind Hun Sen all the way.

SK: Indeed, I am. They say only a true friend stabs you in the front. I would prefer doing it from the back.

FC: Hun Sen has disarmed all troops particularly those deployed at the borders; all weapons throughout the country are appropriated, stored, and locked in warehouses. And Hun Manet has the key.

SK: There is always an Achilles heel in any person or organisation.

FC: Hun Manet is building up his elite troops with new recruits. His father removed many once-trusted generals from top positions like dead heaps.

SK: That is one of the most important triggers that tick away the bomb.

FC: When is the right time to make your move?

SK: When the internal tension reaches the point of no return, I will take over just before the bomb explodes. The overthrow will give a distinct impression to everyone that there will be changes, or something different is on the card. The US and EU pressures would somewhat dissipate to give the new regime a breathing space. It could be a long breathing space for my pig (Personal Interest Group).

FC: In this scenario, where is Sam Rainsy? He is now asking the people to rise.

SK: Yes, against Hun Sen, not against me. Sam Rainsy could wait until I work out how the 2023 elections will deliver me pre-determined results.

Ung Bun Ang

11ii19

Fake News You Can Use

So, according to Dr Ky Sereyvuth, director of Centre for China Studies of the Royal Academy of Cambodia, there are strings attached to all foreign aid, except some are, some are not. Yeah, right. Does the director know what he is talking about? His mind must be wandering in awe around the enormity and generosity of the Chinese aid.

The muddled doctor also assures his Radio France Internationale listeners that there are only winners in trade – no losers. He may be right for a PhD who adores every ounce of Chinese aid.

Nevertheless, it is uncertain if the director is ignorant, or ignores to mention that a country – in his field of Centre study China – with a huge and persistent trade surplus with Cambodia is a “better” winner – much better than its partner that carries a chronic trade deficit years after years.

“ជំនួយណាក៍មានចំណងដែរ គ្រាន់តែជំនួយខ្លះមានចំណង ជំនួយខ្លះអត់ចំណង។ ”

ប្រធាន​មជ្ឈមណ្ឌល​សិក្សា​ចិន​នៃ​រាជ​បណ្ឌិត​សភា​កម្ពុជាបណ្ឌិត គី​ សិរីវឌ្ឍន៍   វិទ្យុបារាំងអន្តរជាតិ ថ្ងៃទី២៣ មករា​ ២០១៩

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Hun Sen’s Imaginary Arrest

“ខ្ញុំសុំយកឧកាសនេះ ដើម្បីទម្លាយនូវអាថ៌កំបាំងមួយដែលអ្នកដ៏ទៃមិនបានដឹង។ ប៉ុន្តែ ឥស្សរជននៅទីនេះមួយចំនួនបានដឹង: ឯកឧត្តមទាបាញ់ ឯកឧត្តមកែគីមយ៉ាន ឯកឧត្តម ប៉ុលសារឿន។ ខ្ញុំនិងឯកឧត្តមប៉ុលសារឿនក្នុងឋានៈជានាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ជាប្រធានក្រុម ប្រឹក្សារដ្ឋមន្ត្រីនៅពេលនោះ ហើយឯកឧត្តមប៉ុលសារឿនជានាយអគ្គសេនាធិការ នៅ ពេលនោះ ត្រូវបានគេចាប់ឃុំក្នុងផ្ទះរួចស្រេចទៅហើយ។ ប្រហែលជានេះជាព្រឹត្តិការណ៍

ដែលអ្នកការទូតទាំងឡាយ និងប្រិយមិត្តបរទេសអាចដឹងយល់អំពីបញ្ហានេះ។ គឺនៅថ្ងៃទី២ ខែមិថុនា ឆ្នាំ១៩៩៣ ឯកឧត្តមប៉ុលសារឿនត្រូវបានគេចាប់ឃុំនៅក្នុងផ្ទះមុនខ្លួនខ្ញុំ។ បន្ទាប់ ទៅ ខ្ញុំក៍ត្រូវ ជាការធ្វេសប្រហែសដ៍ធំមួយរបស់ខ្ញុំ ដែលបានធ្វើដំណើរទៅកាន់ផ្ទះអ្នកដ៍ទៃ ហើយមានតែតៃកុងឡានម្នាក់និងមានអង្គរក្សម្នាក់ ខ្ញុំក៍ត្រូវបានចាប់ឃុំក្នុងផ្ទះ។ ប៉ុន្តែខ្ញុំក៍ បានប្រាប់ទៅអ្នកដែលចាប់ខ្ញុំឃុំនៅក្នុងផ្ទះថា ដើម្បីជៀសវាងការបង្ហូរឈាម ខ្ញុំសុខចិត្ត ចាកចេញពីដំណែង ហើយប្រគល់ឲ្យអស់លោកធ្វើនាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រីបន្ត ព្រោះអ្នកទាំង នោះមិនព្រមទទួលស្គាល់លទ្ធផលនៃការបោះឆ្នោតនោះទេ។ ដូច្នេះដើម្បីនឹងដោះស្រាយ បញ្ហារបស់ពួកគេ គឺចាប់នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រីហ៊ុនសែន ដែលជាអ្នកយុទ្ធសាស្ត្រធំបំផុត របស់ គណបក្សប្រជាជនតែម្តង។ ខ្ញុំបានប្រាប់ថា យើងមិនអាចធ្វើយ៉ាងដូច្នេះទេ កុំជៀស ដើម្បី ជៀសវាង ការបង្ហូរឈាម។ ល្ងាចនេះ នៅម៉ោង៦ល្ងាច ខ្ញុំនឹងប្រកាសលាលែងចេញពី ដំណែង ឲ្យរដ្ឋសភារបស់អតីតរដ្ឋសភារបស់រដ្ឋកម្ពុជានៅសេសសល់ សុំបោះឆ្នោតជ្រើស រើសនាយក រដ្ឋមន្ត្រីថ្មី។ ពេលនោះខ្ញុំនៅចាំបានថា ឯកឧត្តមទាបាញ់ និងឯកឧត្តម កែគីមយ៉ាន បានប្រតិកម្មយ៉ាងខ្លាំង ហើយបានបញ្ជាក់ថា ប្រសិនបើមានការលាលែងពី ដំណែងរបស់ខ្លួនខ្ញុំ ការបង្ហូរឈាមមួយនឹងត្រូវចាប់ផ្តើម។ ដូច្នោះបំណងប្រាថ្នានៃការចាប់ ខ្លួនហ៊ុនសែន ដើម្បី នឹងសំរេចនូវការបំផ្លាញចោលលទ្ធផលនៃការបោះឆ្នោតឆ្នាំ១៩៩៣ ដែលរៀបចំដោយ អ៊ុនតាក់ គឺមិនត្រូវបានសំរេច តាមរយៈការជួយសង្គ្រោះ ដែលខ្ញុំសុំយក ឧកាសនេះ ថ្លែងនូវការអរគុណចំពោះអ្នកទាំងឡាយ ដែលជាពិសេសឯកឧត្តមទាបាញ់ ឯកឧត្តមកែគីមយ៉ាន ដែលជួយសង្គ្រោះខ្ញុំនៅក្នុងកាលៈទេសៈដ៍លំបាកនោះ។ ...​ ខ្លួនខ្ញុំទទូច ឲ្យមានទទួលស្គាល់ ឲ្យទទួលស្គាល់នូវលទ្ធផលនៃការ បោះឆ្នោត បើទោះបីជាការចាត់តាំង ការបោះឆ្នោតដ៍ស្មោគគ្រោករបស់អ៊ុនតាក់ ក៍ប៉ុន្តែ យើងត្រូវតែទទួលស្គាល់នូវលទ្ធផលនៃ ការបោះឆ្នោតនោះ។ ដោយសារភាពរឹងរូស របស់ខ្ញុំនេះហើយ បានជាខ្ញុំត្រូវទទួលនូវការចាប់ខ្លួន។”

នាយក​រដ្ឋ​មន្ត្រី​ ហ៊ុនសែន  ថ្ងៃទី​២៤​ មករា​ ២០១៩    ​​វិទ្យុបារាំងអន្តរជាតិ

According to Hun Sen, there was a major showdown among CPP top officials on how to deal with the party’s loss in the 1993 UNTAC-organised elections. Hun Sen says he was prepared to accept the loss and step down from the top job. Others objected and arrested him. Hun Sen does not say who the mutineers were, but expresses his gratitude to Tea Banh and Ke Kim Yan, who he says reacted very strongly to his willingness to quit, for coming to rescue and release him. The mutineers and rescuers could be in the same cohort; Hun Sen says they all spoke of bloodshed without him in charge.

As it turned out, not only did Hun Sen stay he forced his way to remain in power post-election. The new government had to include Hun Sen as a second prime minister to avoid his threat of secession and renewed war.

If the story were true, Hun Sen would be a committed democrat of Kneenex tissues type – thick and soft. He says he told the party to accept the elections’ results, notwithstanding, he says, the “filthy” process. Only those with rocks in their head would accept a loss in a filthy election, while only autocrats and dictators would welcome any elections they win, no matter how dirty they are.

Hun Sen cannot be the Kleenex tissues type. After all, he proclaims himself to be a CPP top strategist. He often refers to conniving schemes and plots he has learned so well from Chinese epic The Three Kingdoms. He has climbed to the top within a communist hierarchy for fourteen years prior to the UNTAC elections. In that period, Hun Sen enjoys absolute power for eight years under a ten-year close control and mentoring of the Vietnamese communists. Would any autocrats or communists like Hun Sen give up power so readily? Unlikely.

Thus, why does Hun Sen choose to reveal this fiction? Why now?

Perhaps he wants others to believe he is a democrat, and more importantly, to agree that democrats ought to accept elections’ outcomes, no matter how filthy their processes are. He can say he has. This would mitigate enormous pressures put on his regime by the EU and US that value little his brand of democracy. It cannot be a comfort for Hun Sen to witness the thrust of western democracies’ intervention in a current political upheaval in Venezuela supporting the country’s opposition and demanding a fresh election. It seems like a disaster being unveiled for an already-anxious Hun Sen.

Perhaps the fiction is just a relief valve for Hun Sen to cope with the intensifying pressures from various quarters. His constant display of power – vulgar verbal abuses, assassinations of critics, movements of troops and military hardware, shootings of demonstrators, intense persecutions of members of the court-dissolved opposition party, and harassments of dissidents, seems only to worsen his stress. The accumulated tensions he has brought upon himself over the years may eventually be enough to push him over the edge.

Ung Bun Ang

02ii19

Fake News You Can Use

It is time some PhD surrounding Tea Banh or the West Point graduate broke their balls answering the minister’s question in the following quotation: a regular election alone does not sufficiently constitute democracy.

While they are putting their neck on the chopping block, they might as well tell the minister to give the international communities some intelligence. They cannot be that stupid to believe everything the small group of his opponents tell them. Tea Banh needs to know even in the old time Khmer ancestors still could come up with proverb that, “Don’t use a flat-basket to cover up the dead elephant”, let alone in an age of advanced information technology when too many people have access to smart phones, cameras, internet, Facebook, etc…

Then again, the man may not be capable of comprehending anything beyond his own fake news.

«… ហើយប្រទេសទាំងនោះ ឆោតល្ងង់ ចាញ់បោកការភូតកុហករបស់ក្រុមប្រឆាំង។ ខ្ញុំយល់ម្យ៉ាងចាញ់បោកក្រុមតូច១ បោកបាន។ គេដើរបោកថា កម្ពុជាអត់មានគោរពប្រជាធិបតេយ្យ និងដើរបោក កម្ពុជាហ្នឹងអត់ចេះគោរពសិទ្ធិមនុស្សទេ។ អានោះជឿតែម្តង… យើងមានលទ្ធិប្រជាធិបតេយ្យ ដោយរៀបចំការបោះឆ្នោត មិនដែលយឺតយ៉ាវ ។ តើនោះមិនមែនជាលទ្ធិប្រជាធិបតេយ្យទេឬ?។ »

ឧបនាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី និង រដ្ឋមន្ត្រីក្រសួងការពារជាតិ ទៀ បាញ់ ថ្ងៃ​ទី១៥ មករា ឆ្នាំ២០១៩ ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍

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