Funny News From 2018 Elections

“… its [Hun Sen’s elections] legitimacy is arguably no lesser than the other [Malaysian recent elections], because … it was a multi-party election. And it is not a sure thing that had the CNRP been allowed to participate, it would have won.”

Davan Long, 9 August 2018, Bangkok Post Opinion

“It took Malaysians over 60 years to change a government. If Cambodia were to follow their example, it still has 30 more years to go…” [sic]

Davan Long, 9 August 2018, Bangkok Post Opinion

“The general picture before and after the election, and the stance of the GDP, is that the CNRP effectively handed the National Assembly’s full 125 seats to the CPP when it urged people to boycott the elections or spoil their ballot.”

Grassroots Democratic Party (GDP) President Yang Saing Koma, 2 August 2018, The Phnom Penh Post

« អ្នកឯងហ៊ានចោទថា ប្រជាពលរដ្ឋត្រូវគេបំប៉ោង ត្រូវគេបំភិតបំភ័យ ត្រូវគេស្អីអ៊ីចេះអ៊ីចុះ។ ហ៊ានស្បថឬ អត់? បើហ៊ាន ឥឡូវបង្ហោះតាមហ្វេសប៊ុកមក។ ឥឡូវ ខ្ញុំសូមស្បថមុន ស្បថឲ្យងាប់គ្រប់ទម្រង់ ឲ្យតែយមរាជចង់ ឲ្យខ្ញុំងាប់ឡានបុកក៏ដោយ ធ្លាក់កប៉ាល់ហោះក៏ដោយ ខ្សែភ្លើងឆក់ក៏ដោយ រន្ទះបាញ់ក៏ដោយ ស្អីក៏ដោយ ប្រភេទស្អីក៏ដោយ ឲ្យតែងាប់ ។ អ្នកឯងហ៊ានទេ? រុញអ្នកឯងឲ្យដល់ ជញ្ជាំងតែម្ដង។ »

នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុនសែន ​ថ្ងៃទី​៧ ខែ​សីហា ឆ្នាំ​២០១៨ ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍

“But I have noted some pressure and fear [in the elections] too.”

Centre for Policy Studies Director Chan Sophal, 1 August 2018, Campro

Besides news and fake news, there is funny news. A Campro member defines it as the one that is hilarious if untrue.

The 2018 elections bring out many pieces of funny news. Davan Long claims twenty parties participating in the July elections are numerous enough for an election legitimacy, hence for Hun Sen’s new government. It is irrelevant that nineteen of them are feeble and must depend on one gigantic party to run the elections with pre-arranged outcomes.

Long also argues a forced absence of the only formidable party from competing the elections does not affect the legitimacy – because it is uncertain that it can win. Long decides on behalf of voters which party can or cannot win before allowing them to partake. Thus, he must believe these nineteen feeble parties can win. Who is he kidding, besides himself?

Another piece of funny news from Long is, as it takes 60 years for Malaysia to change a government, Cambodia will need another 30 years to do likewise. What Long ignores, or does not know, is that for the past 61 years, Malaysia has had seven prime ministers presiding over at least seven governments. Nevertheless, Cambodia can still match this Malaysian record if it is to have six different premiers in the next three decades.

Then there is a Khmer Rise Party in the elections. By Long’s funny criterion for competing in elections, this party must be able to win. Yet, its president Soksovann Vatthanasarapong does not put his name down as a candidate. He tells RFI listeners his reason: he wants free time and freedom to conduct election campaigns and connect with communities and voters. How amusing.

Another Long’s winnable is the GDP. But it loses; and its president puts a blame on CNRP for calling an election boycott, during which he has still predicted a 75% voter turnout and claimed a higher turnout will give his party a better chance of victory.

As it happens, the turnout is higher at 83% but only 70,587 voters favour GDP. A funny part is that a CNRP spin-off Khmer Will Party, founded merely a month before the elections, secures 212,869 votes with 65% of its candidates being former CNRP grassroot members.

Perhaps the funniest news of all is Hun Sen’s resort to a death’s oath in response to his opponents’ allegation that his elections are rigged with an inflated turnout, threats, coercions, intimidations, etc. If the allegation is proven, Hun Sen swears to die in any manner as lord of death Yama desires, including gruesome deaths. This is a real deal for those who subscribe to primitive beliefs like Hun Sen.

Does Hun Sen really mean it when claiming his re-election is clean? Either he is hallucinating in his own reality, or he is a compulsive liar. Even his staunch supporters, like Chan Sophal, admit there are pressure and fear in the elections. Still, if the oath turned effective, Long’s wish for another 30 years of Hun Sen would not come true.

Ung Bun Ang

18viii18

Fake News You Can Use

Here is a mind-your-own-business warning CPP spokesman Sok Eysan issues to all foreigners. Yes, they all ought to keep their nose out of the stinky dump and take a hike with their duty-free concessional import policies for developing nations. They are interfering in Cambodia affairs and violating Cambodia’s sovereignty – as if it has one – for making negative comments and unreasonable demands on Hun Sen’s rule.

Except for China and Vietnam, of course.

Since Hun Sen’s Cambodia has already become an honourary conjoint China-Vietnam, it is not an interference in Cambodian state affairs for China-Vietnam to fund and run the, economy, resources, elections, and other stuffs.

Cambodian top brains are rewarded so well that they serve like well-oiled robots. After all, China and Vietnam have known for at least two hundred years that those brains, including the highly educated ones, are susceptible to lucrative offices and bribes.

« ជនបរទេសមិនគួរចេះឈឺឆ្អាលរឿងកម្ពុជាទេ គិតតែប្រទេសខ្លួនឯងទៅ។ »

អ្នកនាំពាក្យគណបក្សប្រជាជនកម្ពុជា សុខ ឥសាន ​ថ្ងៃទី​ ១០ ខែ​សីហា ឆ្នាំ​២០១៨  ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍

Your Support is Necessary

Sign and spread around the petition that calls for investigations by Australian authorities into criminal activities of the Cambodian elite in Australia. Join the force. Details are in the following link.

https://chn.ge/2Nl5u5H

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Dear Cambodian Professionals

“Was there cheating in the election on 29th July 2018 or not?”

Centre for Policy Studies Director Chan Sophal, 1 August 2018, Campro (Cambodian Professionals online network)

“… I personally collected the results of the election on 29th July 2018 from 82 polling stations in 6 schools in Phnom Penh. I simply used my phone to take snapshots of the result Form 1102 that was displayed on the outside polling station.”

Centre for Policy Studies Director Chan Sophal, 1 August 2018, Campro

“In my opinion based on this evidence, other anecdotes, I don't think there was cheating or cooking in this election.”

Centre for Policy Studies Director Chan Sophal, 1 August 2018, Campro

“It is important to bear in mind that the sample is not a representative one for Phnom Penh or Cambodia, but it is a large enough number of polling stations (82) in 6 schools, which can tell some meaningful statistics, I believe.”

Centre for Policy Studies Director Chan Sophal, 1 August 2018, Campro

“The key finding is that the result of this sample is not too different from the preliminary result published by NEC in terms of voter turnout rate (74% from the sample), invalid votes (15% from the sample), and the votes for CPP and other small parties.”

Centre for Policy Studies Director Chan Sophal, 1 August 2018, Campro

“This finding suggests to me that if any cheating or cooking it would not have happened at the level above the polling stations. There would be no need to cheat and change such already good results at the polling stations. So if any cheating, it would have happened at the polling stations, which I think is very very difficult to do.”

Centre for Policy Studies Director Chan Sophal, 1 August 2018, Campro

Director Chan Sophal poses a controversial question, does Hun Sen cheat in the recent elections?

In his scientific quest for the truth, the director who makes a living out of research work conducts a simple data collection. His sample size is 3.8% of all the 2,138 polling stations in Phnom Penh. He sprinkles over his research numbers “other anecdotes” though he does not specify the nature and extent of these additives. And then Voilà, Hun Sen does not cheat in Phnom Penh, and by the power of his statistical inference, anywhere. To justify this conclusion, he claims on CPP’s behalf that they do not need to cheat since they have done “tremendous work in both reforms and in pleasing their local constituencies”.

The director admits his sampling is not random. Any research professionals worth their salt know random sampling is a prerequisite for any statistically reliable and valid outcomes. He believes his sample size is large enough for “some meaningful statistics”. He does not say, however, if he calculates a confidence interval and level for his outcomes validity and reliability.

It is rather amusing the director seems excited to discover that his numbers and calculations are “not too different” from those of the NEC. He copies source numbers straight from the NEC’s published Form 1102; how could there be any material variance beyond calculation errors?

The director also believes – to support his conclusion that there is no cheating – any cheating at the poll stations will be “very very difficult to do”. No, it is not.

Here are some factors for the director who often claims to be logical to ponder if cheating is so difficult at poll stations. At every station in Phnom Penh, there are two CPP party agents making up a total of 72.6% of all party agents. Thirteen competing parties have none; six have a handful; they say they rely on the NEC’s integrity for a clean process; many are somewhat under CPP’s control or influence. All election officials are recruited by the NEC whose executive members are either CPP members or beneficiaries of a CPP patronage. Hence, a logical question is: are these minions stupid enough to deprive Hun Sen of what he wants – a high turnout that gives legitimacy of his next government? Indeed, it is inevitable they cheat; and it is up to them to sell it.

It remains unclear though why the director bastardises his sampling work. He may not have enough grasp of the technique complexity, or he just plays some 600 professionals on Campro network for a fool. Either way, the director clearly uses statistics like a drunk using a lamp post – for support rather than illumination.

It is hard to say whether the Campro professionals buy the director’s research method and conclusion. Most have held their cards close to their chest seldom saying anything at all online. Indeed, a few vocal ones will applaud them as they use the network mainly to go with the flow like a dead fish.

Ung Bun Ang

08viii18

Fake News You Can Trust

The following quote is an excerpt from a report in 1834 by Vietnamese General Troung Giang Ming to his emperor Minh Mang.

An opinion leader in the Campro network rebuts the quote pointing out his contemporaries are different from the Cambodian officials of 1834. He says they now have a much better brain with high education degrees up to PhD and beyond.

As it turns out, the only difference is that now with higher degrees of intelligence they also have developed a larger corrupt brain to deal with much bigger bribes their ancestors could never have dreamt of. They have been collectively validating General Troung research outcomes for 184 years and will likely continue do so until Vietnam completes its westward journey in Hun Sen’s peace and economic prosperity.

"After studying the [Cambodian] situation, we [Vietnamese] have decided that Cambodian officials only know how to bribe and be bribed. Offices are sold; nobody carries out orders; everyone works for his own account."

David Chandler (2008), A History of Cambodia, 4th Edition, Westview Press, Page 150

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It’s Time to Walk Off the Plank

Join others to break the Hun Sen’s lemming and walk off the plank. Over three million voters have.

Congratulations to those who have signed a petition calling for investigations by Australian authorities into illicit activities in Australia by Hun Sen’s minions who use Australia as their safe heaven. Their assumption that they are above the law in Australia – just like they are in Cambodia – must be put to test. You can ensure they take the test by sharing the petition among your peers and encouraging them to sign it. A reasonable support for the petition will move the Australian authorities to investigate and prosecute any criminals. It is possible then to have their travel visas to Australia banned, and their ill-gotten assets frozen. Here is the petition link.

https://chn.ge/2Nl5u5H

Another way of walking off the plank is to boycott the forthcoming elections. Boycotting is not illegal. Lawyer Choung Chu Ngi concludes, after examining relevant laws, that there is no legal obligation whatsoever to vote. Hun Sen is also very clear about this when he confirms in Sydney in March Cambodia has no compulsory voting system like Australia. Thus, you are free to vote or not to vote.

Furthermore, the lawyer says there is no law stipulating that appealing – or inciting as Hun Sen prefers to hyperbolise it – someone not to vote is illegal; it is because not voting is not unlawful. He gives an example to illustrate the point. As loving someone is not illegal, leading someone to fall in love is not unlawful. Hence, you are free to appeal or lead others not to vote.

If Hun Sen managed – without rigging the elections numbers – to achieve a turnout rate that is anywhere near the average of all election turnouts of 76.6% since 1993, he would never lift his foot off your throat. A source in Hun Sen’s inner circle claims that there could be no more elections of any kind after 2018. Cambodia is becoming a colony under a shared patronage of China and Vietnam. Just look at a sample development in Sihanoukville and border provinces with Vietnam. There is little, if any, effort to counter the progress in those areas to mitigate a national destruction. Hun Sen is paying off heavy debts to the two patrons.

Your boycott will starve Hun Sen of legitimacy oxygen he desperately needs. A massive boycott would disable his corrupt rule. The bigger the boycott the bigger the risk will be for him.

The worst measure Hun Sen could take in response is to prosecute and persecute the boycotters. If a popular backlash is a huge revolt, even his loyal dirty-dozen generals and Chinese guns will not stop it. His son Many’s world record scarf of over 1,000 metres long may come in handy, but may not be long enough, to wipe all his and the minions’ tears and rear ends.

You may have a hundred reasons to be apprehensive, but join the boycott anyway and let Hun Sen fall off the cliff.

Ung Bun Ang

24vii18

Fake News You Can Trust

Khieu Sopheak is right the people are not scared of the troop movements that have been flexing their muscles around the country. It is Hun Sen who is anxious while going through a nightmare of being haunted by the CNRP ghost.

It is nerve-wrecking for Hun Sen because based on recent elections outcomes he is no longer certain that 100% of his troops will not turn their guns towards him and his top commanders. After all, 50% of voters have shown they have enough with him, and he himself has just removed three of his once-trusted generals from gun-related top jobs. He conjures up an imminent showdown with the CNRP ghost. Stay tuned.

“None of the people are scare. It is typical for the nation’s police forces to train… It is also typical for that opposition party to make excuses and accusations.”

Interior Ministry spokesman Khieu Sopheak, 18 July 2018, The Phnom Penh Post

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What Would Kem Ley Do?

“Will the opposition party exist to compete in 2017 and 2018? Hard to say.”

Analyst Kem Ley, Collection of Thoughts on Society and Politics, 2016, page 83.

“Quality health services need a revolution – not reforms.”

Analyst Kem Ley, Collection of Thoughts on Society and Politics, 2016, page 122.

“In the 2017 and 2018 games, they (CPP) may have no good fortune to win, unless they field good players, allow them freedom to use their skill, and make use of capability of players they buy from advanced countries.”

Analyst Kem Ley, Collection of Thoughts on Society and Politics, 2016, page 226.

“There is no rule of law in Cambodia.”

Analyst Kem Ley, Collection of Thoughts on Society and Politics, 2016, page 232.

“Cambodia must change the leader…”

Analyst Kem Ley, Collection of Thoughts on Society and Politics, 2016, page 262.

There is a tug-of-war between the two major parties in the forthcoming elections, even though one of them is legally dead. Both are in unchartered territories – doing what they have not done before. The CPP throw in carrot and stick to get voters to vote; they used to deter from voting those they suspect are opposition voters. At the other end, the CNRP “ghost” calls for an election boycott, which is its first.

It may not be intriguing that Kem Ley was not so confident the CNRP would partake in both the 2017 commune and 2018 national elections. His book, “Collection of Thoughts on Society and Politics”, published after his 10 July 2016 assassination, reveals critical reasons behind his doubt that the CNRP will last the two elections. In the book of 322 pages, positive ideas are in no less than 250 pages. For every critical issue Kem Ley offers solutions and recommendations. In some instances, like healthcare issues, he argues they need a revolution – reforms will no longer suffice. The book deals with necessary government reforms that seasoned analysts would conclude the Hun Sen government has neither desire nor audacity to carry them out. However, using a soccer game as a metaphor, Kem Ley argues the CPP could still win at fair and free elections if they made appropriate uses their resources and players’ skills.

But they don’t. And Kem Ley must sense it.

Hun Sen opts for a quick fix after the CNRP scares the pants off him at the commune elections. Though it does not win, it manages to make a deep inroad into the CPP regional power base. The elections outcomes confirm a conclusion by a Shaviv opinion poll commissioned by Hun Sen in October 2016 that, without drastic interventions, the CPP would lose the 2018 national elections. These interventions turn out to be: dissolution of the CNRP and making their leaders national traitors. Kem Ley’s doubt on the CNRP’s chance to contest the national elections is confirmed.

It is disbelieving that Kem Ley would support the upcoming elections – the kind that has already confirmed the status quo and goes against his entire thesis. He calls for a rule of law and change of leader. The whole book addresses issues that Kem Ley believes are vital for a national survival. He argues Cambodia is at risk of becoming the second Khmer Krom. He points out Cambodians are killing each other on the street. He notes a meltdown of regional family structures as citizens are compelled to move away from farms for work in cities and foreign lands. His extensive stays with grassroot people confirm they are suffering. The upcoming elections have no chance of bringing what Kem Ley longs for – a real change.

The book indicates Kem ley would campaign for the election boycott; and he would likely be assassinated for the second time. Then again, he is ready anytime to make the ultimate sacrifice for his nation while calling for his compatriots to stand up.

Ung Bun Ang

10vii18

Fake News You Can Trust

It is incredible how callous Hun Sen can be. He asks voters if they should embrace in bed a dead party or choose another party they love. A real-life example he cites is that a surviving spouse, no matter how old they are, will look for another partner. Mrs Bun Rany Hun Sen, take note and feel the pain or the freedom.

Anyhow, Hun Sen is a dead psychopath; he ignores the fact that he is the one who kills their beloved spouse or party and expects them to help him out.

«​មាន​ការប៉ុនប៉ង​បំផ្លាញ​ការបោះឆ្នោត​តាមរយៈ​អំពាវនាវ​ឲ្យ​ពលរដ្ឋ​កុំ​ទៅ​បោះឆ្នោត ក៏​ប៉ុន្តែ​ប្រហែល​​ជា​មិន​អាច​ទៅរួច​ទេ ប្រជាពលរដ្ឋ​របស់​យើង​ [​ត្រូវ​] ​ប្រើប្រាស់​សិទ្ធិ​...​ បក្ស​មួយ​បាន​ងាប់​ទៅ​តើ​​ដេក​ឱប​អាបក្ស​ងាប់​ហ្នឹង​ទេ ឬ​​ក៏​ត្រូវ​ប្រើ​សិទ្ធិ​នយោបាយ សិទ្ធិ​របស់​ខ្លួន​ដើម្បី​ទៅ​ជ្រើសរើស​បក្សនយោបាយ​ណា​មួយ​ដែល​ខ្លួន​ស្រឡាញ់​ទេ។​»​

នាយក​រដ្ឋមន្ត្រី​ ហ៊ុន សែន ថ្ងៃ​ទី២១ មិថុនា ឆ្នាំ ២០១៨ ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍​ 

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Hun Sen Shirtfronted

 Hun Sen visits Phnom Penh Safari where his jungle law & rules are challenged

No-fear-or-favour media report that Hun Sen, virtually flanked by his dozen dirty generals, is shirtfronted by a jungle Champ during his visit to the Phnom Penh Safari. The Champ has told the media that the Hun Sen’s jungle law is so legalistic that he is keen to test its justice.

The said-media do not report outcomes of the Champ’s charge into Hun Sen’s chest. They have been forced to either close or sell off to a with-fear-and-favour media group.

It seems however, Hun Sen has survived the shirtfront. A few days after Safari visit he rants and raves about the jungle challenge, and vows not to react any longer to any provocations even from tiny parties in the 29 July elections.

And on Hun Sen’s order, the Champ is arrested, charged, and jailed; they throw away the key.

Ung Bun Ang

30vi18

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Pseng-Pseng in Cartoon

18vi18

Hun Sen’s Cane Shares

Image courtesy of Michael Leunig

Another voter has just been arrested for an alleged violation of a new lèse-majesté law Hun Sen made up a few months ago. It seems the cane shares have begun with ridiculing the King whom Hun Sen has brought to heel and is likely to extent to those who are running campaigns, like the Clean Fingers Campaign, to boycott the July elections against the King’s wishes.

When shared by half of eligible voters, the cane shares will not be so hurting, if not so honourable and privileged. There will not be much more any sensible leaders can do, but to surrender to the will of the people after the cane shares.

Nothing can un-nerve any tyrants like half of the voters taking the cane shares. Those tyrants like Pol Pot and Hun Sen pretend to be strong but are surrounded themselves with loosely worded-laws, rules, and edicts that sound just, but allow their interpretations at will to persecute anyone – mainly to calm down their own nerves.

Still, Hun Sen is increasingly nervous. He and his minions threaten others with lawsuits and wild legal interpretations almost daily leading up to the July elections. The crack in his circle is widening. He no longer places his fate on top generals Kun Kim, Pol Saroeun, and Meas Sophea whom he once used to trust. He sends them to the National Assembly that carries neither guns nor practical power. Swift responses by his minions to the US sanctions against his for-now-faithful body guard General Hing Bun Hieng have been over the top, particularly when the general claims the US sanctions miss the target as he has no assets abroad to be frozen and that he has no desire to travel to the US. Even if he is not lying, the pugnacious reactions from himself and various government quarters indicate the sanctions shake the Hun Sen’s close circle far beyond the one general. Hun Sen and his close minions must feel the heat and he is likely to retire more armed generals, which in turn grows further panic and resentment to his rule.

Anyhow, Hun Sen cannot, at least for now, afford to lift his foot off the voters’ throat. Like Pol Pot, he awaits a people’s revolt to do so.

Ung Bun Ang

18vi18

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Pseng-Pseng in Cartoon

1vi18

Hun Sen’s Democracy Lockdown

Image courtesy of Michael Leunig

Pseng-Pseng Says:

·        If great democracy lockdowns last three or four hours, Hun Sen is attempting the greatest of all time. His has already been a few months and is likely to continue indefinitely.

·        Yes, a full-blown lockdown will make Hun Sen’s democracy the most beautiful sight with peace and tranquillity like a graveyard.

·        It has been so peaceful and tranquil that Hun Sen will choose to forget giving an all-clear signal. Would the citizens then ever give themselves the all-clear?

Ung Bun Ang

1vi18

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Hun Sen Under Mounting Pressures

“The official press agency of the Chinese Communist Party on Wednesday published an article that rebukes the government of Prime Minister Hun Sen for failing to deal with political unrest in Cambodia and calls for ‘serious and deep reforms’ in the country over the next five years. The Xinhua News Agency, whose output is tightly controlled by China’s government, notes the discord in Cambodia since the ‘disputed general election’ on July 28 and cites a number of political analysts in the country calling on Mr. Hun Sen to act swiftly ‘to restore his popularity’.”

Reporters Alex Willemyns and Mech Dara, 6 December 2013, The Cambodia Daily

“Respect of human rights and fundamental freedoms is part of the EU’s trade policy and underpins the legal basis of our trade preferences.”

European Commission Vice President (Foreign Affairs) Federica Mogherini, 1 May 2018, The Phnom Penh Post

“The Cambodia Democracy Act of 2018 will push back against the Hun Sen regime’s undermining of democracy and related human rights abuses by applying financial sanctions to the figures who carry out this despicable agenda and codifying the Administration’s existing visa restrictions for these individuals.”

US Congressman Ted Yoho, 15 May 2018, The Phnom Penh Post

According to a CPP inner circle source, Hun Sen is worried sick about three main intertwined issues: China’s support, legitimacy of his new government, and the CPP’s internal uneasiness with his rule.

He doubts if China’s support is set in stone. China has a record of dropping their once-proclaimed and glorified allies like a hot potato for its best interest when necessary. Sihanouk and Pol Pot potatoes immediately come to mind.

The current China’s support is not without any conditions. Besides a laissez-faire control of economic activities in certain logistic parts of Cambodia Hun Sen has given his benefactor, China still expects Hun Sen to lift his game after the CPP 2013 elections disaster. The 2017 commune elections that see the CNRP consolidating its 2013 inroad into the CPP heartland prove to China that Hun Sen has failed in the four preceding years of government. Though Hun Sen now denies outright any political unrests, China may not buy it; he may just become another hot potato.

Hence, how would Hun Sen now convince China of his popularity and being in control? He has not instituted any serious and deep reforms in the past five years as China calls for. How can he, when he has built his power base upon a corrupt status quo? He could now go for a façade of control and popularity – the legitimacy of his next government, which depends on the July elections process and outcomes. He needs a high voter turnout and an absence of sanctions by the West.

However, Hun Sen is likely to fail. The opposition may intensify their call for the elections boycott and double up their lobby effort for the US and EU sanctions. A dedicated EU mission to Phnom Penh next month for a review of their tariff-free imports from Cambodia can only raise Hun Sen’s blood pressure as they link respect of human rights and fundamental freedom to their trade policy. A bill introduced in the US Congress to impose financial sanctions and travel bans could unsettle the nerves of Hun Sen’s significant minions. The upcoming second anniversary of the Kem Ley assassination on 10 July – it is so close to the 29 July elections – can only flare up a popular conviction that Hun Sen is a mastermind.

With such intense pressures hanging over his head, Hun Sen’s actions have also been greeted with great dismay within the CPP, which is emphatically manifested in the 2013 and 2017 elections. Even in metropolitan electorates where live many CPP stalwarts, their votes e.g. in Toul Kouk go to the CNRP in droves. The unexpected losses make Hun Sen so apprehensive that he trusts none besides his family members. He will likely settle the score with those disloyal minions if he ever survives the mounting pressures.

Yet, Hun Sen may not survive, unless he redefines his brand of democracy and human rights, or the opposition’s call for the election boycott and their US and EU lobby efforts are ineffective and fizzle out.

Ung Bun Ang

22v18

By the Way

So according to Hun Sen, his brand of true democracy is more advanced than those in the EU and the US. His yardstick for the claim is refreshing. He says their voter turnouts are around 30% and 40% respectively, which is below the Cambodia’s turnout of 69%. If Hun Sen uses the turnout of 86% in the 2017 commune elections, his brand of true democracy will be far more advanced than those two democracies. Who is he trying to kid, if not himself?

Then again, he may just be setting it up for an easier run for himself in the July elections after blocking his only formidable opponent from the elections. If he can manage between 30% and 40%, he will claim his democracy will be as true and good as that of the EU and the US. Pray the EU and the US buy in their review of trade policy and individualised sanctions.

“បើយើងប្រៀបធៀបភាគរយនៃការចូលរួមបោះឆ្នោតពីសំណាក់ប្រជាពលរដ្ឋរវាងប្រទេសកម្ពុជា និងសហគមន៍អ៊ឺរ៉ុប និងសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិក គឺអ៊ឺរ៉ុបមានប្រជាពលរដ្ឋទៅបោះឆ្នោតក្នុងរង្វង់ ៣០% ក៏អាចទទួលយកបាន រីឯសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិកគឺមានពលរដ្ឋទៅបោះឆ្នោតតែក្នុងរង្វង់៤០%ប៉ុណ្ណោះ។ ប៉ុន្តែចំពោះកម្ពុជា គឺមានពលរដ្ឋជាង៦៩%ទៅបោះឆ្នោត។ នេះគឺបង្ហាញច្បាស់អំពីការរីកចម្រើននៃលទ្ឋិប្រជាធិបតេយ្យពិតប្រាកដនៅក្នុងប្រទេសយើង មិនដូចការបកស្រាយដោយជនអគតិមួយចំនួនឡើយ។”

នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុន សែន ថ្ងៃ​ទី១៦ ខែ​ឧសភា ឆ្នាំ​២០១៨ ​ ទំព័រ​ហ្វេសប៊ុក ហ៊ុន សែន

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How Sam Rainsy Might Help Build Hun Sen’s Legacy

“Kem Sokha is still the party president. So, what [Rainsy] appeals, even if it benefits the CNRP, it opposes the CNRP’s spirit because he is making decisions instead of the CNRP. It violates our rights.”

Former CNRP official Ou Chanrath, 30 April 2018, The Phnom Penh Post

“I compare the party which has been pushed to join the fake election to an ahp [an evil spirit with a head but no body] party.”

CNRM President Sam Rainsy, 2 May 2018, The Phnom Penh Post

“Our parties [Khmer Will Party and Our Motherland Party] condemn the irresponsible act for slandering and degrading political rights and the rights of the people. We, politicians and Cambodian people, completely refute Sam Rainsy’s activities.”

Khmer Will Party President Kong Monika and Our Motherland Party President Chan Bunhorn, 4 May 2018, Khmer

A leaked information is that Hun Sen has been working on Kem Sokha persuading him to accept a much-better-life offer: out of prison and millions in cash. This, indeed, comes with certain conditions: a clear dissociation with Sam Rainsy and participation in the July elections with his former Human Right Party. So far, the source says Kem Sokha refuses.

The offer is similar to the one Nhek Bun Chhay has accepted and is now out of jail. While the cash incentive is unknown, Nhek Bun Chhay will take his party to the forthcoming elections.

The source claims that Hun Sen has not yet given up on Kem Sokha. It reveals that, according to an opinion poll by a US research group commissioned by Hun Manet, the dissolved CNRP has won a substantial public sympathy for Kem Sokha, and more so for Sam Rainsy. Thus, Hun Sen’s focus is to break up the alliance of the two and get at least one of them to the elections for the sake of his next government legitimacy.

So, for how long will Kem Sokha resist the Hun Sen carrot? What might break his resolve?

Hun Sen is confident Kem Sokha will take the carrot as the alliance has been wobbling; he must thank for it Sam Rainsy’s propensity to take autocratic impulsive actions. First, a rift emerges when Sam Rainsy creates CNR Movement without any consultation with Kem Sokha, who quickly refuses to endorse it. Sam Rainsy responses by denigrating the objection.

Second, Sam Rainsy declares an official elections boycott on behalf of the CNRP as if he is still in charge. Kem Sokha’s faction in the Party promptly and emphatically dismisses his authority to speak for them. The recent first meeting of the CNRP executives, five months after the dissolution, does not support the boycott call. Spokesman Nhem Panharith says they may leave it to their supporters to decide whether they will vote. Kem Sokha must not be too impressed with the overbearing past president.

Third, Kem Sokha may not agree with Sam Rainsy’s attack on minor and new parties, especially the Khmer Will Party (KWP) that has emerged from a group of their former ardent colleagues. The attack has backfired; the KWP responds with an outright condemnation of the boycott call. The CNRP executives spokesman makes no mention of the minor parties.

It seems Sam Rainsy’s remote control of the CNRP has broken, which may become a source of frustrations for any autocrat. A persistent frustration can only lead to further errors of judgement that can push Kem Sokha to succumb to the lure of Hun Sen’s comfortable life offer.

Will Sam Rainsy’s solo performance be enough for Kem Sokha to retire? Will Sam Rainsy continue to act as though he is still in control of CNRP? If the answer is yes to any of the questions, Sam Rainsy’s comfortable lifestyle in Paris will be permanent. His political legacy will be the one that makes a greater legacy for Hun Sen.

Ung Bun Ang

9v18

By the Way

Well, it is indeed a piece of great news for those who study medicine in Vietnam. Hun Sen now accredits their Vietnamse degree which means they are no longer required to pass qualification exams to practice in Cambodia. After all, they say the six-year medical schooling in Vietnam is just a good as the eight years at local universities.

Hun Sen knows how good the Cambodian medical schools are. He always prefers overseas medical services for his needs even routine check-ups. He is too kind to say the eight-year term that students slug away at local medical schools means they are too slow in the uptake when others can do in six outside the border.

There is a tiny puzzle, though. Now that Cambodia recognises the Vietnamese medical degree, will Vietnam reciprocate and accredit the Cambodian’s? It is doubtful if Hun Sen dares raise the issue with his neighbour believing that the Cambodian schools are not up to scratch.

“We are very happy that the Health Ministry [after Hun Sen’s instruction] accepted our complaints… The Ministry has decided that studying six years of general medical practice in Vietnam is equivalent to studying medicine for eight years in Cambodia.”

Vietnam medical school student Cheb Vandara, 7 May 2018, Khmer Times

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Happy New Year

How Hun Sen Secures New Government Legitimacy

«អត្រានៃការចូលរួមបោះឆ្នោត ទោះជាមិនដល់៣០ភាគរយក៏ដោយ អត់មានសិទ្ធិបដិសេធទេ។ អ៊ីចឹង ច្បាប់ស្រុកយើងទាំងរដ្ឋធម្មនុញ្ញមិនមានចែងពាក់ព័ន្ធនឹងរឿងហ្នឹងទេ។»

ប្រធានគណៈកម្មាធិការជាតិរៀបចំការបោះឆ្នោត ស៊ិក ប៊ុនហុក ​ថ្ងៃ​ទី​១១ ខែ​មេសា ២០១៨  ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍​ 

អ៊ីចឹង​ហើយ​បើ​ការបោះឆ្នោត​នោះ មិន​មាន​ការ​ចូលរួម​ពី​គណបក្ស​សង្គ្រោះជាតិ​ទេ ខ្ញុំ​សូម​អំពាវនាវ​ឱ្យ​ប្រជាពលរដ្ឋ​ខ្មែរ កុំ​ចូលរួម​នៅ​ក្នុង​ការបោះឆ្នោត សូម​ធ្វើ​ពហិការ​ការបោះឆ្នោត​នោះ ហើយ​សូម​អំពាវនាវ​ឱ្យ​អ្នកសង្កេតការណ៍​ទាំង​ជាតិ និង​អន្តរជាតិ កុំ​ទៅ​ចូល​សង្កេតការណ៍​អី ព្រោះ​វា​គ្មាន​បានការ​អ្វី​នោះ​ទេ​ចំពោះ​ការសង្កេត​ការណ៍​បោះឆ្នោត​ដែល​គេ​ដឹង​លទ្ធផល​មុន​ថ្ងៃ​បោះឆ្នោត​ទៅទៀត ទៅ​សង្កេតការណ៍​គ្រាន់តែ​ប្រថាប់ត្រា​ទទួលស្គាល់​ការបោះឆ្នោត​ទេ។ សូម​កុំ​ទទួលស្គាល់​ការបោះឆ្នោត​លេងសើច​បែបនេះ»។

អតីត​ប្រធាន​គណបក្ស​សង្គ្រោះ​ជាតិ លោក សម រង្ស៊ី  ថ្ងៃទី ៩ មេសា​ ២០១៨  អាស៊ីសេរី

“ចំណុចដែលពាក់ព័ន្ធទៅនឹងប្រព័ន្ធបោះឆ្នោត... គណបក្សប្រជាជនមិនជំទាស់ទេ នៅពេលដែលឧកាសបានហុចមកដល់ ហើយប្រព័ន្ធបោះឆ្នោតវាសមស្រប ដើម្បីឲ្យយើងប្រើប្រាស់សិទ្ធិរបស់ពលរដ្ឋនៅក្រៅប្រទេស ប៉ុន្ដែត្រូវមានលក្ខខ័ណ្ឌច្បាប់របស់វាច្បាស់លាស់អំពីបញ្ហានេះ។”

នាយក​រដ្ឋមន្ត្រី​ហ៊ុនសែន ថ្ងៃទី ១៦​ មិនា​ ២០១៨ ទូរទស្សន៍អប្សារា 

Amid calls for the July elections boycott, the NEC Chairman is right that even less than 30% (maybe zero) voter turnout will still be legal. Everything in Cambodia is so legalistic that it puts the rest of world to shame.

It may be legal, but Hun Sen knows a low turnout will put a huge question mark over his next government. Only those who have rocks in their head will ever doubt whether Hun Sen will win the July elections. Given the 86% turnout for the 2017 commune elections, which can be one of the legitimacy benchmarks, Hun Sen must realise he has an uphill legitimacy battle on his hand. It will be an incredible legacy if he can succeed here after decimating a formidable opposition.

Hence, the main challenge for Hun Sen now is to secure a high voter turnout. He has done his almost to ramp it up. His frequent rants to garment workers and new graduates have intensified and are unlikely to fizzle out between now and the elections. Never mind if factory owners cannot be impressed with extensive down-times when their workers are at Hun Sen’s monologues.

And he has two more options. One is to resuscitate the CNRP for the elections. Hun Sen will need to work out an optimum timing for them to come in – not so soon that they can cause irritations, not so late that they will make no difference to the legitimacy. This option is easy because the opposition is ready to be sucked in. Sam Rainsy boasts he will need only one day before the elections to beat Hun Sen. Yet, he has not revealed a practical power grab strategy after his elections victory; he must be either ingenious in strategic planning, or naïve to expect Hun Sen to just walk away from power.

Another major option is to allow voting by more than a million migrant workers and overseas Cambodians whose voting rights are already enshrined in the Constitution. With all pork-barrelling he has showered local garment workers and a planned minimum wage system for all, the migrant workers can, not only vote, but vote for him as well. Moreover, the overseas Cambodians who are keen voters can also boost the turnout. If Hun Sen is right that 90% of them are his supporters, it will be another win-win for him.

Anyhow, Hun Sen has already discarded these two groups of potential turnout enhancers saying they cannot vote because of the current election laws and technicality. He might want to reconsider if these were the problems. He must know his minions in the three branches of government will piss in whatever direction he tells them to. Legal and technical hindrances have not stopped him, for instance, from dissolving his formidable opponent and re-allocating their parliamentary and commune seats to his party and elections losers.

Still, the easiest option for Hun Sen is to let CNRP help for a higher turnout in the July elections that he has already won.

Ung Bun Ang

15iv18

By the Way

Now it is clear why CNRP’s recent requests for a negotiation with Hun Sen end in failure every time. They have no idea what they have that they can force Hun Sen’s hand.

CNRP stalwart and CNRM co-founder Eng Chhai Eang is dead right that every conflict ends only with negotiations. He is dead right again that successful negotiations require concessions from all conflicting parties – sort of gives and takes.

However, when asked what CNRP can offer as concessions in a negotiation with Hun Sen, Eng Chhai Eang says they have nothing – they are just a victim suffering from Hun Sen’s wrong doings. It is not clear whether the co-founder understands his own statements on the art of negotiations and conflict resolutions.

But they are lucky that Hun Sen is smarter and may decide they can be of service to him, again. This time will be to help legitimise his new government after the July elections. And it is possible that they will dive head first into an empty pool when Hun Sen invites them to the elections they are going to lose.

“[​ក្នុង​ការ​ចរចា ​ដើម្បី​បញ្ចប់​ជម្លោះ​នេះ] យើងត្រូវតែឈរនៅលើគោលការណ៍មួយ គឺគោរពគ្នា ឲ្យតម្លៃគ្នា ហើយយើងអាចធ្វើសម្បទានគ្នាទៅវិញទៅមក ដើម្បីផល ប្រយោជន៍ជាតិ និងផលប្រយោជន៍ប្រជារាស្រ្ដខ្មែរ... គណបក្សប្រឆាំងអត់មាន សម្បទានអីទេ ព្រោះគណបក្ស ប្រឆាំងជាគណបក្សប្រឆាំង ដែលរងគ្រោះ រងគ្រោះ ដោយសារគណបក្សកាន់ អំណាចរំលោភបំពាន ព្រោះយើងអត់មានអីខុសទេ។”

​អ្នក​ដឹក​នាំចលនាសង្គ្រោះជាតិ អេងឆៃអ៊ាង  ថ្ងៃទី៤ មេសា​២០១៨  វិទ្យុបារាំងអន្ដរជាតិ

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