Monday, 11 December 2017

Hun Sen’s Colour Revolution Illusion May Come True

“… the Secretary of State will restrict entry into the United States of those individuals involved in undermining democracy in Cambodia. In certain circumstances, family members of those individuals will also be subject to visa restrictions.”

US Department of State spokesperson Heather Nauert, Press Statement, 6 December 2017

“Banning visas will not make people in Cambodia die by having their children not [being allowed to] visit there. They can visit their parents [here] – there is no problem.”

CPP Spokesman Sok Eysan, 8 December 2017, The Phnom Penh Post

«យ៉ាង​ណា​វា​ប៉ះពាល់​សតិ​អារម្មណ៍​ដែរ សូម​សហរដ្ឋអាមេរិក​មេត្តា​ពិចារណា​ផង ព្រោះ​ថា​ប្រទេស​តូច​កុំ​ថា​ឡើយ​កម្ពុជា​ដល់​ទៅ​អាវុធ​នុយក្លេអ៊ែរ សូម្បី​អាវុធ​ប៉ុន​កូន​ដៃ​ក៏​គ្មាន​ដែរ។ សូម​ឲ្យ​លោក​ជា​មហាយក្ស​សូម​ឲ្យ​ជួយ​ពិនិត្យ​មើល និង​សូម​ឲ្យ​ប្រទេស​កម្ពុជា​ដែល​ជា​ប្រទេស​តូច​មួយ​ហ្នឹង​រស់​បាន​ដោយ​សុខ​សន្តិភាព​ផង។»

អ្នក​នាំ​ពាក្យ​គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជន​កម្ពុជា សុខ ឥសាន ថ្ងៃ​ទី​១០ ខែ​មីនា ឆ្នាំ​២០១៦ វិទ្យុ​អាស៊ីសេរី

Hun Sen finally tones down his rhetoric against the US when a limited US sanction hits the CPP’s raw nerves. He now agrees to again accept deported Cambodian ex-criminals from the US because of the visa restriction the US has imposed on Ministry of Foreign Affairs top officials. Rather than lifting it as a reward for the backdown, the US up the ante, extending the restriction to those who undermine Cambodian democracy, and their families.

The expanded sanction makes the CPP’s head spin. Initially, Sok Eysan sees no problems. He is right though that the visa restriction will not kill Cambodians. Most do not have enough to send their children for education or buy real estates in the US. Indeed, only children of those who can afford can visit their parents in Cambodia to circumvent the sanction.

On second thought forty-eight hours later, Eysan realises those children may not be allowed back to the US after the visit to their parents who are in the sanction list. He whines, and begs for a US reconsideration. He becomes delusional when he infers that the sanction is due to nuclear weaponry he claims the CPP do not have.

The US will not reveal the list. Hun Sen would certainly want to know who are, or are not, in it to confirm or disprove any doubt he may ever have on loyalty of any of his minions.

Meanwhile, this becomes a real predicament for his fawning dependants: to be or not to be in the list. Being in it proves to Hun Sen their loyalty and service effectiveness; but it also means they are putting at risks their wealth and their children overseas. If they are not in, however, they will arouse, or confirm, Hun Sen’s suspicion on their loyalty.

They may not have any choice though when the sanction drags on. Hun Sen will know whose visa applications are being rejected, and who have not travelled to the US as often as they used to.

To rein Hun Sen in, nevertheless, visa bans from other countries that are preferred destinations of his minions’ wealth may be necessary. Furthermore, an ultimate effectiveness is a freeze on their assets abroad. It is impossible for them to justify their ill-gotten wealth with their legitimate incomes under those foreign jurisdictions’ anti-money laundering and corruption laws.

Impacts of such targeted sanctions on the Hun Sen’s rule will be huge, leaving the general population largely untouched. The rule lasts so far mainly because of his support base consisting of intellectuals and armed officers who carry out his orders so diligently. The surgical sanctions inflict damages only on the support base’s private interests, which must be severe enough to embolden a political defiance within. This means they could inconspicuously execute orders that will damage the democracy with less effectiveness. They could also make Hun Sen’s illusion a reality – a colour revolution.

Many of Hun Sen’s wishes have come through with flying colours, and a colour revolution could be next.

Ung Bun Ang

By The Way

According to the following gangster-like language, Hun Sen, who boasts he has eyes like pineapple’s, does not really have everything in the CPP under his control. Someone in his support base that closely monitors his opponents’ activities fails either to discover the 29 November plot Hun Sen claims to overthrow his regime, or to inform him about it. Why?

Maybe they do not want him to murder more than what he does on Veng Sreng Street. Maybe there is no such plot. Maybe it is only a Hun Sen’s hallucination.

Whatever the reasons, his support base can also be his Achilles’ heel. This is particularly so when this support base is driven by their personal interest and wealth stashed overseas.

បើខ្ញុំដឹងរឿងហ្នឹង តាំងពីណុង ប្រហែលជាចុងឆ្នាំ២០១៣ និងដើមឆ្នាំ២០១៤ គឺពួក
នេះងាប់អស់ហើយ ងាប់អស់ហើយ។ គេកំណត់យកថ្ងៃទី២៩ ខែធ្នូ ២០១៣ ជាថ្ងៃផ្ដាច់
ព្រ័ត្ររំលំយើង។ បើខ្ញុំឃើញពីពេលណុងនោះណា៎ អ្នកទាំងនោះងាប់តាំងពីណុង ពេល
នេះជាពេលបុណ្យខ្មោចពួកហ្នឹងទៀត ស្ដាយណាស់។ សំណាង ដែលខ្ញុំអត់បានមើល
ឃើញ បើសិនបានមើល……  ថ្ងៃដែលគេប្រកាសណុង ប៉ុន្មានម៉ោងក្រោយ គឺវ៉ៃសង្គ្រប់

នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រីហ៊ុនសែន  ថ្ងៃទី ១៩ វិច្ឆិកា​  ២០១៧   ​ វិទ្យុអាស៊ីសេរី

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