Hun Sen Gets It Ready

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“He [Hun Sen] started this dialogue a few years ago but he just didn't believe in it. It's not his style. Monologue is his style. And it was Sihanouk’s style, and Jayavarman VII’s style. Those guys don’t do dialogue.”

Monash Emeritus Professor David Chandler, 16 May 2016, Voice of America

«សម័យ​នេះ​គេ​សប្បាយ​ណាស់។ កាល​ពី​សម័យ​ខ្ញុំ ទើប​វា​ពិបាក អាយុ ៨​ឆ្នាំ សង្គ្រាម​កើត​ឡើង ត្រូវ​បង្ខំ​ចិត្ត​ធ្វើ​ទាហាន របួស ៥​ដង ខូច​ភ្នែក​ម្តង។ ត្រង់​ហ្នឹង​ហើយ​ដែល​ខ្ញុំ​មិន​បណ្តោយ​ឲ្យ​ជន​ណា​ក៏ដោយ ទោះ​បី​អាសិរពិស​ប៉ុនណា​ក៏ដោយ បំផ្លាញ​នូវ​សន្តិភាព​ដែល​យើង​រក​បាន​ទាំង​លំបាក។ អត់​អនុញ្ញាត​ទេ។ តម្លៃ​ណា​ក៏ដោយ​ដែល​ត្រូវ​បង់ គឺ​បង់​ថ្លៃ​ដើម្បី​ការពារ​សន្តិភាព បង់​ថ្លៃ​ដើម្បី​ការ​អភិវឌ្ឍ បង់​ថ្លៃ​ដើម្បី​ការ​រីក​ចម្រើន​នៃ​ប្រជាពលរដ្ឋ​កម្ពុជា គ្រប់ៗ​រូប»។

លោក​នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុន សែន ៧ ខែ​មិថុនា ឆ្នាំ​២០១៦ វិទ្យុ​អាស៊ីសេរី 

“អ្នកឯងចង់ទៅដេកកន្លែង៤ម៉ែត្រ៤ជ្រុង ទៅដេកទៅ។ គ្មានអាណាគេថាអី។”

លោក​នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុន សែន ៧ ខែ​មិថុនា ឆ្នាំ​២០១៦ ខេមបូឌា ដេលី

“Just use violence, get people scared, and that’s what Hun Sen has done. But I think he’s scary… I’m never going to say on your program or anywhere else that Hun Sen should be overthrown by force, but he is not going to be overthrown any other way.”

Monash Emeritus Professor David Chandler, 16 May 2016, Voice of America

“We can call it a hotel or detention centre. The prisoners and the families who have money, they can [pay] rent and stay there.”

Deputy Prime Minister & Interior Minister Sar Kheng, 29 March 2016, The Phnom Penh Post

“We can rent [luxury facilities] to those who have money… They [the criminals] are used to living in good conditions and they may want to continue living in good conditions. So they have that option.”

Spokesman for the Interior Ministry’s General Department of Prisons, Nuth Savna, 29 March 2016, The Phnom Penh Post

Premier Hun Sen has three major options to deal with the current challenge to his power: talking with his opponents, keeping Kem Sokha holed up, and storming the CNRP headquarters to arrest the man.

The talk option sounds sublime, though both do not even agree if there is a crisis. Nevertheless, a successful talk may result in more family dinners and new glorified titles for all concerned. There are numerous would-be unpalatable compromises, bitter past experiences, and enormous egos that need constant massaging, keeping the culture of dialogue dormant. And Chandler is convinced that these “guys don’t do dialogue”.

Letting Kem Sokha coop up in the headquarters is not viable beyond short term. Though the premier says nobody cares about Kem Sokha being trapped there, he does – he would look powerless. Court cases and summons are being piled up, and all would become a joke unless Kem Sokha is forced to face the music. For a regime that takes so much pride in its own brand rule of law, such blatant resistance is intolerable. Hun Sen must choose soon what he respects – his rule of law, or Kem Sokha’s defiance; otherwise, even his supporters will see that he is indecisive and not as powerful as he wants them to think.

Hence, the storming choice becomes increasingly attractive. This will show Hun Sen’s raw power – that he is in control. There will be clashes that may prove bloody for those who honour their vow to stand between guns and Kem Sokha. Yet, Hun Sen says he will foot “any costs” to protect what he calls his hard-won peace and development from threats his opponents like Kem Sokha represent.

There are two possible outcomes from this option. If the armed forces can overcome Kem Sokha’s devout supporters, Kem Sokha will be thrown in jail. It may be a bit rough for him to move from what Hun Sen describes as a four-metre-by-four-metre space in the CNRP premises to an overcrowded cell of a penal system built for 8,500 inmates but actually accommodating over 17,500. It will not be his first time, though. He has been there, and still deciding it is worth his while to keep on challenging Hun Sen.

Nevertheless, if CNRP had Plan B that would invoke people’s power minus non-violence, Chandler’s claim that only force can overthrow Hun Sen would be tested. Sometimes only the language of violence will make violent people like the premier understand the audacity of those who have nothing to lose.

Hun Sen is jumpy; he must feel an aura of the people’s power. Suspicions rule his actions when he has even the smallest meetings broken up to ease his mind. As an insurance policy he has approved a new prison that offers hotel facilities equipped with air-conditioning and presumably, gourmet menus, the construction of which begins this month. If the people’s power overwhelms his armed forces, Hun Sen will then have somewhere to live a life that he is accustomed to without drastic adjustments.

Ung Bun Ang

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By The Way

According to CPP spokesman Sok Eysan, Ban Ki-moon “governs” more than 200 countries. Does he really? The UN secretary-general plays many roles, but governing member states is definitely not one of them. At the last count, the number of the UN member states is 193, not over 200. He should take some time to verify facts, in lieu of flying on the seat of his pants, before opening his mouth.

Does Ban Ki-moon base his concern for the widespread intimidations and harassments in Cambodia on factual errors like Sok Eysan in his rebuke? Is Ban Ki-moon so bewildered by the bombings and killings in the Middle East that he loses his sense of reality in Cambodia? 

«រាល់​បញ្ហា​ដែល​កើត​ឡើង​រហូត​ដល់​អ្នក​ខ្លះ​ជាប់​ពន្ធនាគារ អ្នក​ខ្លះ​ជាប់​ឃុំ ហើយ​នៅ​ក្នុង​នីតិវិធី​តុលាការ​នេះ គឺ​អាស្រ័យ​ទៅ​ដោយ​បុគ្គល​ទាំងអស់​នោះ​ប្រព្រឹត្ត​ល្មើស​ច្បាប់។ អ៊ីចឹង​ខ្ញុំ​យល់​ថា អាច​ឯកឧត្តម បាន គីមូន ត្រួតត្រា​ប្រទេស​ជាង ២០០​ប្រទេស។ ដូច្នេះ​ធ្វើ​ឲ្យ​ចន្លោះ​ប្រហោង​ខ្លះ ឬ​មួយ​មមាញឹក​ទៅ​រឿង​មជ្ឈិមបូព៌ា​កំពុង​តែ​ទម្លាក់​គ្រាប់ កាប់​សម្លាប់​គ្នា​ហុយ​ផ្សេង​ [sic]នោះ ក៏​មិន​ដឹង ​បាន​ជា​មើល​ឃើញ​សភាពការណ៍​កម្ពុជា អាច​យល់​ច្រឡំ​យ៉ាង​ដូច្នេះ ។»

អ្នក​នាំ​ពាក្យ​គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជន​កម្ពុជា លោក សុខ ឥសាន ថ្ងៃទី៩ មិថុនា ២០១៦  វិទ្យុអាស៊ីសេរី  

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Hun Sen's Correlation Quandary

“There were four white days, meaning there were no people dying for four days… This has never happened and it’s because we have strictly enforced the Traffic Law.”

Deputy Premier and Interior Minister Sar Kheng, 27 May 2017, The Phnom Penh Post

“In fact, academics and government researchers have written numerous papers that attempt to explain the relationship between corruption and traffic accidents. Their conclusions aren’t uniform, but together they present a compelling case that there is a real connection between the two.”

Quartz reporter, Christopher Groskopf, Quarts, 23 April 2016

“I also get treatment in Cambodia from Cambodian doctors. However, Cambodian doctors recommended that I get my medical checkup abroad in order to identify some types of diseases that we do not have equipment for… Just because I have a medical checkup in Singapore, it does not mean that I do not have trust in Cambodian doctors.”

Premier Hun Sen, 19 January 2016, The Phnom Penh Post

“Samdech Kralahom [Kheng] contributes 4,000 riel [sic] [about $1] per day to nearly 3,500 traffic police. Samdech uses his own money to pay for the expense... I don’t know when it [the daily bonus] will end.”

Director of the public order department at the Ministry of Interior Run Roth Veasna, 29 February 2016, The Phnom Penh Post

Sar Kheng gets excited with his success in achieving four days of no traffic deaths, for which he coins a new term, “white day”. By choosing the colour code, it is uncertain if Sar Kheng hints a leadership challenge to Hun Sen, who has been so agitated by the colour bogey.

However, the accolade lasts only a few hours. A road collision in Svay Rieng kills two and sends seventy-five passengers to hospitals with some serious injuries, turning his white days into “black”. He must feel gutted, while Hun Sen might be delighted for overcoming another colour.

Sar Kheng may not know that researches show links among traffic death, income per capita, and rule of law. One of those studies indicates the traffic death will keep going north until the income per capita hits $10,000 before declining. Hence, the current income of $1,000 will have to rise tenfold before the death number drops. Given that it has taken Hun Sen more than three decades from Year Zero to reach the current level, it will likely take almost forever to reach the $10,000 mark.

Anyhow, that should not deter Hun Sen from trying to increase the average income.

One way to do this is to reduce the number of the poor. Traffic deaths can somewhat contribute to this drive. The number of deaths in 2015 is 2,265 with an annual increase of 7.8%, most of whom are arguably poor.

An inferior public health service is another way to reduce the poor’s number. The local healthcare is so mediocre that Hun Sen favours overseas services even for regular general check-ups. His local doctors who may either doubt their own capability or just simply cover their hide recently send him to Singapore where his doctor there prescribes “more golf”. Hun Sen lies when he implies he trusts domestic doctors. The local health system will remain tawdry until the premier puts his health and life solely on it. Otherwise, the local healthcare will continue to shorten the poor’s life expectancy, or keep them sick.

A more effective measure to raise the income per capita is to disregard rule of law, giving corruption a carte blanche. For instance, Sar Kheng, whose legitimate monthly income is about $2,500, could hardly explain how he affords to pay 3,500 traffic police officers daily bonuses that totals to approximately $532,000 from 1 January to end of May, unless his generosity has ended earlier. Sar Kheng is not alone, however, considering wealth and extravagence flaunted by his cohort.

Thus, here is the Hun Sen’s correlation quandary. A lower traffic death ties in with a higher income which in turn goes well with lawlessness; and this lawlessness is exactly what leads to a higher traffic fatality. Hun Sen’s win-win does not work in a circular link.

Therefore, he will continue with the current option: more money for him and his personal interest groups, no rule of law, and the poor whose lives are treated with such contempt anyway must remain dispensable.

Ung Bun Ang

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By The Way

Hun Manith is correct: his father has no pepper spray, no big horses, and no fancy body armour. There is no need for any of those stuff – he has bullets. Dead protesters cannot think once, let alone twice.

“I don’t think we can afford the pepper spray like the rich countries when tackling a protest. We don’t have big horses to deter the protester. We don’t have fancy body armor like they [US] do to make the protester think twice before deciding to continue longer.”

Director of the Defence Ministry’s military intelligence unit Gen Hun Manith, 2 June 2016, The Khmer Times

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Pseng-Pseng is published irregularly. Previous issues are archived at pseng-pseng.blogspot.com