CNRP Plan B

“Hun Sen has them (CNRP) right where he wants them.”

Author Sebastian Strangio, 29 August 2017, The Cambodia Daily

“No matter what, the CNRP has prepared a non-violent policy toward the election. We will do everything to make sure the political climate becomes regular for the 2018 election.”

CNRP Spokesman Yim Sovann, 31 August 2017, The Cambodia Daily

Sebastian Strangio may be correct that the CNRP is right where Hun Sen wants them to be – seemingly at a dark corner, confused, and bewildered. The more interesting question is whether the CNRP is capable of being somewhere else. Maybe.

The CNRP’s commitment to making sure the political climate becomes “regular” for the 2018 election is admirable, but their regular election is likely to be just another regular nightmare. They may need Plan B.

The fact is that Hun Sen has already taken measures to make the 2018 election another regular victory for himself. His current assaults on anything he regards as standing between him and his power show he leaves nothing to chance. The leaked CPP confidential manifesto, “The Introduction of Measures for Strategic Implementation: One member, One Vote” is to ensure that every member delivers their vote for the CPP. Hun Sen must be flabbergasted when his opponents win more commune seats, including commune chiefs, in Phnom Penh where there is a high concentration of the CPP members and public servants. A reliable CPP source indicates one of the tactics is to get the members to take a video tape of themselves marking the CPP on ballot paper when voting in 2018.

The Plan B would recognise that Hun Sen will not relinquish his power when he loses the election, and that no foreigner power is committed sufficiently to the CNRP beyond their lip service to make Hun Sen accept a change of government. Several CPP commune chiefs who lose the June commune elections refuse to hand over and/or vacate their office. The Ministry of Interior, which oversees commune administrations, takes no action besides advising incoming and outgoing commune chiefs to sort out their “dispute”. Hun Sen will refuse to move out of the Peace Palace. The armed forces that are bloated with sycophantic generals swearing allegiance to Hun Sen and his family will smash any protesters’ teeth. No matter what, Hun Sen will stay put; there are too much personal interests at stake.

The crux of the Plan B is a political defiance that calls for a CNRP boycott of the 2018 election. Indeed, no victory is sweeter than beating formidable archrivals, and Hun Sen would be deprived of that joy. If the boycott came with an effective campaign for a low voter turnout, Hun Sen would find the absence of glory excruciating. While Hun Sen agonising over his imaginary win in the vacuum, the CNRP might enjoy a well-deserved reprieve from Hun Sen’s all out assaults from now on.

Of course, the CNRP would pay dearly for the political defiance. Their professional parliamentarians would likely lose their jobs and salaries, and the party might be crumbling.

However, they must decide if they are to save their parliamentarians, or the nation. They may opt for the former, renewing Hun Sen’s legitimacy, and live miserably ever after. The arrest of Kem Sokha earlier today ought to convince them that their aim for a regular election is hopelessly naïve.

Ung Bun Ang

3ix17

By The Way

Now that Hun Sen opens his big mouth, everyone knows – The Cambodia Daily owner is a lead thief.

As they say, it takes one to know one. So, is Hun Sen a lead thief too? [Just look at his wealth and his family’s treasure and compare them to his declared incomes, even though Om Yen Tieng can’t connect the dots].

Hun Sen must know Al Capone tactic well enough to pull the same stunt on the Cambodia Daily in a pretence that he and his henchmen are so law abiding. If they are, how much tax have he, his children, and their accomplices paid to the State?

As thieves usually lie, only those with their head in the sand believe Hun Sen that his attack on the Cambodia Daily is anything but political.

“អាមេចោរ [ខេមបូឌា ដេលី] អត់បង់ពន្ធឱ្យរដ្ឋ១០ឆ្នាំ។ អានេះតាំងពីកើតចេញជារូបរាងមក មិនដែលបង់ពន្ធឱ្យរដ្ឋទេ។ បង់ពន្ធឱ្យរដ្ឋមក បើចង់នៅតទៅទៀត។ បើមិនបង់ពន្ធឱ្យរដ្ឋទេ វេចបង្វិចចាកចេញទៅ។ អាហ្នឹងនិយាយគ្នាឱ្យច្បាស់ៗ ហើយគ្មានរឿងនយោបាយនៅក្នុងហ្នឹងទេ។”

នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុន សែន, ថ្ងៃពុធ ទី ២៣ ខែសីហា ឆ្នាំ២០១៧, ខេមបូឌា ដេលី