Happy New Year
How Hun Sen Secures
New Government Legitimacy
«អត្រានៃការចូលរួមបោះឆ្នោត ទោះជាមិនដល់៣០ភាគរយក៏ដោយ អត់មានសិទ្ធិបដិសេធទេ។
អ៊ីចឹង ច្បាប់ស្រុកយើងទាំងរដ្ឋធម្មនុញ្ញមិនមានចែងពាក់ព័ន្ធនឹងរឿងហ្នឹងទេ។»
អ៊ីចឹងហើយបើការបោះឆ្នោតនោះ
មិនមានការចូលរួមពីគណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិទេ
ខ្ញុំសូមអំពាវនាវឱ្យប្រជាពលរដ្ឋខ្មែរ កុំចូលរួមនៅក្នុងការបោះឆ្នោត
សូមធ្វើពហិការការបោះឆ្នោតនោះ ហើយសូមអំពាវនាវឱ្យអ្នកសង្កេតការណ៍ទាំងជាតិ និងអន្តរជាតិ
កុំទៅចូលសង្កេតការណ៍អី
ព្រោះវាគ្មានបានការអ្វីនោះទេចំពោះការសង្កេតការណ៍បោះឆ្នោតដែលគេដឹងលទ្ធផលមុនថ្ងៃបោះឆ្នោតទៅទៀត
ទៅសង្កេតការណ៍គ្រាន់តែប្រថាប់ត្រាទទួលស្គាល់ការបោះឆ្នោតទេ។
សូមកុំទទួលស្គាល់ការបោះឆ្នោតលេងសើចបែបនេះ»។
អតីតប្រធានគណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិ
លោក សម រង្ស៊ី ថ្ងៃទី
៩ មេសា ២០១៨ អាស៊ីសេរី
“ចំណុចដែលពាក់ព័ន្ធទៅនឹងប្រព័ន្ធបោះឆ្នោត... គណបក្សប្រជាជនមិនជំទាស់ទេ
នៅពេលដែលឧកាសបានហុចមកដល់ ហើយប្រព័ន្ធបោះឆ្នោតវាសមស្រប
ដើម្បីឲ្យយើងប្រើប្រាស់សិទ្ធិរបស់ពលរដ្ឋនៅក្រៅប្រទេស ប៉ុន្ដែត្រូវមានលក្ខខ័ណ្ឌច្បាប់របស់វាច្បាស់លាស់អំពីបញ្ហានេះ។”
នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រីហ៊ុនសែន ថ្ងៃទី ១៦ មិនា ២០១៨ ទូរទស្សន៍អប្សារា
Amid calls for the July elections
boycott, the NEC Chairman is right that even less than 30% (maybe zero) voter
turnout will still be legal. Everything in Cambodia is so legalistic that it
puts the rest of world to shame.
It may be legal, but Hun Sen
knows a low turnout will put a huge question mark over his next government. Only
those who have rocks in their head will ever doubt whether Hun Sen will win the
July elections. Given the 86% turnout for the 2017 commune elections, which can
be one of the legitimacy benchmarks, Hun Sen must realise he has an uphill legitimacy
battle on his hand. It will be an incredible legacy if he can succeed here after
decimating a formidable opposition.
Hence, the main challenge for
Hun Sen now is to secure a high voter turnout. He has done his almost to ramp it
up. His frequent rants to garment workers and new graduates have intensified
and are unlikely to fizzle out between now and the elections. Never mind if factory
owners cannot be impressed with extensive down-times when their workers are at
Hun Sen’s monologues.
And he has two more options. One
is to resuscitate the CNRP for the elections. Hun Sen will need to work out an
optimum timing for them to come in – not so soon that they can cause
irritations, not so late that they will make no difference to the legitimacy. This
option is easy because the opposition is ready to be sucked in. Sam Rainsy boasts
he will need only one day before the elections to beat Hun Sen. Yet, he has not
revealed a practical power grab strategy after his elections victory; he must
be either ingenious in strategic planning, or naïve to expect Hun Sen to just
walk away from power.
Another major option is to allow
voting by more than a million migrant workers and overseas Cambodians whose
voting rights are already enshrined in the Constitution. With all pork-barrelling
he has showered local garment workers and a planned minimum wage system for all,
the migrant workers can, not only vote, but vote for him as well. Moreover, the
overseas Cambodians who are keen voters can also boost the turnout. If Hun Sen
is right that 90% of them are his supporters, it will be another win-win for him.
Anyhow, Hun Sen has already
discarded these two groups of potential turnout enhancers saying they cannot
vote because of the current election laws and technicality. He might want to
reconsider if these were the problems. He must know his minions in the three
branches of government will piss in whatever direction he tells them to. Legal
and technical hindrances have not stopped him, for instance, from dissolving
his formidable opponent and re-allocating their parliamentary and commune seats
to his party and elections losers.
Still, the easiest option for
Hun Sen is to let CNRP help for a higher turnout in the July elections that he
has already won.
Ung Bun Ang
15iv18
By the Way
Now it is clear why CNRP’s recent requests for a negotiation
with Hun Sen end in failure every time. They have no idea what they have that
they can force Hun Sen’s hand.
CNRP stalwart and CNRM co-founder Eng Chhai Eang is dead right
that every conflict ends only with negotiations. He is dead right again that
successful negotiations require concessions from all conflicting parties – sort
of gives and takes.
However, when asked what CNRP can offer as concessions in a
negotiation with Hun Sen, Eng Chhai Eang says they have nothing – they are just
a victim suffering from Hun Sen’s wrong doings. It is not clear whether the
co-founder understands his own statements on the art of negotiations and
conflict resolutions.
But they are lucky that Hun Sen is smarter and may decide they
can be of service to him, again. This time will be to help legitimise his new
government after the July elections. And it is possible that they will dive
head first into an empty pool when Hun Sen invites them to the elections they
are going to lose.
“[ក្នុងការចរចា ដើម្បីបញ្ចប់ជម្លោះនេះ] យើងត្រូវតែឈរនៅលើគោលការណ៍មួយ គឺគោរពគ្នា ឲ្យតម្លៃគ្នា ហើយយើងអាចធ្វើសម្បទានគ្នាទៅវិញទៅមក
ដើម្បីផល ប្រយោជន៍ជាតិ និងផលប្រយោជន៍ប្រជារាស្រ្ដខ្មែរ... គណបក្សប្រឆាំងអត់មាន សម្បទានអីទេ
ព្រោះគណបក្ស ប្រឆាំងជាគណបក្សប្រឆាំង ដែលរងគ្រោះ រងគ្រោះ ដោយសារគណបក្សកាន់ អំណាចរំលោភបំពាន
ព្រោះយើងអត់មានអីខុសទេ។”
អ្នកដឹកនាំចលនាសង្គ្រោះជាតិ អេងឆៃអ៊ាង ថ្ងៃទី៤ មេសា២០១៨ វិទ្យុបារាំងអន្ដរជាតិ
Should
you wish to receive Pseng-Pseng on your screen as soon as it is released,
subscribe to it at https://tinyletter.com/pseng-pseng
