Is CNRP Ready to Rule?

The question seems far-fetched, but Hun Sen does not rule it out considering the effort he has put into preventing a successful Sam Rainsy 9/11 return.

A possible answer is a definite maybe, unless the CNRP can overcome at least two vital challenges.

First, indispensable Kem Sokha. Though he is in house arrest, Kem Sokha has played a significant role in building up momentum Sam Rainsy relies upon for his 9/11 return. An inside source claims Hun Sen has a standing offer for Kem Sokha’s co-operation: unlimited cash and any government position except his job. Kem Sokha has flatly refused. His passive aggression gives his partner Sam Rainsy a powerful leverage in challenging Hun Sen. Sam Rainsy must recognise this; he continues to insist Kem Sokha and he be one.

However, what will a power-sharing arrangement between the two gigantic egos look like? Will Sam Rainsy honour his pledge to let Kem Sokha run the country? The Sam Rainsy and Kem Sokha factions have been on each other’s throat since Hun Sen dissolved their party. The latest public hostility sees the former endorses the 9/11 return while the latter rejects it. If there has been any serious attempt to reconcile the two factions, then it fails. Could they do better?

Second, indispensable CPP. Sam Rainsy has already declared, except Hun Sen, he can work with any CPP members. Nevertheless, a more relevant question is, will the CPP co-operate with the CNRP, especially in the long run?

There is a huge hurdle to jump over. In mobilising a popular support, Sam Rainsy promises a zero-sum reform plan that involves a massive redistribution of wealth from the CPP elite. It is unlikely that the CPP would take this massive blow to their personal interests laying down. A compromise is likely, but it may threaten integrity of the CNRP reform.

It seems the CPP hold all the cards that matter in the compromise. Their modus operandi has been for decades entrenched in all levels of the country’s administrative structure. This gives them an unofficial veto power to sabotage any unsavoury reform that impacts their interest. The CNRP will need their experience and expertise while learning the ropes. Unless they can manage a steep learning curve, the CPP will retain the administrative power. 

Another CPP’s powerful key in their arsenal is their rampant corruption. It is so ironic the corruption that helps bring a possible Hun Sen downfall is also their deadly weapon against their nemesis. Just ask Funcinpec how their lust for positions and cash has decimated the party that won the 1993 general elections. The CPP corruption endemic would eat a presumptuous or naive CNRP alive. Hence, the question is, has the CNRP leadership been inoculated against the infectious lust and corruption to resist a Funcinpec harakiri temptation?

Unless the CNRP can resolve these challenges, the 9/11 return that may draw a fierce confrontation will only drag the people into another calamity for nothing. They deserve a break from further leadership ineffectiveness.

Ung Bun Ang

31x19

Funny News You Can Use

What a brilliant mind CPP spokesman Sok Eysan has displayed. He manages to encrypt his sensitive message against Hun Sen in what he calls logic. Let’s decipher his encrypted logic.

Four years after a mob attack that caused severe bodily harms to two opposition parliamentarians, Sok Eysan assures he has logic to show that the opposition party is a mastermind of the attack. His logic is that only those who are not responsible for citizens’ security dare to commit the atrocity so that responsible authorities will take the blame. Hence, the logic points to the opposition as the mastermind of the attack.

The court convicts and jails three of the mob, which means, according to the Eysan logic, they are working for the opposition. As the convicts are identified as senior armed officers of Hun Sen’s bodyguards, Eysan reveals there are the opposition’s operatives within a striking distance to Hun Sen.

The opposition plot thickens. The three men are then released early and get promoted – one of them to a brigadier general, which are rewards for a job well-done. Hence, those who are involved with these reward handouts must be in cohort with the opposition mastermind.

It is now clear why Hun Sen is nervous and unsettling. He must feel a concerted effort among “his people” with the opposition to pull the rug out from under his feet.

Nevertheless, if Sok Eysan does not mean any of this encrypted message that is delivered so cunningly, his mind must be dull and needs regular tune-up like a car combustion engine.

«ហេតុផល ​គឺ​អ្នក​ដែល​អត់​ទទួលខុស​ខាង​ការពារ​សន្តិសុខ​សុវត្ថិភាពជូន​ប្រជាពលរដ្ឋ​ទេ​ដែល​ហ៊ាន​ធ្វើ​ករណី​ហ្នឹង ដើម្បី​ដាក់​កំហុស​លើ​អ្នក​ដែល​មាន​តួនាទី​ការពារ​សន្តិសុខ​សុវត្ថិភាព​ជូន​ប្រជាពលរដ្ឋ។»

អ្នកនាំពាក្យ​គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជន​កម្ពុជា សុខ ឥសាន ថ្ងៃ​ទី​ ២៦ តុលា ឆ្នាំ​២០១៩

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Hun Sen in Panic Mode?

«នៅលើពិភពលោក ឬនៅក្នុងតំបន់អាស៊ី តើមានរបបណាខ្លះ ដែលពេលបរទេសមកជួយ ហើយពេល បរទេសដកចេញត្រឡប់ទៅវិញ បែរជារដ្ឋបាលស្ថិតស្ថេរ? គឺ មានតែកម្ពុជាទេ… ដល់រដ្ឋាភិបាលហ៊ុន សែន វៀតណាម ចូលមកជួយ ដល់វៀតណាមដកចេញ ក្នុង ដំណាក់កាលរដ្ឋាភិបាលរបស់ខ្ញុំ វៀតណាមដកត្រឡប់ទៅវិញ រដ្ឋាភិបាលហ៊ុន សែន ឈរយ៉ាងមាំ នៅនេះ ។ ពិតមែនតែត្រូវធ្វើការសម្របសម្រួល ប៉ុន្តែសម្របសម្រួលលើមូលដ្ឋាននៃយន្តការរបស់ រដ្ឋាភិបាល ហ៊ុន សែនទាំងអស់ ។ នៅលើការជាក់ស្ដែង ហ៊ុន សែនកំពុងឈរនៅទីនេះ ហើយនឹងឈររហូតដល់ ១០ ឆ្នាំ ទៀតឯណោះ។»

នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុន សែន ថ្ងៃ​ទី១១ ខែ​តុលា ឆ្នាំ ២០១៩ ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍

If incoherent statements indicate a panic, then a panic has set in within Hun Sen regime. Hun Sen has his own version of history to which he is entitled. It only reflects a trouble state of mind when he is unaware that his own public statements are incoherent and conflicting.

Hun Sen hails his regime as being stable and superior to any other in the world. He says his does not collapse like others after his saviour Vietnam withdraws their 100,000 forces. But there are heaps of nations on earth that have not collapsed, if not prospered, after their master withdraw their patronage: Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, India, Thailand, just to name a few. His regime, which is far from being the most stable, has been struggling with public discontent that has grown into a current existential threat.

Hun Sen loses track of his statements, like any panic person does. While boasting his regime still stands firm after Vietnam withdraws their troops, he claims the foreign troops have stayed for ten years only to ensure the Khmer Rouge will not return. Does he realise what he is saying? He is saying his regime needs Vietnam for at least ten years to survive after the Khmer Rouge defeat. He must know the Khmer Rouge would be able to regroup to have his regime for breakfast after their summary loss to Vietnam the night before. Thus, why does Hun Sen claim he can survive without Vietnam when he says he cannot?

Even after the Vietnamese ten-year occupation ends his regime remains shaky and loses the 1993 elections. Without his nemeses’ generosity and political concession, he would be out in the cold. Now he is staring at an existential threat that may finish him off for good unless he entices the Vietnamese troops to return. His recent trip to Hanoi sees him sign further border treaties many are fearful of the neighbour’s territorial ambitions.

However, if these incoherent statements do not constitute a panic mind, then applications for foreign citizenships by some of his inner circle cannot be a comfort to him. So far, Hun Sen’s niece Hun Kimleng and her husband national police chief Neth Savoeun; Finance Minister Aun Pornmoniroth and his wife; Pheapimex’s Choeung Sopheap and her husband Senator Lau Ming Kan; are packing up their bags and cash for Cyprus. These high-profile cohorts control the police and Hun Sen’s finance. A credible source in his inner circle claims the retreat like rats deserting a sinking ship is just a tip of the iceberg. This cannot be a vote of confidence in the regime.

If the exodus of close cohorts does not aggravate the panic, Hun Sen must be warming up to an exit plan, and it may be just an advance party for him. An option that has been tossed around is an exile to the Middle East where his friend and economic adviser Thaksin has found peace and solace for many years. He could now be Hun Sen’s spiritual adviser.

Ung Bun Ang

22x19

Funny News You Can Use

Campro (Cambodian Professionals) member Tith Tina has now received responses from some intellectuals to his question and invitation below for them to leave Cambodia if they are dumb enough to do so. According to leaked documents published by Reuters, high-profile members of Hun Sen’s families and allies have taken up the invitation to leave. They plan their escape routes seven years earlier than when Tith Tina issues a challenge on the Campro forum.

Thus, according to Tith Tina, the likes of Hun Kimleng, her husband national police chief Neth Savoeun, Finance Minister Dr Aun Pornmoniroth, his wife, Pheapimex’s Choeung Sopheap, her husband Senator Lau Ming Kan, are dumb enough to believe Hun Sen’s regime is barbaric and totalitarian. They are leaving Tith Tina for Cyprus – a paradise of democratic country of their choice.

The question is: are Tith Tina, his father Tith Munty, and the whole Tith family smart enough to hang around in a Hun Sen sinking ship? It will be ironic if Hun Sen chooses to leave before the Tiths do. Then again, they may have changed their mind since.

“Anyway, we are not dumb enough to believe ourself [sic] living in a barbarous totalitarian regime, are we? If so, everyone is free to seek political asylum in the paradise of democratic countries of their choice.”

Mine & Energy Secretary of State Tith Tina, son of Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Tith Munty, 4 January 2017, Campro forum

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The Second-Class Intellectuals

«មិន​​បាច់​រៀន​អ្វី​ក៏​បាន​ដែរ ប្រឡង​ចេញ ប្រឡង​លេងៗ ប៉ុន្តែ​គេ​ឱ្យ​សញ្ញាប័ត្រ​ដូច​គ្នា ឈ្មោះ West Point ដូច​គ្នា​អ៊ីចឹង ប៉ុន្តែ​គេ​អត់​ទទួលស្គាល់​នៅ​ស្រុក​គេ​ទេ។ ចង់​ធ្វើ​មេទ័ព​នៅ​អាមេរិក ឱ្យ​មក​បំពេញ​តួនាទី​ដូច​ជន​ជាតិ​​ស្បែក​ស ដែល​គេ​ទទួល​សញ្ញាប័ត្រ​ដែរ​នោះ គេ​អត់​ឱ្យ​ទេ។ គេ​ថា អ្នក​ឯង​យក​ទៅ​ស្រុក​អ្នក​ឯង អ្នក​ឯង​យក​ទៅ​បង្អួត​ទៅ​ សញ្ញាប័ត្រ​ប្រភេទ​ទី​ពីរ​នោះ​ណា។ អា​ហ្នឹង​ជា​កិច្ច​ការទូត នយោបាយ គេ​ចង់​មាន​ទំនាក់​ទំនង​ល្អ គេ​ឱ្យ​ទៅ​កូន​នាយក​រដ្ឋ​មន្ត្រី​នេះ កូន​ប្រធានាធិបតី​នោះ ឱ្យ​យក​សញ្ញាប័ត្រ​ក្លែង​ក្លាយ ប្រភេទ​ទី​ពីរ​នោះ​យក​ទៅ​បង្អួត​នៅ​ស្រុក​ខ្លួន​ទៅ។”​

ប្រធាន​ស្ដីទី​គណបក្ស​សង្គ្រោះ​ជាតិ​ សម រង្ស៊ី ​ថ្ងៃ​ទី ៣០  ខែ​កញ្ញា ឆ្នាំ២០១៩

“Graduates of US colleges, universities or institutes of higher learning receive degrees or certifications if they meet the requirements of that institution. A student’s country of origin is not a factor… US higher education institutions have an unmatched reputation for academic quality and critical thinking…”

US embassy spokesperson Emily Zeeberg, 4 October 2019, Khmer Times

“Rainsy’s words really look down on Khmer nationality which he thinks Khmer can not [sic] do and must have different standards from other nationalities.”

Second Cambodian West Point Graduate Meach Sithyka, 1 October 2019, Freshnews Asia

« ការដែលអ្នកចោទមិនហ៊ានភ្នាល់ វានឹងសឱ្យឃើញថា គាត់បាននិយាយតែផ្តាស គ្មានមូលដ្ឋានច្បាស់លាស់។»

នាយកមជ្ឈមណ្ឌលសិក្សាគោលនយោបាយ ច័ន្ទ សុផល ​ថ្ងៃ​ទី២ ខែ​តុលា២០១៩ ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍

«លោកសម រង្ស៊ី ជាមនុស្សមានបញ្ហាខាងស្មារតី ពីព្រោះគាត់តែងតែ ដើរចោទប្រកាន់គេគ្រប់គ្នា ដោយមិនសមហេតុផល ហើយគាត់មិនហ៊ានភ្នាល់ទេ ដោយសារតែគាត់និយាយតាមការនឹកឃើញ ហើយនិយាយគ្មានមូលដ្ឋាន និងមិនអាចរក ទឡ្ហីករណ៍ មកការពារខ្លួន និងភាសារបស់ លោកតែងតែញុះញង់ បរិហារអ្នកដទៃ ដែលធ្វើឲ្យ សាធារណជនមានការយល់ច្រឡំ។»

ប្រធានវិទ្យាស្ថានទំនាក់ទំនងអន្តរជាតិនៃរាជបណ្ឌិត្យសភាកម្ពុជា គិន ភា ​ថ្ងៃ​ទី២ ខែ​តុលា២០១៩ ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍

Many Cambodians have graduated from all types of foreign universities including first-class. Most regard themselves as intellectuals or professionals. Some, however, fails to apply what their first-class institutions claim to teach in their curriculum. Is this because these first-class institutes also engage in dishing out second-class degrees, or first-class intellect is beyond Cambodian graduates?

Yes, at least one of the most reputable Australian universities has conferred second-class certificates for decades. An econometrics professor friend of mine who tells me in the 70’ that well-connected students with scholarships from corrupt countries are not geared for any mental challenge. The conundrum is that if his university conferred a “normal” degree on them, its prestige would be blemished. Yet, it cannot fail them; it would cause catastrophic diplomatic quakes.

There is, however, a genius compromise: a degree with a “special” design and inscription for these “special” talents. Thus, my friend hails, the university reputation will remain intact while recipients and their governments will be happy; their ignorance will not hurt them. Indeed, only a select few know about this “special”.

Perhaps West Point Military Academy shares a similar practice. Responding to a claim that it does, the Academy confirms, though uncontested, it has issued degrees to three well-connected students from Cambodia. The US embassy refers in general terms to the US higher education system and requirements. Both fail to address an implication of the claim that one of the requirements, perhaps unwritten, is a political consideration for diplomatic sensitivity. Both do not explicitly deny the contention that first-class institutions like West Point cannot fail their well-connected students.

Anyhow, West Point may issue only a first-class diploma, but reactions of their graduates to the claim appear so second-class. Hun Manet resorts to wagering to make his point. He is thrilled declaring the Zeeberg statement validates his diploma; really? Another West Point graduate stretches the claim to another level: she says it treats Khmer nationality with contempt. Suddenly, she pretends to represent the whole nation.

If Hun Manet learned anything about critical thinking at West Point, he would be deflated by the Zeeberg statement. If Zeeberg counts West Point as one of the US institutions that she says enjoy an unmatched reputation for “critical thinking”, the two graduates who have reacted to the provocative claim have failed their school in this instance. Their responses are emotional-driven and too simplistic; they are not outcomes of a critical thinking.

Then there is a Hun Manet cheer squad that consists of local intellectuals. Centre for Policy Studies director rushes to conclude that a refusal of a wager means the claim is nonsensical and baseless. A Royal Academy of Cambodia director agrees and goes for the jugular: the claim is by a person with mental problems. They can manage only these intellectually deficient contributions. Somehow their thinking is wrapped up in a gambling mentality to play the man rather than the ball.

It is sad that these intellectuals forgo the opportunity to make their schools proud of their intellect.

Ung Bun Ang

11x19

Funny News You Can Use

Well, they say only the brain-dead will not change their mind; and neither do they care.

They made it sound so caring when they decided to ban foreigners from working in the informal sector. They said the move would help protect jobs of Cambodian people and create more employment opportunities for them. They said they had consulted all relevant stakeholders and checked all national and international laws to avoid any kind of discrimination. It was a ban made in heaven for Cambodians that lasts for only 37 days.

Then, they say they forgot the golden rule, that is, the man with the gold makes the rule.

After checking with their money man, they claim Cambodians are not capable of servicing the man in driving; chauffeuring; hairdressing; sewing; peddling goods and services; shoes shining; vehicle repairing; processing gold and precious stones; and producing Khmer materials: souvenirs, musical instruments, Buddha statues, and monks alms bowls.

With Hun Sen favouring even routine medical check-ups in Singapore, they show Cambodia could not do without foreigners from the informal sector to professional services.

If any of West Point graduates is still searching for a contempt of Cambodian people, look no further.

“[The lifting of the ban] is due to a demand for foreign expertise in the service sector and in order to encourage investment to Cambodia.”

Labour Minister Ith Samheng, 7 October 2019, Khmer Times

“We have issued this prakas at an appropriate time after consultations with relevant parties. After careful review and discussions with employers, workers and union representatives and the government, with regards to both regional and international legal frameworks, as well as the Labour Law, the prakas avoids racial or geographical discrimination.”

Ministry of Labour spokesman Heng Sour, 28 August 2019, The Phnom Penh Post

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Only He Can Rescue Hun Sen

…រៀបចំកម្លាំងស្អី? អ្នកឯងរៀបចំធ្វើអំពើភេរវកម្មហ៎? ត្រៀមប្រយុទ្ធហ៎? ប្រាប់ឲ្យហើយ ផ្ញើសារឲ្យទូទាំងប្រទេស បញ្ឈប់ទៅអាគណៈកម្មការចំពោះកិច្ច ទាំងនៅភ្នំពេញ នៅវាលវែង ខេត្តឯណាៗ គឺ និយាយឲ្យត្រង់ ឃើញមួយ វាយមួយទៅ។

នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុនសែន ​ថ្ងៃ​ទី២១ ខែ​មីនា ឆ្នាំ​២០១៩ ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍

«យើង​ធ្វើ​អ៊ីចឹង​វា​ហួស​ហេតុ​ពេក យក​ប្រពៃណី​ធ្វើ​នយោបាយ វា​អត់​សម​ទេ។ ធ្វើ​នេះ​ឲ្យ​ពលរដ្ឋ​ភ័យ​ខ្លាច ដោយ​ឡែក​ពលរដ្ឋ​តាម​ជនបទ គ្នា​មិន​ទាន់​ដឹង​ច្បាប់​​ដឹង​ទម្លាប់​ គ្នា​ភ័យ។ ខ្លះ​ចូល​វត្ត ខ្លះ​ក៏​មិន​ចូល​ទៅ។ វា​មិន​ចំណេញ​ទេ​ធ្វើ​អ៊ីចឹង។ បើ​និយាយ​ពី​មន្ត្រី​រាជការ ដូច​ទីងមោង ចង់​ធ្វើ​អ្វី​បាន​តាម​ចិត្ត។ នេះ​ទី​មួយ​ប៉ះពាល់​សតិ​អារម្មណ៍​ពលរដ្ឋ ទី២ វា​ថោក​ខ្លួន​ឯង។ យើង​ជា​ថ្នាក់​ដឹក​នាំ​ចុង​ក្រោយ​ខ្លាច​រាស្ត្រ​តូច​តាច​វិញ។ អា​ហ្នឹង​គេ​ហៅ​ថា ថោក​ខ្លួន​ឯង»។

ពលរដ្ឋ​​ខេត្ត​ស្ទឹងត្រែង​ លោក ថាន់​ វ៉ន ថ្ងៃ​ទី២៨ ខែ​កញ្ញា ឆ្នាំ២០១៩ វិទ្យុអាស៊ីសេរី

Now that the world leaves him out in the cold, Hun Sen is alone to fence off all assaults on his authority from both outside and inside the government.

Against outside foes, Hun Sen opts for a violent showdown. He has carried out his promise to smash every single opponent, perceived or otherwise, that pops up in his face. To date, 165 CNRP members have been summoned to court, 30 thrown in jail, one death in custody, physical assaults by hit and run assailants, and countless are in hiding. The numbers are mounting.

Nevertheless, it is puzzling if he is trying to prove right leaked outcomes of a series of market research he has commissioned since Sam Rainsy announced his 9/11 return, or if he just too anxiously reacts to the outcomes that he assumes are reliable.

The leaked research information paints a gloomy prospect for Hun Sen, which should not be surprising given what Hun Sen has done to the country in the past few decades. However, it includes some numbers that must unsettle Hun Sen. It says about 2 million people may turn up to welcome Sam Rainsy’s return. It is now clear why Hun Sen, who is a fervent betting man, ignores a proposed wager on a 2 million turnout. The estimate is about two-thirds of votes the CNRP receives in 2013 and 2017 elections.

Perhaps the numbers that drive Hun Sen into the violence overdrive are the information algorithms indicating that it is 98% certain that there will be a popular uprising, and the probability of Hun Sen bringing it under control is less than 1%.

The inability to control the uprising underlines armed forces cohesion, or lack of it, which is also addressed in the leaked information. It claims 65% of the armed forces would give heed to Sam Rainsy’s appeal for a mutiny, which leaves only 35% to Hun Sen.

It is uncertain how the divide has first come about, but it is likely to be perpetuated, if not exacerbated, by recent restructuring of the armed forces and Hun Sen’s reactions to the divide. First, Hun Sen’s fast promotion of his son Manet to a military top job may agitate many generals, especially those who lose out in the restructure and those who doubt Manet’s suitability. Second, a recent strip of Oknha title from numerous generals is a severe slap in the face in a regime that glorifies titles. Third, Hun Sen repeatedly threatens his generals their wealth is closely linked to him being in power. If he is gone, so will their riches. He may again demand all armed forces swear allegiance to him.

Anyhow, with the divide and the coming 9/11 challenge, Hun Sen has again instilled fear throughout the country. It is a portent that he fails to realise his fear card is consistently proved ineffective. Otherwise, nobody would now challenge his authority.

Yet, Hun Sen’s fortune can still be rescued, should Sam Rainsy lose his nerve and retire in Paris.

Ung Bun Ang

5x19

Funny News You Can Use

So, what is going on with a formal request Hun Sen says he has sent to all ASEAN members asking them to arrest and extradite Sam Rainsy to Cambodia for him?

Malaysia’s Mahathir says he has not received it. Cambodian Foreign Affairs Minister Prak Sokhon says he has sent it, but he may stuff it up somewhere in a diplomatic channel. Does he really want to have Sam Rainsy arrested and extradited for Hun Sen? Or he is just plain inefficient?

Still, Mahathir says he does not interfere in internal affairs of any country. Sokhon says non-interference is one thing and cooperation to arrest criminals is another. Smart answer from the Cambodian top diplomat.

But will Mahathir arrest the criminal in transit when Prak Sokhon implies the Malaysian prime Minister does not know any better? Does he really want Mahathir to arrest Sam Rainsy for Hun Sen? Hun Sen may think not.

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