CNRP Invests in Future Miracle

“ឥឡូវខ្ញុំសុំផ្តល់សេចក្តីសង្ឃឹមជូនបងប្អូនជនរួមជាតិ។​ យើងក្រឡេកមើលគជបបច្ចុប្បន្ននេះ  ប៉ុណ្ណឹងហើយ នៅតែគណបក្សប្រជាជនកម្ពុជាចាញ់គណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិផង អាស្រ័យទៅលើប្រជាពលរដ្ឋទេ។ បើសិនជា គជបថ្មី ល្អជាងហ្នឹងតែបន្តិច  រឿងអីយើងមិនឈ្នះ? ។”

អនុប្រធាន​គណបក្ស​សង្គ្រោះ​ជាតិ កឹម សុខា ទី​៣ ខែ​ធ្នូ ឆ្នាំ​២០១៤ ​វិទ្យុ​អាស៊ីសេរី

“បើនិយាយពីការកែទំរង់នេះ  និយាយឲ្យអស់​  បើថាគណបក្សប្រជាជនជាអ្នកមិនកែទំរង់ ប្រហែលជាការ កែទំរង់ហ្នឹង ពិបាកធ្វើបានណាស់  ខ្ញុំនិយាយដោយស្មោះត្រង់។”

ព្រុំ សុខា តំណាង​ក្រុម​ដឹកនាំ​ការចរចា​តំណាង​អោយ​គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជនកម្ពុជា វិទ្យុ​អាស៊ីសេរី​ ថ្ងៃ​ច័ន្ទ ទី ៣ ខែ​វិច្ឆិកា ឆ្នាំ​២០១៤

“Pung Chhiv Kek is not troubled by the new restriction and is still waiting for demands made months ago to be met. She has asked for conditions, that the National Election Committee (NEC) is independent, members have [parliamentary-style] immunity, the right to choose staff autonomously, the right to autonomously control its budget. If this is all OK, she will agree, if not, she will decline.”

Pung Chhiv Kek’s senior colleague at Licadho Am Sam Ath, 2 December 2014, The Phnom Penh Post

“ដូច្នេះគជបថ្មីហ្នឹងគឺ សំរេចលើសមាសភាពអគ្គធិការដ្ឋាន ហើយសំណើរ ទៅរាជរដ្ឋាភិបាល។ រាជរដ្ឋាភិបាល នឹងរៀបចំឲ្យមានអនុក្រិត្យមួយ ។ អនុក្រិត្យហ្នឹងគ្រាន់ តែឆ្លុះបញ្ចាំងសំណើរតាមសំណើរ ហើយសំណើរហ្នឹង គឺសំណើរគជប តាមមតិ ភាគច្រើន ដូចយើងនិយាយអំបាញ់មិញ។”

ប្រធាន​គណបក្ស​សង្គ្រោះ​ជាតិ សម រង្ស៊ី ថ្ងៃ​ពុធ ទី​៣ ខែ​ធ្នូ ឆ្នាំ​២០១៤ ​វិទ្យុ​អាស៊ីសេរី

“ ខ្ញុំដូចជាមិនឆ្ងល់អីទេ គណបក្សកាន់អំណាច ទោះបីអត់មានច្បាប់ ក៍គេចង់ធ្វើអីក៍បានដែរ ហើយជួនកាល គេយកច្បាប់មកប្រើដើម្បីផលប្រយោជន៍អំណាចរបស់គេ។ គេធ្លាប់ធ្វើហើយ គេបានធ្វើទៀត ដូច្នេះហើយ រឿងនេះ គេចង់ធ្វើអីក៍ស្រេចទៅលើគេដដែលដែរ។”

អនុប្រធាន​គណបក្ស​សង្គ្រោះ​ជាតិ កឹម សុខា ថ្ងៃ​ពុធ ទី​៣ ខែ​ធ្នូ ឆ្នាំ​២០១៤ ​វិទ្យុ​អាស៊ីសេរី

“ ឥឡូវគេចង់រំលាយអីក៍បានដែរ ពីព្រោះដរាបណាគណបក្សប្រជាជនមានសម្លេងច្រើនជាង៥០%បូក១ នៅរដ្ឋសភា គេចង់ធ្វើអ្វីក៍បានដែរឥឡូវហ្នឹង។”

ប្រធាន​គណបក្ស​សង្គ្រោះ​ជាតិ សម រង្ស៊ី ថ្ងៃ​ពុធ ទី​៣ ខែ​ធ្នូ ឆ្នាំ​២០១៤ ​វិទ្យុ​អាស៊ីសេរី

They are indeed achievements of historic proportion for the CNRP: a balanced NEC, recognition of a Minority leader in parliament with a formal status equivalent to premier, and to top it all, a TV station. They make the party believe it will win future elections. It has won so many seats under the current CPP-controlled NEC; thus, it is only logical that a balanced NEC will deliver an election victory.

However, assuming that CNRP still aims to make Hun Sen a Minority leader, could the achievements plus a newly-embraced culture of dialogue really bring CNRP to power?

Perhaps more to the point is this: will Hun Sen allow enough reforms for him to lose power? Prum Sokha confirms, with all his sincerity, no reform is possible without the CPP’s approval.

There is no reason for Hun Sen to execute reforms to the extent that he puts his power and wealth at risk. He is shrewd enough to allow some superficial reforms that are necessary to entertain an illusory hope that real changes are forthcoming. Hence, he is still in effective control of these historic achievements that thrill CNRP so much.

First, if Pung Chhiv Kek declines the ninth membership of the balanced NEC, which is likely as her conditions for acceptance are so far discarded, the two parties will look elsewhere for her replacement. A CPP trump card is that it can stall the process until CNRP agrees to a candidate CPP wants. Unless CNRP bows to CPP again, the deadline for setting up a balanced NEC by the end of February 2015 may just be to confirm the current one stays.

Second, assuming a “suitable” replacement is found, a new NEC is formed and proceeds to select its secretariat executives. If the ninth member is CPP-compliant, any proposed executives will satisfy the CPP who will then issue a government sub-decree to officially appoint them. Though the CNRP assumes the sub-decree issue is just a rubber stamp, the CPP can still decide to withhold it if it believes it cannot at least influence any proposed secretariat put forward by the new NEC.

It may take a bit more than the culture of dialogue, Minority leadership, and a TV station to turn the NCRP’s historic achievements into miracles. The biggest assumption of all is that if Hun Sen loses any elections, he will gracefully hand over the power that has served him and his personal interest groups so well for decades. He did not back down after the 1993 elections defeat, why would he do it now? Plus, he has a lot more at stake now than ever before.

The CNRP leaders may well know all this. Beyond their political rhetoric on winning elections, they admit that even with the balanced NEC, the CPP still can do what it wants due to its 50% plus one parliamentary majority. They are now speaking of institution building for future generations – as if they have given up on rescuing the nation in their lifetime.

Ung Bun Ang

10xii14

Parthian Shot:

Premier Hun Sen is annoyed with his critics who are more fearful of being struck by lightening than his wrath.

“... ប៉ុន្តែដល់ពិតបា្រកដ ជេរ ។ គេឲ្យនិយាយក្នុងសភា ម៉េចក៍មិននិយាយ?​ បើមិនបានជេរគេហ្នឹង រន្ទ:វាបាញ់ ឬស្អី? ”

​នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុន សែន ថ្ងៃ​ទី​៤ ខែ​ធ្នូ ឆ្នាំ​២០១៤  ​វិទ្យុ​អាស៊ីសេរី

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