Hun Sen’s Internal Time Bomb

«ជាន់កអាហ្អែងថែម អាហ្នឹងវារឿងតែប៉ុណ្ណឹង។ អាហ្អែងខូច អញកាត់ទោសអាហ្អែង អានេះជាផ្លូវច្បាប់។ តែអាហ្អែងទៅអំពាវនាវឲ្យគេបំផ្លាញកម្ពុជា។ អ៊ីចឹង មានអីត្រូវទុកឲ្យអា ហ្អែងរស់តទៅទៀត! ឲ្យច្បាស់! សុំកុំប្រមាថ ហើយសុំកុំព្រមានចំពោះកម្ពុជា។

នាយក រដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុន សែន ថ្ងៃ​ទី១៥ មករា ឆ្នាំ២០១៩ ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍

PM Hun Sen is so committed to eliminating fake news that he talks candidly to PP about his current worries:

PP: You often use a vulgar language in public. Why?

HS: To show off my authority and threaten my foes as well as my minions.

PP: Many succumb to your threats; a few don’t...

HS: That is because I have not been vulgar enough. I will do better.

PP: One of the recalcitrant is Kem Sokha whom you lock up in his room like a naughty kid.

HS: Well, there is a sign in his room reminding him that he can walk out any time.

PP: No conditions?

HS: Indeed, there is. He must denounce Sam Rainsy, like Kong Korm did.

PP: What is the difference between the two men?

HS: Kong Korm is smart and accommodating. I told him I could drum up cases to confiscate all the land he ever owns. What do they say? If you’ve got them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow. I have tried to grab Kem Sokha’s balls even before he was locked up.

PP: What if Kem Sokha has no balls?

HS: I will use his freedom as a leverage to get the EU import tax off my back. The EU can have his freedom, and I the tax concessions.

PP: Why are these concessions so important to you?

HS: A loss will devastate my power base.

PP: What do you mean? Are you worried about possible revolts if factories’ workers lose their jobs due to a possible export cut?

HS: No, the workers are the least of my worry.

PP: Oh, how so?

HS: Most fear me. It will take them a long time and courage to revolt.

PP: So, what is your main worry?

HS: My top minions and generals. They can anytime mount a revolt against me. The export cut will hurt their financial and mental well-beings.

PP: How so, sire?

HS: They have direct financial interests in those factories and in the “Made-in-Cambodia” label they have sold to apparel factories in China for years.

PP: Is this why you called a meeting of the CPP Central Committee a few days ago?

HS: Yes, and I have worked out who a potential challenger to my power is.

PP: How, sire?

HS: I asked the members of some 900 or so to nominate – in a secret ballot – their preferred candidate among Hun Manet, Say Chhum, Sar Kheng, Aun Pon Monirath, and Prak Sokhon to succeed me.

PP: So, they know who your successor is…

HS: Not quite. I brought the ballot box home to count and keep the outcome to myself.

PP: It must be your son Hun Manet.

HS: No, it’s Sar Kheng.

PP: Sar Kheng???

HS: Yes, he’s the man who prefers a generic term, “Royal Government of Cambodia”, rather than “Hun Sen Government or Regime” that clearly acknowledges my glorious achievements so far.

PP: You are right to be so anxious and vulgar, sire.

Ung Bun Ang

22i19

Fake News You Can Use

It is rather refreshing that, according to Heng Vanda, the education sector has almost got rid of corruption. He pays tribute to Minister Hang Chuon Narong for the latter’s reform effort. It is refreshing because, buried in the pile of manures, there is a little sparkling diamond untarnished.

Perhaps, Heng Vanda sends Hun Sen a message that if leaders are clean there will be no corruption issues.

Then again Hen Vanda may just be ingratiating himself with the Minister for something in his form of corruption labyrinth.

“If leaders are clean, then there will be no problems with money or corruption… I can say that there is very little corruption now in the education sector.”

High Education Association chairman Heng Vanda, 11 January 2019, Khmer Times

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A Tipping Point in 2019?

“ខ្ញុំបានប្រាប់អាកាសយាន កុំហាមឃាត់ក្នុងការដឹកអាចង្រៃនេះចូលស្រុក ព្រោះយើងត្រូវដាក់ខ្នោះវា ព្រោះយើងតាមចាប់វាយូរហើយ ចាប់មិនបាន។ ឥឡូវវាមកឲ្យយើងចាប់ហើយ រឿងអីវាមិនស្រួល? រឿងអីវាមិនស្រួល? សុំអញ្ជើញមក ខ្ញុំក៍បានត្រៀមខ្លួនហើយដែរ អញ្ចឹងត្រៀមទៅ។”

នាយក​​រដ្ឋ​មន្ត្រីហ៊ុនសែន ថ្ងៃទី ២៦ ធ្នូ ២០១៨    វិទ្យុបារាំងអន្តរជាតិ

A reliable source in Hun Sen’s inner-circle claims Hun Sen is being frustrated with a dilemma that only Sam Rainsy can help resolve. He is often heard giving vent to his exasperation by yelling at others in his city residence. He has held frequent meetings in the last few weeks with a small group of his close confidants, namely CPP vice president Say Chhum. A Chinese adviser also attends those discussions.

The Hun Sen conundrum is what and how he will respond if Sam Rainsy lands at Phnom Penh Airport. There are three basic options under his consideration.

One, as he blusters, he can arrest his nemesis, lock him up, and throws away the key. This may lead to a revolt by die-hard supporters and other followers, which can spin out of his control. Two, he can let the nemesis roam free after his return. This may breathe new life into the opposition party, which could consolidate and grow beyond his control. Three, he can opt for a Kem Ley option. This may lead to an instant uncontrollable popular uprising. Half of the 2013 and 2017 voters support his opposition. Kem Ley’s funeral procession attracts hundreds of thousand mourners that could have turned rebellious at the time to end his rule.

All the responses point to a possible tipping point that can develop into something Hun Sen’s armed forces will no longer be in control. Hun Sen is right to be worried about the tipping point. There has been a rise in workers unrest despite stricter labour and union laws. Garment workers have been demanding outstanding seniority payments in line with the amended labour law. Hun Sen uses labour exploitation argument to threaten the workers that their claim, though legal, would send their employers bankrupt, and hence their job loss. There is also a growing resistance to restrictions imposed upon union activities by the amended labour law.

Besides the frustrated workers, there are infuriated victims of land grabs, embittered union activists, discontented environmentalists, resentful suffering migrant workers, irritated youth over border issues, disgruntled public servants, and the rest of the CNRP 3,000,000 voters. The size of those who have not much to lose is growing; and all are waiting for the tipping point.

Now, it becomes so ironic that only Sam Rainsy could rescue Hun Sen from the tipping point that would likely end the latter’s regime. Will he? Should he? Would he?

His prominent colleagues abroad and grass-rooted supporters at home declare they are ready for his return and on-location leadership. They may or may not consider possible impacts on personal welfare of their CNRP acting president, even though he often declares it is not his major concern.

There are thousands of excuses for Sam Rainsy to stay away from the country he says he wants to rescue from Hun Sen. None will be more grateful than Hun Sen if Sam Rainsy decides to rescue him instead.

But there is only one reason to go for the tipping point.

Ung Bun Ang

15i19

Fake News You Can Use

It seems the pressure of the impending removal of the EU and US tax concessions from the Hun Sen regime have taken its toll on the man’s sanity. He grants Pseng-Pseng (PP) an exclusive interview.

PP: Thanks for your time, sire.

HS: Consider you are lucky that I talk to you. Shoot.

PP: Why do you remove Camcontrol from border checkpoints?

HS: Partly to be ready to counter the impact of a possible loss of EU and US tax concessions, which will make our exports there less competitive. The Camcontrol’s removal will make Cambodian products more competitive.

PP: What is the role of Camcontrol, sire?

HS: You tell me.

PP: According to its website, Camcontrol is to inspect imports and exports for product fraud. People understand it is to ensure that products imported into the country are of quality.

HS: Is that so?

PP: Without Camcontrol, fake or expired products will have a free flow into the country...

HS: We have had plenty of them right now even with Camcontrol. We want more of cheap goods. You like to pay less for stuff, don’t you?

PP: But what is a link between those cheap imports and the loss of EU and US tax concessions for the Cambodian garment exports?

HS: You’re a moron. A loss of tax concessions makes Cambodian exports expensive. The cheap imports will force local products to be cheap, which will make their exports cheap and competitive. This is another one of my brilliant win-win policies; this time in economics. I never cease to amaze myself for being so brilliant.

PP: But factory workers income will be squeezed out to make profits for factories and their political backers.

HS: Well, that’s my win-win policy, not win-win-win policy. Those workers are lucky to have their jobs at all. Besides, there is a complete freedom for them to go work abroad, if you haven’t notice.

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Pseng-Pseng is published irregularly. Previous issues are archived at pseng-pseng.blogspot.com