A Tipping Point in 2019?

“ខ្ញុំបានប្រាប់អាកាសយាន កុំហាមឃាត់ក្នុងការដឹកអាចង្រៃនេះចូលស្រុក ព្រោះយើងត្រូវដាក់ខ្នោះវា ព្រោះយើងតាមចាប់វាយូរហើយ ចាប់មិនបាន។ ឥឡូវវាមកឲ្យយើងចាប់ហើយ រឿងអីវាមិនស្រួល? រឿងអីវាមិនស្រួល? សុំអញ្ជើញមក ខ្ញុំក៍បានត្រៀមខ្លួនហើយដែរ អញ្ចឹងត្រៀមទៅ។”

នាយក​​រដ្ឋ​មន្ត្រីហ៊ុនសែន ថ្ងៃទី ២៦ ធ្នូ ២០១៨    វិទ្យុបារាំងអន្តរជាតិ

A reliable source in Hun Sen’s inner-circle claims Hun Sen is being frustrated with a dilemma that only Sam Rainsy can help resolve. He is often heard giving vent to his exasperation by yelling at others in his city residence. He has held frequent meetings in the last few weeks with a small group of his close confidants, namely CPP vice president Say Chhum. A Chinese adviser also attends those discussions.

The Hun Sen conundrum is what and how he will respond if Sam Rainsy lands at Phnom Penh Airport. There are three basic options under his consideration.

One, as he blusters, he can arrest his nemesis, lock him up, and throws away the key. This may lead to a revolt by die-hard supporters and other followers, which can spin out of his control. Two, he can let the nemesis roam free after his return. This may breathe new life into the opposition party, which could consolidate and grow beyond his control. Three, he can opt for a Kem Ley option. This may lead to an instant uncontrollable popular uprising. Half of the 2013 and 2017 voters support his opposition. Kem Ley’s funeral procession attracts hundreds of thousand mourners that could have turned rebellious at the time to end his rule.

All the responses point to a possible tipping point that can develop into something Hun Sen’s armed forces will no longer be in control. Hun Sen is right to be worried about the tipping point. There has been a rise in workers unrest despite stricter labour and union laws. Garment workers have been demanding outstanding seniority payments in line with the amended labour law. Hun Sen uses labour exploitation argument to threaten the workers that their claim, though legal, would send their employers bankrupt, and hence their job loss. There is also a growing resistance to restrictions imposed upon union activities by the amended labour law.

Besides the frustrated workers, there are infuriated victims of land grabs, embittered union activists, discontented environmentalists, resentful suffering migrant workers, irritated youth over border issues, disgruntled public servants, and the rest of the CNRP 3,000,000 voters. The size of those who have not much to lose is growing; and all are waiting for the tipping point.

Now, it becomes so ironic that only Sam Rainsy could rescue Hun Sen from the tipping point that would likely end the latter’s regime. Will he? Should he? Would he?

His prominent colleagues abroad and grass-rooted supporters at home declare they are ready for his return and on-location leadership. They may or may not consider possible impacts on personal welfare of their CNRP acting president, even though he often declares it is not his major concern.

There are thousands of excuses for Sam Rainsy to stay away from the country he says he wants to rescue from Hun Sen. None will be more grateful than Hun Sen if Sam Rainsy decides to rescue him instead.

But there is only one reason to go for the tipping point.

Ung Bun Ang

15i19

Fake News You Can Use

It seems the pressure of the impending removal of the EU and US tax concessions from the Hun Sen regime have taken its toll on the man’s sanity. He grants Pseng-Pseng (PP) an exclusive interview.

PP: Thanks for your time, sire.

HS: Consider you are lucky that I talk to you. Shoot.

PP: Why do you remove Camcontrol from border checkpoints?

HS: Partly to be ready to counter the impact of a possible loss of EU and US tax concessions, which will make our exports there less competitive. The Camcontrol’s removal will make Cambodian products more competitive.

PP: What is the role of Camcontrol, sire?

HS: You tell me.

PP: According to its website, Camcontrol is to inspect imports and exports for product fraud. People understand it is to ensure that products imported into the country are of quality.

HS: Is that so?

PP: Without Camcontrol, fake or expired products will have a free flow into the country...

HS: We have had plenty of them right now even with Camcontrol. We want more of cheap goods. You like to pay less for stuff, don’t you?

PP: But what is a link between those cheap imports and the loss of EU and US tax concessions for the Cambodian garment exports?

HS: You’re a moron. A loss of tax concessions makes Cambodian exports expensive. The cheap imports will force local products to be cheap, which will make their exports cheap and competitive. This is another one of my brilliant win-win policies; this time in economics. I never cease to amaze myself for being so brilliant.

PP: But factory workers income will be squeezed out to make profits for factories and their political backers.

HS: Well, that’s my win-win policy, not win-win-win policy. Those workers are lucky to have their jobs at all. Besides, there is a complete freedom for them to go work abroad, if you haven’t notice.

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