Covid-19 Bewilders Hun Sen

 

ប៉ុន្តែ អារឿង [កូវីដ ១៩] ដែលមិនគួរខ្លាច ទៅជានាំគ្នាខ្លាចពេញទឹកពេញដី ទិញអង្ករ ទិញអី។ អាហ្នឹងខ្លាចជ្រុល។»

 

នាយករដ្ឋមន្ដ្រី ហ៊ុន សែន ថ្ងៃទី ១១ ខែមីនា ឆ្នាំ ២០២០ ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍

 

«​នៅពេល​ខាងមុខនេះ យុទ្ធនាការ​ចាក់​វ៉ាក់សាំង​របស់​យើង​នឹងធ្វើ​ក្នុង​ទ្រង់ទ្រាយ​ធំ ហើយ​នឹង​មាន​អន្តរាគមន៍​ពី​ពេទ្យ​ទៅ​ពី​ថ្នាក់ជាតិ​ចូលរួម​ផងដែរ ដែល​គម្រោង​យើង​គឺ​ចាក់​ឱ្យ​បាន​ចំនួន​ ១ ​លានដូស ​ក្នុងពេល​ ១ ​ខែ​។»

នាយករដ្ឋមន្ដ្រី ហ៊ុន សែន ថ្ងៃទី ៣០ ខែមីនា ឆ្នាំ ២០២១ ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍

 

“The primary hit to growth is from a contraction in tourism… Our baseline assumption is for 2021 visitor arrivals to be about 80 percent below 2019 levels, marking only a marginal recovery from 2020.”

 

Moody’s Investors Service, 31 March 2021, Khmer Times

 

For the one who claims he is not worried about Covid-19, Hun Sen’s responses to an intensified community transmission of the virus reveal anything but calm and strategic, especially when infection rate and death toll have begun to take off.

Several key decisions Hun Sen makes to manage the community transmission have largely been on an ad hoc basis. First, he has just set up two new committees to oversee vaccine acquisitions and funding, and inoculations programme. This is about five weeks after the first batch of Sinopharm vaccines landed in February. He must be overwhelmed by Covid to be so ill-prepared.

Second, Hun Sen makes a grandiose announcement that one million doses of vaccines are to be dispensed per month, i.e, 33,330 doses per day. From 11 February when a vaccination began to 16 March, however, his vaccination programme has managed only a daily average of 8,824 doses. He has little hope of closing this huge gap between his words and capability.

Third, he instructs all bodies of Covid-related death be cremated claiming there is insufficient space for burials. He allocates ten hectares of land for cremations for the Phnom Penh region, and further land for regional cremations, as if the 4,932 pagodas throughout Cambodia that usually come with a cremation site each cannot do the jobs. He must be so irresolute that he allows burials 24 hours later.

Indeed, Hun Sen could do with some good news while his vaccination programme is limping. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, not Economy and Finance (MEF), issues a rosy forecast of a GDP growth of 3.5% for 2021. Why does a diplomat, not economist, do the economics work?

This explains why the forecast is more like a public relations exercise: to soften impact of the Covid ferocity. Garment employer group GMAC refuses to endorse a projected 4.6% growth for their industry. Cambodian Logistics Association estimates transport volumes are down about 20% after the February wave. Agriculture Minister Veng Sakhon says export of milled rice in 2021 March quarter drops by a third, compared to 2020 March quarter. Moody has no faith in tourism – another major sector – for a quick recovery. The MEF projects construction and property – two other major sectors – to grow in 2021 by 2.9% and 2.7%, respectively. The expectation is before the February outbreak, which makes the 3.5% GDP growth more unlikely. Meanwhile, nine international business chambers request a delay in lodging 2020 tax returns, which would help ease any pressure on their business cashflows.

Thus, it is clear bewildered Hun Sen has let Cambodia slide into a herd immunity by natural process. This process occurs when Covid-19 is spread, by design or incompetence, to the extent that the virus itself loses its momentum perhaps leaving a small population uninfected. The WHO rejects this natural process as it will put enormous pressure on health system and too many lives at risks. It prefers an effective mass vaccination to achieve the herd immunity, which the Hun Sen programme is failing.

 

Ung Bun Ang

05iv21

 

Fake News You Can Trust

 

A stern commitment to anything is admirable. A possible downside is that the commitment can be so blind that it disorients one to the extent that one can no longer sort the shit from the clay.

Jean Francoise Tan of Radio France Internatinale is totally committed to China; he assumes that benefactor China is inherently stupid in providing all benefits to Cambodia without any return. He also assumes beneficiary Cambodia is smart for securing all benefits without paying any price. Since when has China been stupid in dealing with foreign countries with free lunches? Since when has Cambodia outsmarted their “partners” in their foreign relations?

However, it is useful for Hun Sen to have on his side such committed intellectuals whose thinking is driven by a tunnel vision.

 

 

«រុញច្រានចិន ខ្ញុំអត់យល់ស្រប រាល់ថ្ងៃនេះការអភិវឌ្ឍន៍បើអត់មានចិន នៅបររទេះគោនៅឡើយ។ ចិនជាអ្នកជួយជំនួយអភិវឌ្ឍន៍ទី១នៅកម្ពុជា ចិនជាអ្នកផ្តល់ជំនួយឥតសំណងលេខ១ ចិនជាអ្នកឱ្យកម្ពុជាខ្ចីច្រើនជាងគេ។ ចិនជាអ្នកជួយកម្ពុជាផលិតហេដ្ឋារចនាសម្ព័ន្ធដល់កម្ពុជា យើងត្រូវរុញចិនចោលឬយ៉ាងម៉េច? ​»

 

អ្នកវិភាគបញ្ហានយោបាយជាតិ និងអន្តរជាតិ នៅវិទ្យុបារាំងអន្តរជាតិ ហ្សង់-ហ្វ្រង់ស័រ តាន់

 

 

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