Hun Sen’s Successor: Sam Rainsy or Sar Kheng?
“This is why I need to say this again
and again – while Hun Sen is holding power, a coup will not happen.”
Prime
Minister Hun Sen, 25 January 2019, The Phnom Penh Post
«បើខ្ញុំឲ្យហ៊ុនសែនចាប់ខ្ញុំ
ខ្ញុំក្លាយ ទៅជាកែមឡី ខ្ញុំក្លាយទៅជាកឹមសុខា។ ឥឡូវកែមឡីជាវីរបុរសមែន
ប៉ុន្តែកែមឡីមានបានជួយប្រជាពលរដ្ឋ ឲ្យរំដោះខ្លួនពីរបបផ្ដាច់ការមកដល់ពេលនេះទេ? អត់ទេ។
លោកកឹមសុខាឲ្យហ៊ុនសែនចាប់ ឥឡូវនេះរងការឃុំឃាំងពីពន្ធនាគារ មកឃុំឃាំងក្នុងផ្ទះ
អត់មានសេរីភាព តើជួយរំដោះប្រជាពលរដ្ឋ បានទេ? ជួយទៅ បំផុសបំផុលអន្តរជាតិបានទេ?... ខ្ញុំមិនទៅឆោត
ឲ្យគេចាប់ងាយៗ ឲ្យគេសម្លាប់ងាយៗ ទេ។ យើងធ្វើអី យើងត្រូវតែលៃលកឲ្យ មានលទ្ធភាពឈ្នះ
ឲ្យប្រជារាស្ត្រឈ្នះ យើងរៀបចំផែនការណាមួយដែលជោគជ័យ យើងមិនទៅធ្វើ លេងៗ
ឲ្យគេកម្ចាត់យើងងាយៗ អ៊ីចឹងទេ។ បំណងរបស់ខ្ញុំ គឺចង់ឈ្នះដោយសន្តិវិធី។
ប្រធានស្តីទីគណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិ សម
រង្ស៊ី ថ្ងៃទី១៨
ខែកុម្ភៈ ឆ្នាំ២០១៩ ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍
“គ្រប់ជ័យជម្នះរបស់គណបក្សប្រជាជនកម្ពុជា
មិនមែនកើតឡើងដោយសារតែអច្ឆរិយបុគ្គលណាមួយឡើយ
តែគឺជាការប្រមូលផ្តុំនូវការខិតខំប្រឹងប្រែងរបស់ថ្នាក់ដឹកនាំ
និងការចូលរួមគាំទ្រពីប្រជាពលរដ្ឋ ។”
រដ្ឋមន្ត្រីក្រសួងមហាផ្ទៃ
ស ខេង ថ្ងៃទី១១ ខែកុម្ភៈ
ឆ្នាំ២០១៩ វិទ្យុបារាំងអន្តរជាតិ
“គេមិនយកកម្លាំងយោធាទៅអនុវត្តន៍ដីកាទេ... មានអី នឹកយោធា ទៅប្រើយោធា រដ្ឋច្បាស់អន្តរធាន ហើយ... យើងគិតតែមួយជ្រុង ពីយើងកាន់អំណាច
ប៉ុន្តែកាន់អំណាច វាមិនមែនអាងទៅលើកំភ្លើង នោះទេ។ វាមិនមែនអញ្ចឹងទេ មិនមែនទេ។ ស្ថានការណ៏ឥឡូវនេះ
គឺយើងលេងអញ្ចឹងអត់បាន ហើយទៅមុខនេះ រឹតតែមិនបានទៀត។”
រដ្ឋមន្រ្តីក្រសួងមហាផ្ទៃ សខេង ថ្ងៃទី១៣ កុម្ភៈ ២០១៩ វិទ្យុអាស៊ីសេរី
Hun Sen has issued a stern warning: while he
is charge, no coup d’état will ever happen, let alone succeed. He may or may
not be right. There are two possible sources of a coup: Sam Rainsy revolt or a CPP
insider.
The revolt is unlikely, despite a cacophony
surrounding Sam Rainsy’s talk of going home. First, he is risk-averse, incapable
of capitalising on what usually arises from jailed and/or dead heroes. He claims
dead heroes like Kem Ley, cannot help liberating people from dictatorship. He
says jailed Kem Sokha cannot and does not influence international opinions or
actions.
Obviously, he trivialises impacts of jailed or
dead heroes, like Gandhi, Mandela, Luther King, Aquino, etc… that initiate turning
points in the world. He fails to fully appreciate why the US and EU currently put
pressures on Hun Sen. Then again, for each dead or jailed hero in human
history, there are thousands of politicians who are nothing more than just
political irritations to their nemesis.
Second, Sam Rainsy still speaks of peaceful
means when opposing a mafia-like Hun Sen whose ruthless killing is legendary. He
may forget his previous humiliating encounters with Hun Sen when offering his
written apologies to his nemesis in exchange for Hun Sen’s peace and mercy.
Sam Rainsy says he is waiting for a right
moment to return.
Perhaps, after a CPP implosion that has
tormented Hun Sen.
CPP’s Sar Kheng has already opened fires. First,
he claims all the CPP victories have not been achieved by any single
extraordinary person; they have come from a collective effort of the whole CPP
leadership. Sar Kheng must be disgusted with the recently inaugurated Win-Win Monument
that glorifies only Hun Sen. He demands the local media refer to the Royal
Government of Cambodia, not “Hun Sen” government.
Second, Sar Kheng, who controls the police
force, takes a firm stance against military groups that commit violent
crackdowns on victims of land disputes in Preah Sihanouk and Kratie provinces. Even
though he knows the military is under a full control of Hun Sen’s son and his
close cohorts, Sar Kheng pulls no punches when declaring that powerful people
cannot use armed forces to serve court orders. He is adamant they cannot rely
on their guns, not now, not in the future. He has drawn a line in the sand.
A bad omen for Hun Sen is that Ministry of
National Defence spokesman Chhum Socheat comes out to support Sar Kheng’s
position. This should not, however, surprise Hun Sen as he knows Sar Kheng is well-connected.
A secret ballot Hun Sen conducts in early January reveals the almost 1,000 members
of the CPP Central Committee prefer Sar Kheng, not Hun Manet, as their next premier.
Anyhow, while it is uncertain who will be left
standing after a duel of the CPP titans, the risk averse Sam Rainsy will miss
out. A new Sar Kheng government would be unlikely to welcome him home and his
role. He may remain a political outcast.
Ung Bun Ang
22ii19
Fake News You Can Use
After
his trip to China, Hun Sen agrees to sit down with Pseng-Pseng Frank Chat.
FC: According to you, Sire, your recent trip to
China is very successful. Congratulations.
HS: Yes, I rake in the Chinese yuan by the
billion, and Xi’s special assurance that China will remain behind me all the
way to fight the EU and US nonsensical trade pressures on me.
FC: How did you convince China to do so much for
you?
HS: I reported to Xi, among other issues, the
political situations in Cambodia after the general elections, government reform
programs, my determination to prevent external interference into Cambodia’s
internal affairs, and my request for more Chinese investors in Cambodia.
FC: Did President Xi report to you internal
political situations in China and his government programs for China?
HS: No, he didn’t. Why should he? You must know China
is a sovereign State adhering to a principle that it allows no foreigners,
including me, to meddle in its internal affairs.
FC: But why do you report Cambodian problems to
China if, like you say, Cambodia is a sovereign state?
HS: Well, you need to put out your dirty linen for
your benefactor to see that you really need their assistance and what they can
do to help.
FC: So, when you ask foreigners for help sort out
Cambodian internal affairs it is not an interference; otherwise, they are
meddling. Is that right?
HS: Yes, just like when I asked Vietnam to come
in. It is a quintessence of my win-win policy – Vietnam wins, and I win.
FC: Is it true that the CPP Central Committee choose
Sar Kheng, not your son Manet, to succeed you?
HS: Yes, but you know only my opinion counts.
FC: Sorry, Sire, I must run now. I can hear
something ticking…
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