«ជោគជ័យហើយ ទៅនាំគ្នាទះដៃបានហើយ ។»
CPP Prime Minister Hun Sen, 22 July 2014, VOA
“For the election law,
we need to take time, it’s not just a couple of days. With the political
resolution from the 22nd, we still need to discuss some major problems like the
NEC and the new voter list and the autonomous budget of the NEC.”
Sak Setha, CPP delegate in the electoral reform joint working
group, 30 July 2014, The Cambodia Daily
“In fact, the
swearing-in ceremony can be done at any time, even today, and then we can keep
talking about the election reforms and amendments to the law and Constitution
at the same time.”
Cheam Yeap, CPP delegate in the electoral reform joint working
group, 30 July 2014, The Cambodia Daily
“The two parties didn’t
reject my conditions, which means they accept my conditions . . . Maybe I need
to make another statement to remind [them of] my conditions again.”
Consensus National Election Committee candidate Pung Chhiv Kek,
31 July 2014, The Phnom Penh Post
“This is the signal of a
problem. After [being] a member of parliament for 34 years . . . I would like
to say that the constitution stipulates only members of the senate and members
of parliament have parliamentary immunity.”
Senior CPP lawmaker Cheam Yeap, 31 July 2014, The Phnom Penh
Post
Hun Sen is
jubilent in many photos taken after the 22 July agreement. He must plan to
laugh all the way to the bank after seemingly securing legitimacy for his
regime as long as he wishes. He is right the worst the 22 July agreement could
do to him is to let him retain whatever that has kept him in power until now.
But
then the CNRP, and a grim Kem Sokha at the time, may wipe the smile off Hun
Sen’s face by forcing him to swallow a dose of lemon juice. There are conditions
before the CNRP rushing into parliament: among others, the ninth member of a
new National Election Committee must be selected with consensus between the two
parties.
Now
the consensus candidate, Pung Chhiv Kek, imposes her own conditions before accepting
the role: the new committee needs immunity; it must be allowed to be
independent and autonomous in administration: funding, staff recruitment, and control.
This would be a small step of a soft-spoken Pung Chhiv Kek, and a giant step
for the Cambodian electoral system.
Would
Hun Sen agree to these conditions before the CNRP takes up their seats in the
parliament?
Hun
Sen seems facing a tough choice: being a premier of a half-empty parliament for
as long as he likes, or being a premier endorsed by a full parliament but with
so much uncertainly after the next election.
His
dream of a legitimate parliament may just become a nightmare for him a few
years down the road. If he agreed to the reform conditions, it would be likely
that he would lose control over the next election outcomes. However, he may not
be too worried about this prospect. The loss in 1993 elections over which he
had little control did not stop him from flexing his muscles to force himself
into a coalition government. But again, he may not fancy a revisit of the 1993
scenario. Or, he may not be allowed to pull the stunt again.
Hence,
the other option with the half parliament looks increasingly attactive. The
excuse is perfect – there are no timelines in the 22 July agreement for negotiating
and implementing reform details, which means anything can be dragged on to keep
the status quo and political deadlock in force.
There
are a few indications that Hun Sen may not be so keen with this giant step of
electoral reforms. First, he has yet to clearly accept the demands of the ninth
member, eventhough he formally approves her appointment before the conditions. Second,
CPP delegates in joint working groups begin to speak of research necessity,
time consuming, etc… all of which are usually used to justify any delay or a
prelude to another crisis. It is well known that the CPP can move in a flash to
get anything, no matter how complex, done when it suits them. Otherwise, it
would be easier to move the mountain to Mohammed.
Tough
choice, but Hun Sen will find a chicken way out.
Ung
Bun Ang
01viii14
(Pseng-Pseng
is published on the first, tenth, and twentieth day of every month. Previous
issues are archived at pseng-pseng.blogspot.com)
No comments:
Post a Comment